[Text/Observer Network Columnist Wang Wen]
When it comes to May 9, everyone will think of Russia's Victory Day in the Second World War. But everyone has forgotten that this date is another great historical battle, "The Battle of Megido", and the victory day of .
The Battle of Megido is the first battle with a definite written record in human history. On May 9, 1457 BC, the ancient Egyptian Kingdom under the leadership of Toutmos III defeated the anti-Egyptian "Canaan Alliance" composed of more than 330 city-states. Since then, it has won many battles and finally created the first intercontinental empire in world history, Egyptian Empire .
At present, Western public opinion is full of various speculations and comments about the escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the counterattack of Ukraine, as well as the momentum of Western politicians flying to Kiev and to support Ukraine. They even held a meeting of 40 defense ministers hosted by the United States to show that Russia is oppressed by a single country in the United States against the "40-Nation Alliance". In addition, many Chinese netizens' high expectations for the Russian military's military strength to "resolve the battle in a few days" have failed, and their concerns about Russia's national destiny have increased. Some researchers have also written articles to suggest that China publicly support Russia.
In fact, the situation is far from the point where the Russian army was defeated. To list the coincidence of the Victory Day of the Battle of Megido, it is to reiterate the battle 3477 years ago, Egypt can win at 1:330; this seemingly 1:40 war may not necessarily lose.
The current conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the public opinion war launched by the United States and NATO is coming in full force, and it is like trying to kill Russia. However, the war is not based on the formation or momentum, nor is it the side with the most involved actors that will definitely win. To predict the success or failure of a war, we cannot rely solely on public opinion. There are at least four conclusive evidence to support the overall judgment that "Russia's situation is acceptable":
First, the actual materials and funds that the West supports Ukraine support are far from enough to support Ukraine's counterattack and final victory. 5 In his speech on May 6, the US Secretary of State admitted that the total amount of US security assistance to Ukraine has reached US$3.8 billion since February 24. President Biden also confessed on the same day that day that "the funds that the US government can use to provide security assistance to Ukraine have been almost exhausted." Biden had wanted to apply for US$33 billion in aid to Congress for Ukraine but failed, so he called on "international partners to continue to show unity and determination to provide Ukraine with a steady stream of weapons and ammunition." The United States has no money on its own, so it allows its allies to make more money.
So how much did the other "partners" give to Ukraine? I roughly calculated that the actual amount should not exceed $5 billion. You should know that Zelensky publicly shouted that Ukraine's monthly expenses for civil servants and maintaining the basic operations of the wartime government would cost 7 billion US dollars.
From this point of view, whether it is the previous British Prime Minister Johnson, or the recent visits to the House of Representatives Speaker Pelosi , Mrs. Biden, Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau , mostly regard Ukraine as its own political show and diplomatic activities that are not worthy of justice. No wonder Zelensky repeatedly called on Western politicians, "Don't come empty-handed if you want to come!" It is conceivable that unless the United States and the West increase aid 10- or 20-fold, it will not be able to support Zelensky's declared plan to "counterattack Russia in July."
Ukrainian President Zelensky met with Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau. Image source: Visual China
Second, the US and the West have little impact on Russia, and it may also make Russia a profit. Russia's nearly one trillion overseas assets have been frozen, and economic growth will definitely be impacted. But the Economist magazine published an article in early May saying that the sanctions only caused Russia to "skin trauma". Since the conflict, energy and food prices have soared by more than 20%.
The hoarding behavior caused by international traders out of panic mentality has increased their energy and grain imports to Russia. It was revealed at the end of March that even the United States' crude oil imports to Russia soared by 43% within a week. The price and volume both increased, and Russian traders actually made a lot of money. The Russian Ministry of Finance revealed that it will receive an additional 414 billion rubles of in May.
html The "Ruble Settlement Order" implemented in early April is even more adept.The United States and the West have introduced more than 8,000 sanctions against Russia within two months (about three times the total sanctions against Iran in more than 40 years), which once caused the ruble to collapse from 79:1 to 154:1 US dollars. The "Rubber Settlement Order" turned the tide of the ruble, and even rose back to 66:1 US dollars ( exchange rate on May 8), hitting a three-year high.The international currency market has begun to "seek rubles and remove the US dollar". The United States has "weaponized currency", and the governors of more than 180 central banks must be thinking the same thing: if you attack Russia with the US dollar today, you may hit me tomorrow. The natural consequence is that the proportion of the United States as an international reserve currency has dropped to a historical low of around 58%, and "de-dollarization" is accelerating.
Third, internal cracks in the United States and Europe have already arisen, and sanctions and strategic suppression on Russia will not last long. Hungary has repeatedly reiterated its opposition and will reject energy sanctions on Russia. At present, more than 10 countries have accepted the "Ruble Settlement Order" and secretly chose to compromise with Russia.
reality is stronger than humans. EU has a dependence on Russia's energy of more than 40%. Some countries (such as Slovakia , Austria , etc.) have a dependence on Russia even exceeding 80%. Without Russia, their daily lives have really been hit hard.
4 In April, the inflation rate of euro zone was 7.5%, setting a record high. Many euro zone countries' living-related expenditures (electricity bills, food prices) have increased by more than 15%. The anti-war voices are rising, and the populism waves are one after another. EU politicians have been renewed. After Merkel retired, Macron became the "oldest" character.
html Macron, who "nearly won" in the French general election at the end of April, recently took the initiative to call Putin and for 2 hours, but Russia's retaliation: NATO must stop providing force support to Ukraine. German Chancellor Schultz's life is getting harder and harder. In May, he expressed his continuous hope that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict will end soon.The EU wants to find energy replacement, but it is generally estimated that even if Europe is determined to "de-Russiaize" energy and transfer it to Africa, Middle East , and US energy, it will be until 2027. Russia is close to Europe, with low transportation costs and cheaper energy prices. Europe is hard to give up. It can be expected that as the conflict continues to tug-of-war, the EU will feel more and more uncomfortable, especially in the autumn and turn colder in three or four months, and the demand for natural gas heating will increase, and the EU will surrender even more. From this perspective, the time when Europe will choose to compromise with Russia will not exceed the autumn of 2022, which should be a high probability event.
