Let’s first review this year’s CPI and rate hikes of :
US CPI and rate hikes this year:
January: CPI 7.5%, rate hikes No
2: CPI 7.9%, rate hikes No
3: CPI 8.5%, rate hikes 25bp
4: CPI 8.3%, rate hikes No
5: CPI 8.6%, rate hikes 50bpp
6: CPI 9.1%, rate hikes 75bpppml3
7: CPI 8.3%, rate hikes No
5: CPI 8.6%, rate hikes 50bpp
6: CPI 9.1%, rate hikes 75bpp
7: CPI 8.5%, rate hike 75bp
8 months: CPI 8.3%, rate hike No
9 months: CPI? , Preliminary interest rate hike 75bp
In fact, the US CPI has been rising since last year, but under the self-hypnosis of the Federal Reserve's "temporary theory of inflation" last year, it finally developed to an uncontrollable level!
is a bit less gossiping. From the CPI data from January to 8 this year, we can see that the CPI growth rate in June was at its peak in 8 months, which is inseparable from the surge in crude oil price after the conflict between Russia and Ukraine (at that time, the price of Brent oil was more than US$110 per barrel in March to May). After June, the price of crude oil gradually fell, and the US CPI gradually fell, but the slowdown was far less than the slowdown of crude oil prices, indicating that the root of inflation is still in the over-issued US dollar! It is not that bulk futures commodities trigger U.S. inflation, but that pushes up U.S. inflation!
If the CPI growth rate tonight is lower than August, will it turn the strong US dollar?
is probably only a beautiful wish for most people!
It is not suitable to describe the United States as being terminally ill, but it is very suitable to seek medical treatment if you are urgently ill!
The cause of the United States is that the US dollar is over-issued, and it chooses to raise interest rates to make the US dollar more valuable! How to make the US dollar more valuable?
As long as it is better than non-US currencies!
destroys all non-US currencies. The US dollar is healthy. Non-US currencies must be unhealthy and become sick, and they must be more serious than the US dollar!
hikes interest rates are a good way to increase the currency value, but it is hit by the domestic economy and is slow to take effect. It is different for the United States to provoke a conflict between Russia and Ukraine with its military strength. Europe encounters an energy crisis, a refugee crisis, and a manufacturing crisis. It has pushed the world's second settlement currency with a currency value higher than the US dollar to below parity. euro zone rich people are taking risks to buy US dollars and even higher the US dollar's currency value!
The same treatment is also given by economic semi-colonial Japan and neighboring South Korea, which fell in the currency value under the pressure of the US dollar!
The only difficult thing to deal with is the flower grower, which is a major foreign exchange power reserved for the US dollar. It is a big US dollar reserve. The US dollar battle is both defeated. And more importantly, the flower grower earns a fast remittance and returns blood, and the politics is stable. In addition, the United States also urgently needs flower growers’ goods to reduce inflation!
, but the rmb currency value only reached 7.2 when the dollar index hit a new high of 114 in recent years, and returned to the low of the previous two years! Obviously half the result with twice the effort!
and euro , yen and pound have all set record depreciation records!
After the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 basis points in November, the nominal interest rate of will reach 4% to 4.25%, which will also cause great harm to the domestic economy of the United States! Especially in the technology industry! A large number of layoffs due to the increase in financing costs!
There is also the US real estate interest rate reached more than 6% due to interest rates. I admire the Federal Reserve's courage to pierce the bubble!
But don’t forget that the United States is also the world’s number one energy exporter, with high energy prices and also an anchoring effect on the stability of the dollar’s currency. Therefore, hikes interest rates are a very contradictory thing for the United States!
So, no matter what the results of the CPI were announced this time, the Fed will choose the most suitable solution!
and pierce the bubble of other countries and make other countries worse than the US dollar is a must-have option!
Euro, Japanese yen, Korean won and British pound will all be sacrifices for this US dollar tide, and rmb will be the decisive battle! Determine the intensity of this US dollar harvest!
Therefore, it is undoubtedly a dream to long for this strong dollar turn!
