Ukraine won great victories from Khlsong's counterattack in August and Kharkiv's counterattack in September. In the direction of Kharkov, the Ukrainian army broke through the two defense lines of the Russian army and recovered important strongholds such as Baraklia, Ijum, Kupiansk, Volchansk, and Kolliman . The Russian army retreated to the third line of defense, which is the defense line composed of Swatovo and Kremenaya, which is considered to be a stable position.
Whether you can defend it in the future still needs to be observed. Although the counterattack in the direction of Khlsong was first launched, it was in a stalemate stage until October 3, when Ukraine concentrated its forces to launch an clamp-shaped offensive in the north of Khlsong , breaking through the Russian defense line and forcing the Russian army to retreat sharply. The Ukrainian army pushed the front line forward 30 kilometers in one attack, and then continued to move forward. The Russian army retreated to the second line of defense, and is currently in a stalemate.
Ukraine's attack momentum has almost been consumed. If nothing unexpected happens, there will be a stalemate in the future. Of course, Russian Yue Feistrekov warned on the self-media that Ukraine may cause trouble in Zaboroge in the next step, which is not good news for the current panic Russian army.
This wave of defeat of the Russian army was quite ugly, especially at the critical moment when the four states voted to Russia. Zelensky gave Putin a loud slap in the face. So there was a lot of ridicule of Russia on the Internet. This was nothing, if you beat it badly, you would have to be ridiculed. But these ridicule also contains many arguments that the Ukrainian army is invincible, and Russia is about to collapse. The Russian army is a public enemy of mankind, which means to bewitch people's hearts. Friends who are familiar with me know that when the war between Russia and Ukraine first started, I once said that few people who support Ukraine in China really care about the life and death of the Ukrainians . The reason why so many people waved flags and shouted for Ukraine was just to prove the invincibility of the West through Ukraine's victory, and then argue that the Chinese must obey the West. So, for the current situation, we must understand what the problem with the Russian army is? Is there still a possibility of turning the tables?
Now many people point out that Ukraine has the intelligence support of NATO , the Russian army has nowhere to hide in every move, Himas rocket launcher is invincible, and can destroy Russia with one arrow. Starlink satellites have made Ukrainian military communications unimpeded, and Russia is still using walkie-talkies made in Shenzhen, etc. However, NATO's intelligence and starlink were not just given to Ukraine. Why were they still beaten by the Russian army in the past few months and retreated? The Himas rocket launcher caused great trouble to the Russian army, but can only have a dozen rocket launchers have a fundamental impact on the battle situation? Therefore, these NATO halos added to Ukraine have indeed enhanced Ukraine's combat effectiveness, but it is obviously not enough to play a decisive role.
Excluding these halos, the fundamental reason for the current passive situation of the Russian army is to find it from the armies of both sides themselves. With August as the watershed, what is the biggest change between the two sides before and after? I think there are only people. The Ukrainian regular army was organized by the Nazis before the war, with a total of 300,000 people. After multiple rounds of mobilization, the total force was close to 1 million. During this period, the number of casualties was about 300,000, so the current total number of Ukrainian troops is about 700,000. Excluding logistics and National Guard , the front-line combat force is more than 400,000. In Russia, only contract soldiers can go abroad to fight, plus Luton militia, Wagner, Chechen internet celebrity soldiers, a total of about 200,000 people were fighting in Ukraine.
However, according to the operating mechanism of the contract soldier, he has to return to China for a resumption every six months. Therefore, after the Battle of Lisichangsk at the end of July, many Russian troops returned to China, and there are many videos on Russian social media to testify about this. It is estimated that there are only 50,000 Russian troops continuing to fight in Ukraine, plus the Luton militia, Wagner and Chechen soldiers, a total of 100,000. Among them, most of the troops must be divided into divisions to guard various strongholds, with very few mobile forces.Therefore, after August, before the arrival of new Russian troops, a military vacuum was formed. Ukraine happened to complete the training of mobilizing troops at this time, and the comparison of troops suddenly came to four to one or even five to one. As a result, there was a wonder that the Ukrainian army could concentrate superior forces to form a breakthrough, while the Russian army could only retreat all the way.
Since the crux of the current situation has been clearly analyzed, we can make a prediction for the future battle situation. In the Khlsong area, there are still 25,000 regular Russian troops here. Although the Russian army has been fighting hard for more than half a year, they can get the support of artillery and the aerospace army, and their combat effectiveness is still guaranteed. Now, after shrinking, their defense width has been greatly reduced and the defensive pressure has been reduced accordingly. Therefore, it is unlikely that the Ukrainian army will form a rapid advance in the Kharkiv region. It is probably going to be a stalemate here again.
Near Kharkov, the Kremenaia defense line is the key, but there are few regular Russian troops here, most of which are Luton militias. It is difficult to maintain it. The worst situation is that it all shrinks to Lisichangsk. By November, the Russian army's mobilization forces began to come on the field, and the soldiers returning to China would also come back. By then, the Russian army will have more than 300,000 troops, and some lost land will be recovered. Whether it can return to Ijium is still unknown, and the war may continue for a long time. However, Ukraine's current mobilization ability has reached its limit. The scope of the sixth round of mobilization has already included middle school students. If this continues, Ukraine will not be able to consume Russia. Therefore, I still believe that the final victory belongs to Russia.
