Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on October 13 showed that the U.S. CPI in September increased by 8.2% year-on-year, slightly higher than market expectations, with the previous value of 8.3%. The core CPI in the United States also exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, the largest increase since August 1982, with the previous value of 6.3%.
Hu Jie, professor at Shanghai Jiaotong University Shanghai Senior Finance School, told The Paper that the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in September fell slightly compared with August, roughly the same as market expectations.
After the release of US CPI data in September, interest rate futures data show that the current market expects that the probability of FOMC raising interest rates by 75 basis points in November is close to 100%.
"The trend of CPI returning to its ideal target of 2-3% is still there, but the speed is not satisfactory. At the same time, there is no need for a major adjustment in the subsequent rate hike, because the effect of each rate hike has a time lag of 1-2 quarters to CPI, so we need to continue to observe." Hu Jie said.
Hu Jie said that after the FOMC meeting in September, the pace of interest rate hikes in the next five is expected to be: 50-75, 25-50, 25, 25, 25 basis points; the specific amplitude depends on the monthly inflation data. Given that September data showed that CPI fell slowly, Hu Jie believes that the forecast for the FOMC meeting rate hike in November is: a 70% chance of raising interest rates 75 basis points, while a 30% chance of raising interest rates 50 basis points.
data shows that the housing, food and medical price index continues to rise, which is the biggest contribution to the US CPI in September, and is also hedged by the gasoline price index, which fell 4.9%. The food price index continued to rise, up 0.8% month-on-month in September and the household food index rose 0.7%. The energy index fell 2.1% month-on-month, with the gasoline index falling, but the gas and electricity index rising.
, looking at energy prices on a month-on-month basis, the energy index fell 2.1% month-on-month basis in September, while the decline in August was 5%. The gasoline index fell 4.9% in September after a 10.6% month-on-month decline in August. However, the gas index rose 2.9% month-on-month, up 3.5% in August. The electricity index rose by 0.4% month-on-month in September.
year-on-year, the overall energy price index in September rose 19.8% year-on-year, lower than the 23.8% increase in August. Among them, the gasoline index rose 18.2% year-on-year, and the fuel index rose 58.1% year-on-year. The power index rose 15.5% year-on-year, and the natural gas index rose 33.1% year-on-year.
In terms of food prices, the food price index in September rose 0.8% month-on-month, the same as in August. Among them, the household food price index rose by 0.7% month-on-month, accompanied by the month-on-month increase of all six major grocery food sub-indexes. Year-on-year, the food price index rose 11.2% year-on-year. Among them, the household food index rose by 13%, and the food price index outside the household rose by 8.5%.
specifically looks at the core CPI. In September, the core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 0.6% month-on-month, and the increase remained the same in August. The housing index continued to rise, up 0.7% month-on-month in September, with the increase being the same; the rental index rose 0.8% month-on-month, and the owners' equivalent rental (OER) index rose 0.8% month-on-month, the largest monthly increase since June 1990.
