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On October 8, Crimea Bridge was bombed, attracting global attention.
explosion killed 3 people, collapsed on one side of the highway bridge, and a raging fire was ignited on the railway bridge.
After the Crimea Bridge was bombed, Ukrainian media immediately claimed that it was done by Ukrainian national security department. And Ukrainian government personnel said this is "just the beginning."
Because the explosion occurred on the second day of Putin's birthday, it was interpreted by some people as a birthday gift for Putin.
The Ukrainian government also specially issued commemorative stamps.
A series of slutty operations in Ukraine completely angered Putin.
htmlOn the 410th, the Russian army launched multiple rounds of long-range precision missile attacks on Ukrainian command, communications and energy facilities, and dozens of people have been killed or injured.
The Crimea Bridge was bombed, causing huge ripples in the relatively calm battlefield of Russia and Ukraine. How do you view this event
? What impact will it have on the current battlefield and international political landscape? What warnings are there for China?
The bombing of the Crimea Bridge was obviously a landmark event in the Russian-Ukrainian war.
This is another attack on civilian facilities after the bombing of the Nord Stream pipeline not long ago.
Putin angrily called it a "terrorist attack". Is it really a terrorist attack?
is completely targeted at civilians or civilian facilities, and it is a terrorist attack. However, the attackers are not yet clear yet, and the two sides are in a state of war. The bridge is obviously not just used for civilian purposes. In fact, the purpose of building a bridge is to support Crimea militarily. Therefore, blasting the bridge is not a traditional terrorist attack, and it can only be regarded as state terrorism.
In fact, the cruiser Moscow was sunk, the Crimea Saki Airport was bombed, and the Moscow car bomb attack on Dujinna, these are all like Brother Qiang's " Zelensky and his "guerrilla warfare" can save Ukraine? 》 said that it is part of Ukraine's launch of guerrilla war against Russia.
The strength of the Ukrainian army and the Russian army was too different, and it was difficult to shake the Russian army on the front battlefield, the Ukrainian army had to adopt this non-battlefield method of surprise, attacking them unprepared, and unable to get on the surface, and carried out assassination, destruction, and attacks on the occupiers. exchanges time for space , and consumes and drags down the Russian army step by step.
marks a major turning point in the battlefield combat mode between Russia and Ukraine.
Since the Russian army entered Ukraine, the Russian army has always been relatively restrained and left room for attack on Ukraine's civilian targets in accordance with the principle of fighting officials rather than the people, winning the hearts of the people, and demonstrating justice.
After Putin was angry this time, the Russian military used his sights to let go, firing hundreds of long-range precision-guided bombs a day, and the targets of the attack have undergone major changes.
In addition to attacking military and political targets such as the Presidential Office, the military, and the National Security Bureau, it also attacked key transfer centers for Western military aid such as Kiev and Dnipro Railway Station, and large machinery manufacturing plants that may be converted into military use in the military, as well as civil infrastructure such as Kiev and Lviv Thermal Power Station. This indiscriminate attack of
shows that the Russian-Ukrainian war has completely shifted from "civil struggle" to "armed struggle". In the future, civilian targets will become the target of attacks on both sides more and more frequently, and the war will be more cruel and bottomless. Even Zelensky may become the target of "beheading" attack.
If the Russian army has the strength to continue to maintain this strike model similar to the scale of the US Gulf War, I believe that in the near future, Ukraine's military and civil infrastructure will be completely damaged and its war potential will be greatly reduced.
But it is highly likely that it is impossible. The reason is very simple and it is too expensive.
War is about making money.The Russian caliber cruise missile is about 6.5 million US dollars per, the Iskander tactical missile is about 2 million US dollars per, and the cheapest dot tactical missile costs $300,000 US dollars.
X series air-based cruise missiles are more complex in technology, and are definitely more expensive than the caliber missile . It is close to the cost of "Dagger" hypersonic missiles, at least about $10 million.
In contrast, in addition to the additional aid of Ukraine of 13.5 billion US dollars, Biden signed a Ukraine Lease Act of 40 billion US dollars, which means that the scale of the war will soon expand.
If Ukraine can hold on with the help of Western military, and Russia makes constant mistakes, is weak in the future, and cannot support it, and cannot get China's support, it is not impossible for Russia to use the tactical nuclear weapon .
Don’t forget Putin really said: Without Russia, what’s the use of this world?
No matter what, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will permanently change the international geopolitical pattern.
Since the crown of the Principality of Moscow, Ivan IV was crowned the Tsar in 1547, the Russian country has been expanding outward for centuries. This is the Chinese people know the most.
Even in the Soviet Union, after World War II , it seized part of the territory of the defeated country Germany, forcibly changing the boundary form of Poland and other countries.
Putin, who has always idolized Peter the Great and Katerina , may not have planned to incorporate the four eastern Ukraine into Russia at the beginning of the launch of a special military operation, but became bolder after annexing Crimea. In February this year, it was also announced that it would officially recognize Donetsk and Luhansk from Ukraine as the "independent republic."
After expecting that NATO will not send troops to interfere in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, he recently directly supported the referendum of the four eastern Ukrainian states to join the Russian Federation, and promised to protect the nuclear weapons.
At this point, Ukraine's destination as a abandoned child in NATO has begun to appear, and it will eventually be unable to escape the fate of being dismembered. The four places in eastern Ukraine may never be able to recover. The best outcome may exist as a strategic buffer zone under the product of Russian and NATO appeasement.
Ukraine, which accepts tens of billions of military aid from the West, will have to negotiate peace with Russia after it consumes its net money, suffers heavy casualties, and the country is broken into ruins.
European powers with energy shortage will become a positive force in making peace with Russia at that time.
Without nuclear conflict, this may be the best end of the Russian-Ukrainian war.
After this fight , Russia, which was politically contained, economically hunted, and national strength was exhausted, may only be strategic nuclear weapons to support it. Although it can obtain verbal security guarantees from the West, its possible role in the international community will be greatly reduced and its status will be much worse than before.
After taming Russia, the United States and the West are likely to free up their hands to create new crises in the Taiwan Strait, and China may face unprecedented pressure by then.
Instead of waiting for it to change, it is better to get up and do it.
