According to TrendForce, the DRAM market demand growth in 2023 was only 8.3%, which is the first time in history that is below 10% , far lower than the supply position growth of about 14.1%. It is expected that the DRAM market in at least 2023 will still be quite severe under the oversupply situation, and prices may continue to decline. In terms of NAND Flash, it is still in an oversupply state, but the product is more price-elastic than DRAM. Although it is expected that the price will fall in the first half of next year, the average price will be expected to stimulate the growth of stand-alone capacity of the enterprise SSD market after many consecutive quarters. is expected to grow by 28.9%, while the supply grows by about 32.1%.
From the perspective of various applications, high inflation continues to impact consumer market demand, so prioritizing inventory correction is the brand’s primary goal. Especially in the past two years, facing the problem of material shortage of upstream parts caused by the epidemic, the brand overorders and slow channel sales have made the inventory of laptops slow to sell, causing the demand for laptops to further weaken in 2023. In terms of PC DRAM, the proportion of DDR4 and LPDDR4X in PC applications will further decrease, and LPDDR5 and DDR5 will continue to penetrate. However, because the price of DDR5 is still high, it will limit the growth of PC stand-alone capacity. is estimated to increase the annual capacity of PC DRAM stand-alone capacity by about 7% in 2023. If the original DDR5 factory lowers its price and turns positive next year, it may drive the capacity to rise to 9%, depending on whether the premium space of DDR5 compared to DDR4 can be effectively converged. In terms of
PC client SSD, the estimated average capacity of has only slightly increased by 11%, the lowest in the past three years. The main reason is that the epidemic in the past two years has greatly increased the shipment of laptops, and it has also driven the SSD loading rate. The average capacity has been tight in the supply of SSD main control ICs in the past and has actively promoted the growth of average capacity. However, the cost of laptops in the past has been increasing due to the increase in the price of parts in the past two years, which has led to a relatively conservative SSD capacity demand bits in 2023.
Since server shipment is estimated to have shown high growth in the past few years, the subsequent growth momentum will slow down when the calculation foundation is already high. In terms of Sever DRAM, due to the fifth generation of memory specifications, the new Sapphire Rapids and Genoa have increased the cost of the whole machine, and the average server capacity is beginning to face restrictions. It is not the past that the capacity of a single module is simply upgraded. The considerations on the demand side will focus more on hardware costs and the practice of ESG strategy. estimates that server DRAM will be limited in 2023 in terms of average capacity improvement, with an annual increase of about 7% . In terms of
Enterprise SSD, in order to meet HPC and big data computing needs, the new Sapphire Rapids and Genoa platforms have begun to upgrade to support PCIe 5.0 transmission; in order to achieve the transmission performance of PCIe 5.0, the SSD capacity must also be upgraded simultaneously. This trend will help the average capacity growth of enterprise SSD next year. In addition, as the overall oversupply pattern of NAND Flash continues to the first half of next year, the reduction in NAND Flash price will increase the shipment ratio of products above 4TB. is estimated to have an annual growth rate of enterprise SSD in 2023 to be 26% .
is hit by high inflation, and the world is generally not optimistic about the consumer market. Based on the demand for cyclical replacement and new demand in emerging regions, smartphone production will still rise slightly. In terms of Mobile DRAM, the Android camp currently has sufficient capacity to meet daily operating systems. Therefore, without the trend of innovative applications, based on the consideration of the cost of the whole machine and the low proportion of high-end sales, the brand's willingness to increase capacity has also slowed down. As for the iOS camp, due to its high operating system optimization, it reduces its capacity demand for Mobile DRAM. TrendForce TrendForce estimates that the single-machine capacity of mobile DRAM will only increase by 5% per year in 2023.
Smartphone NAND Flash part, as the penetration rate of 5G smartphones gradually expands, and in order to meet the high-pixel shooting needs, the application surface needs to configure a larger storage capacity, which brings basic momentum to increase the capacity of single-player NAND Flash for smartphones.At the same time, the iPhone product portfolio is still moving towards higher capacity across the board; Android high-end models have also followed up with 512GB as standard, and the storage space of mid- and low-end models has increased with the continuous upgrade of hardware specifications, so there is still room for growth in the overall average capacity. is estimated to maintain an annual growth in the capacity of NAND Flash stand-alone smartphones in 2023, which is slightly lower than in 2022, but is still at a high level.
