In the first half of the year, the concept of "housing prices must rise" was still deeply rooted in people's hearts. Two months later, the limelight of the property market suddenly turned and pessimism spread.
Turning point was that on July 31, the Politburo held a meeting, and expressed his attitude towards real estate: resolutely curb the rise in housing prices!
Compared with the past, the central government’s statement on real estate is the strictest in history. Although the currency is loose, the “water” is not allowed to enter real estate this time, and housing prices cannot rise even if they have a penny.
China's asset bubble is too big. Once the expectations of rising housing prices are broken, many people's mentality will collapse, and selling will follow.
htmlIn early August, the market broke out about the "Xiamen real estate market collapsed". Some self-media reported that "Xiamen's land prices were almost halved compared to 2016. Some high-priced land in 2016 dare not open, and some can only sell it at a loss.Compared with the peak period in March 2017, the Xiamen island had dropped by 10,000 to 15,000 yuan per square meter, and the outside of the island fell by 60,000 to 10,000 yuan per square meter." Although the investigation later found that the decline in housing prices in Xiamen was far less severe than the above, it is still an indisputable fact that the transaction volume has shrunk significantly.
Data from the Xiamen Land, Resources and Real Estate Administration Bureau showed that the transaction area of second-hand houses in Xiamen in the first half of the year was 713,000 square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 64%; the number of transactions was 6995 units, a year-on-year decrease of 65%.
House prices have fallen, why is Xiamen leading the way? It's because the bubble is too big.
The surge in housing prices in Xiamen has far deviated from the purchasing power of the people. Its total economic output is only around 50 in the country, but housing prices once rushed to the back of Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen.
In addition, Xiamen's housing prices and rents are the highest in the country, reaching an astonishing 1,100 times, making it the king of bubbles. In other words, if you only rely on renting a house in Xiamen, it will take more than 90 years to recover the cost. Now that you are resolutely curbing the rise in housing prices, those real estate speculators who have increased leverage will definitely run away quickly and even sell at discounts.
According to the characteristics of Xiamen, what will be the next city where housing prices will collapse?
Real estate speculation is the same as stock speculation. Even if the bull market falls by 30%, everyone thinks it is a normal pullback, and the future is still bullish with expectations. Is the change in the real estate market this time temporary? land auction market shows future expectations.
In the first seven months of 2018, the total number of unsold cases in 300 cities reached 258, a 59% higher than the same period in 2014. 2014 was the year with the highest number of failed auctions in recent years, with a total of 345 unsold cases.
It should be noted that after August, the situation of land failing to shoot has become more and more serious.
htmlOn August 10, Taiyuan City held an "epic" large-scale land auction, with the total starting price of 8 golden plots in hot spots of 13.082 billion yuan, but all failed to sell.On the same day, Hangzhou, the hottest land market in the first half of the year, three residential lands were sold at the lowest price. In July, a total of 31 plots of land were sold in the ten districts of Hangzhou, many of which were sold at the lowest price, and even the transaction price of residential land in the same sector fell by more than 30%.
At the same time, on August 10, Nanjing sold two residential lands in the Jiangbei New District, and although it attracted the participation of many real estate companies, the final transaction price was reduced by nearly 3,000 yuan/square meter compared with the previous "land king" price.
The land market is a barometer of the property market. If the various land kings in 2016 were the engines of rising housing prices in more than a year after the rise in regulation pressure, then the decline in transaction volume and the land market have cooled down may be the early sign of the market's downturn.
The land obtained in 2018 will enter the market one or two years later. Will housing prices rise due to supply and demand contradictions?
will not rise now, and it will be okay to rise again in two years. This is the last hope of many real estate speculators. Unfortunately, the property tax is coming... Many uncles and house sisters are busy selling real estate. At that time, you will find a very magical phenomenon. It turns out that there are so many houses in China!
Previously, the broker of Mai Tian Real Estate released information saying that an owner in Beijing sold 41 luxury houses at a price of less than 20%-30%. The market price of this batch of houses ranges from about 100,000 to 190,000 yuan per square meter.
Although the relevant person in charge of Maitian Real Estate said afterwards that the above-mentioned properties have not been fully verified, and some properties are not real.But I believe that this situation may become a common phenomenon after the introduction of property tax.
Recently, real estate tax has been frequently mentioned by the authorities, and it seems inevitable that it will be implemented faster.
In June this year, real estate registration has been connected nationwide. National networking technology is not difficult, but it is as much as the delisting of A-share junk stocks. However, this problem has been solved now, which means that the property tax is really not far away.
According to a reporter from the China Times, the draft Real Estate Tax Law has been initially formed and is currently being refined and improved. According to the legislative plan within the year, the Real Estate Tax Law is a preliminary review project and is not included in the legislative work within the year.
According to the plan requirements, relevant parties will promptly investigate and draft such projects and will be reviewed in 2018 or later years depending on the situation.
Why is the launch of property tax imminent?
Is it reasonable to impose property tax without considering the nature of my country's special land, because it is useless to discuss it. , from the basic functions of property tax, is indeed conducive to the redistribution of residents' income and promote social fairness.
The introduction of property tax has increased the flexibility of real estate regulation, and adjusted the holding cost through tax adjustments to achieve supply and demand adjustment.
Of course, the most important thing is to increase revenue for local governments, exports are blocked, and consumption continues to decline. Therefore, my country has begun to engage in infrastructure again. Recently, we have seen that many infrastructure projects that have been temporarily suspended before have been re-introduced into approval. Starting from the second half of the year, the engine of economic growth will be led by infrastructure to relay real estate. The biggest question of
is, where does the money come from?
The land sales revenue of local governments will also be greatly reduced if they do not allow real estate. At this time, the introduction of real estate tax just made up for the reduction in land sales revenue. Although the property tax in is not as satisfying as selling land, it has a long-term, stable and large base, and the income it brings to local governments should not be underestimated.
Take the United States as an example. Real estate tax has developed into the main tax and the most important source of income for local governments below the state. Since 2002, the proportion of real estate tax in the United States in local governments has increased by about 70%-75%, excluding transfer payment income, accounting for 50%.
However, our land belongs to the country, and the property tax should probably not be as exaggerated as the United States...
Real estate tax is introduced, is the property market going to collapse?
What is the impact of the housing market depends on the collection standards. is currently payable at around 1% of the market valuation every year, which is acceptable.
However, if the tax rate circulated online reaches 3% or more, it is equivalent to the house being lost after more than 30 years of tax payment. . Those who own the fourth house pay tax at a rate of 5%. In just 20 years, the house will be equivalent to being confiscated by the state... In this way, the real estate market will definitely collapse, and Uncle Fang has to go begging for food.
Our country's real estate cannot collapse. If it really doesn't work, the country can forcibly freeze the real estate market. Of course, it is not realistic to have a high tax rate at the beginning, so it is expected that real estate tax should be in a position that everyone can accept.
Therefore, in the end, most property taxes will pass on the cost of taxes to renters through the increase in rent.
So this magical scene will occur in the future. Six people who buy houses with wallets are working hard to pay the mortgage, and those who cannot afford the houses are working hard to pay the rent. The RMB exchange rate depreciation and the financial stimulus will be high. everyone is tightening their belts to live.
House prices have not fallen, and those with houses but no houses have lost all their money. So who will benefit in the end?
(Source: Ye Tan Finance Text/Zhao Shiyi)
