Source: Global Times
[Global Times Comprehensive Report] Less than two weeks ago, the picture of a large-scale gushing of the "North Stream" pipeline leaking on the sea surface shocked the world. On the 8th, the Crimea Bridge in the thick smoke and fire quickly landed on the homepage of major media around the world. On that day, a truck exploded violently on the bridge, and the adjacent oil tank train caught fire, and finally the two bridge decks collapsed. When reporting on this, the media almost mentioned the extraordinary significance of the Crimean Bridge to Russia: it is not only a key supply line for the Russian army, but also a symbol of Russia's control of Crimean Peninsula . Some Russian lawmakers and media accused Ukraine of being the mastermind. Ukrainian officials have not yet made any statement or response to this matter. Experts interviewed by a reporter from " Global Times " believe that the destruction of the Crimean Bridge will become a landmark event in the Russian-Ukrainian war, or may lead to Russia's high-intensity retaliation against Ukraine, which means that the conflict between the two sides will escalate. Who created the explosion? Is there any shadow of the West behind it? How will this affect the Russian-Ukrainian war? The "North Stream" pipeline leak incident was still Rashomon , and the explosion of the Crimea Bridge added a new mystery. What is particularly worrying is that once the damage to critical infrastructure becomes a "conventional means" in conflict, the security risks and global tensions faced by all countries will rise sharply.
ignited a fire of several meters
According to Russian Tashi 8, the Russian National Counter-Terrorism Commission issued a statement on the same day saying that at 6:07 Moscow time on the 8th, a truck exploded on the road bridge of the Crimea Bridge, causing a fire to the 7 train tankers on the adjacent railway bridge. Crimea Regional Chief Executive Akshonov said that the incident caused the collapse of two bridge decks on one side of the highway bridge. According to visual observation, the bridge body from Kerch to Taman is currently intact. Preliminary data shows that the incident has killed 3 people.
From the video released by Russian News Agency on the 38th, we can see that a fire several meters high was lit on the Crimea Bridge, and the bridge deck collapsed and fell into the sea. According to the British " Guardian ", the video shows that accompanied by huge black smoke columns, the fire engulfed at least two carriages of a train on the bridge. Witnesses said explosions could be heard several kilometers away. According to the All-Russian Insurance Company Alliance, the losses caused by the explosion and fire of the bridge may reach 200 million to 500 million rubles (1 ruble is about 0.116 yuan).
spans Kerch Strait , connecting Black Sea and Azov Sea , consisting of two parallel highway bridges and railway bridges, with a total length of about 19 kilometers. It is currently the longest bridge in Europe and is known as Russia's "Century Project". The highway bridge part was completed in May 2018, and the railway bridge part was opened to traffic at the end of the following year. AP said the bridge was previously the only land route connecting the Crimean Peninsula with Russia's mainland until the Russian army captured more Ukrainian territory at the northern end of the Azov Sea, especially around the city of Mariupol, and opened another land route to Crimea earlier this year.
Crimea Bridge is of great strategic significance. AFP said the bridge was built according to the order of Putin , and in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the bridge is a key supply line for Russian military personnel, military equipment and logistics. The Guardian said that the bridge is highly symbolic for Russia and is a symbol of Russia's control of the Crimean Peninsula.
Russian Presidential Press Secretary Peskov said on the 8th that President Putin has instructed the Russian Prime Minister to establish a government committee on the emergency situation on the Crimea Bridge to find out the cause of the incident as soon as possible and eliminate the impact. Russian Federal Emergency Minister Kulunkov and Transport Minister Saveliyev went to the scene as presidential representatives.
The Russian Federal Investigation Committee announced on the 8th that it had initiated an investigation into the Crimea Bridge explosion, and then released a message saying that the investigators had identified the vehicle involved, and the owner was a resident of of the Krasnodar Krai region. The investigators are currently investigating the place of residence. " Russian newspaper " reported that it is not clear whether the explosion was a suicide attack or a remote detonation. The explosion happened to occur when the oil tank train passed, indicating that it was directly controlled by the driver.The Moscow Communist Youth League Member Daily said that there are checkpoints at the entrances on both sides of the Crimea Bridge, but only random inspections are carried out on bridge vehicles.
who made the explosion
" Washington Post " reported that the explosion on the Crimea Bridge triggered celebrations in Kiev . Ukrainian government officials cheered the incident and posted pictures of the bridge collapse and videos of the explosion moment on social media. The Ukrainian government did not make a statement on the cause of the explosion, but its official Twitter account posted a post to mock it: "Pain burns." Podolak, an adviser to the Ukrainian presidential office, said on Twitter: "Crimea, bridge, a beginning. All illegal things should be destroyed, all stolen things must be returned to Ukraine, and Russian occupation will be expelled."
In the view of the Russian Satellite News Agency, Podolak is acknowledging Ukraine's responsibility for the "terrorist attack" on the Crimea Bridge. Previously, he claimed that Ukraine regarded the Crimean Bridge as a "legitimate military target." Crimean Parliament Speaker Konstantinov accused on Telegram on the 8th of "Ukrainian saboteurs stretched their blood-stained hands towards the Crimean Bridge." Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zakharova posted a message saying: "The Kiev regime's response to the destruction of civil infrastructure proves its terrorist nature."
Ukraine has not yet responded to the Russian accusations. Pravda quoted anonymous sources from the country's law enforcement agency as saying that the blow-up of the Crimea Bridge was a special operation of the Ukrainian National Security Agency. But the agency did not comment on the matter. Russian "Opinion" reported that Estonian Foreign Minister Rein Salu called the explosion on the Crimea Bridge a "brave act" and congratulated Ukrainian special forces. He believed it was their actions and said Estonia welcomed the action.
Russian News Agency reported that Zakharova responded strongly to the statements of the Estonian Foreign Minister on the 8th. She compared the remarks of Estonian Foreign Minister with the former Polish Foreign Minister Sikorsky's previous thanks to the United States for blowing up the "North Stream" natural gas pipeline, saying that murder, destruction, provocation and fabrication of criminal logic linking NATO countries. Bashkin, a member of the Constitutional Legislative Council of the Russian Federal Council (Upper House), believes that the West may have been involved in the incident because Kiev will not conduct a major attack without consultation with the West and being directed by the West.
《New York Times 》 said that destroying the Crimean Bridge is one of the hardest blows Ukraine can deal to Russia. At present, the degree of damage to the bridge is difficult to immediately assess, but any traffic obstacles may have a profound impact on Russia's offensive capabilities in southern Ukraine. This will of course infuriate Kremlin .
《Moscow Communist Youth League Member Daily》 stated that with the explosion on the Crimea Bridge, Kiev crossed the "red line". Korotechenko, editor-in-chief of Russian Defense magazine, said that this incident means that there is no longer a "red line" in Russia's strike on Ukrainian targets, and a comprehensive retaliation against Kiev's decision-making center - expanding to all those who plan, order and carry out the "terrorist attack" on the Crimean Bridge. Oleg Morozov, a member of the Russian Party’s Congress of the Russian State Duma (Lower House), said that if Russia does not respond "appropriately", such incidents will occur more frequently. Russian News Agency reported on the 8th that Russian Defense Minister Shoigu appointed Sergei Sulovikin as the commander-in-chief of the Russian-European regional joint force for special military operations against Ukraine.
Hong Kong Assistant Researcher at the Russian Research Center of East China Normal University analyzed to the Global Times reporter on the 8th that in the eyes of some people, Russia has no choice. If the explosion on the Crimea Bridge is eventually proven to be a deliberate attack, Russia can only use high-intensity retaliation to make the outside world believe in Russia's determination to draw the "red line" and stick to the "red line". Wang Xiaoquan, a researcher at the Institute of Eastern Europe and Central Asia of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, who holds a similar view, said that this means that the risk of civil infrastructure attacks in the rear of Russia and Ukraine will be greatly increased in the future, and the war trauma of both sides will be more difficult to heal.
A bad signal
To what extent will the damage to the Crimea Bridge affect the battlefield trend and strength comparison of Russia and Ukraine? The Ukrainian State News Agency quoted Ukrainian experts as saying on the 8th that about 75% of the Russian military's supply was provided through Crimea. At the same time, the damage to the bridge made it impossible for Russian mobilizers to further move through Crimea to the direction of Zaporoze or Khlsong . The slowdown of the Russian army's mobilization will cause more problems in its defense and offense in southern Ukraine.
"More importantly, in the Russian side, the Crimean Bridge is symbolic," Cui Heng told the Global Times reporter that it represents Putin's reputation, the centripetal force of the Crimean people for Russia and the pride of the Russians. The attack on the bridge was intended to hit the morale of Russia. However, Wang Xiaoquan believes that the damage to the Crimea Bridge has limited impact on the battlefield situation and power balance. Because on the eastern battlefield of Ukraine, the main logistics support and troop transportation of Russian Army did not come from the Crimean Peninsula, and the Crimean Bridge is only one of the transportation channels connecting the mainland of the Crimean Peninsula, and transportation can also be carried out through ferries and other means.
Crimea Regional Chief Executive Akshanov posted on Telegram later on the 8th that road traffic on the Crimea Bridge has reopened. The Russian Ministry of Transport said that the railway is being repaired and train operations are expected to resume at 8 p.m. that day.
It is worth noting that the explosion of the Crimea Bridge was another destruction of critical infrastructure after the "North Stream" pipeline leak not long ago. Analysts told the Global Times reporter that the above two incidents are both "off-trading moves" other than conventional military operations. Using these "off-trading moves" is a very bad signal that the relevant parties in the conflict have broken the rules. Cui Heng analyzed that in the short term, this means that the conflict spiral escalates, and Russia and Ukraine have already shown hostility to "death". From a broader perspective, once the destruction of critical infrastructure becomes the norm in the future, the security risks faced by all countries will escalate.