Fourth, Russia's military presence in the Donbass region has not been trapped in a "people's war". On the contrary, it is likely that it will gain a lot of practical benefits from actual control of Donbass. Donbas area is about 60,000 square kilometers, with a population of about 3 million, accounting for only about 1/10 of Ukraine's territory and population. However, Donbas is a major economic, industrial and energy center in Ukraine, with a total economic output of 1/3, and the total amount of GDP is about 50 billion US dollars. At present, Russia's actual control area in Donbass has the majority of Russians who originally spoke Russian. It has been suppressed by the Kiev regime for a long time and has long been in a sense of separation.
The "Donetsk People's Republic" and "Luhansk People's Republic" in the Donbas region are even more famous industrial centers of steel and machinery. After the announcement of independence, it has been recognized by Russia. If Crimea was incorporated into Russia after its independence in 2014, it would increase Russia's total economic output by an additional 1-2%.
According to statistics, the Snake Island in the south of Odessa acquired by Russia in the early stages of the conflict is rich in oil and gas resources (about 12 million tons of oil and 70 billion cubic meters of natural gas reserves), and the proven reserves of are worth about 1 trillion US dollars.
The Russian army is currently advancing slowly and pays great attention to local humanitarian considerations. I think it is most likely to be a strategy of "fighting for war" and implementing a strategy of long-term possession and final territorial incorporation. From this perspective, Russia launched this military operation from an economic perspective is not a loss.
Some Chinese people’s concerns about Russia’s future are, on the one hand, out of a normal psychological reaction to the failure of Russia’s high military strength, and on the other hand, out of the cold feeling of “if Russia is defeated, the next West will deal with China”. But adjusting psychological expectations to the point of view of Russia not wanting to annex Ukraine from the beginning and not wanting to "win quickly" from the beginning, then there is reason to believe that the situation facing Russia and Ukraine has not been bad in the end until now.
The trust and support rate of Russian people for Putin has ranged from 65% before the conflict to 81% in early May, which fully proves the actual situation in Russia. Many Russian friends privately stated that although some online affairs such as Apple phones have been affected, their daily life is still stable overall and they support Putin's military operation in their hearts, which also confirms the above inference.
Of course, this does not mean that the US strategy against Russia is facing failure. In fact, for more than two months, it makes sense for the Chinese to tell the story of the United States' strategy of "using Ukraine to defeat Russia" and "using Russia to suppress Europe". From the perspective of energy, military industry returns and consolidation of the Atlantic Alliance, the United States will definitely be the biggest winner of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in the short term. But in the long run, the United States may not win.
British Prime Minister Johnson spoke with Ukrainian President Zelensky on the phone to discuss providing long-range weapons. Image source: Visual China
People all over the world see it. The United States and NATO are fighting a proxy war, consuming the lives of Ukrainians. They want to weaken Russia, but they defend the hegemony between the United States and NATO.
Although on the surface, Western media continue to raise and shape the just image of the United States and NATO, the world is not a fool. The cunning and hypocrisy shown by the United States have completely collapsed the so-called moral highland of the West. From Afghanistan , Iraq , Syria , Libya , and then to Ukraine, how many blood and disasters are caused in the name of so-called justice in the West.
The real pitiful thing is Ukraine. Ukraine is definitely the biggest loser, and Ukrainians are definitely the hardest. This time, Polish jumped very high, coveting many states that were originally Polish territory in the Ushi region, and even dreaming of establishing the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. I don’t know what kind of abacus other countries are doing!
has a bigger brain, maybe in the end, Russia and NATO and the EU finally compromised, sacrificed and divided Ukraine, which is also a possibility. As the saying goes, "Two elephants fight, the grassland is the worst." Zelensky, a political amateur who was born in an actor, seems to be insufficient in strategic capabilities.
At the end of this article, I would like to recommend Rui Dalio's new book "Principle: Responding to the Changeful World Order". After nearly half a century of continuous profits, the boss of the world's largest private equity fund, , wants to know the most is not the essence of wealth, but wants to truly explore the cycle of the rise and fall of the world empire and the deep reasons behind the outcome of the war.
Dalio uses multiple beautiful and almost parallel curves in the book to tell the regular rise and fall cycles of multiple empires in history. In the rising stage, the empire will have multiple war victories as ladders; in the falling stage, failure of war becomes inevitable. The "Dalio curve" can explain the imperial war in history, and also explain why , the American Empire , which has been on a downward curve since 2000, finally brought tragedy in every war.
From this perspective, whether it is Thutmos III's continuous victory in the rising cycle of ancient Egypt , or the United States wants to use the Ukrainian War to protect hegemony again from Iraq War , Afghan War , Syrian War , but in the end it is all contrary to expectations. The reason can be imagined.
Of course, as a Chinese scholar, I have no intention of defending Russia. I just don't like the seemingly righteous moral hypocrisy towards Russia in Western politicians. The Chinese do not like war. More than two thousand years ago, there was a " Mohist " among the hundreds of schools of thought that "either love" and "non-attack" philosophy. Sun Tzu also taught the teachings of defeating others without fighting. Although there have been many peasant uprisings in Chinese history, China is indeed the largest country in world history that has launched the least military action against neighboring countries.
In foreign conflicts, the first thing the Chinese people emphasize is "time". The time is not right, and no matter how strong the military force is, it will inevitably fail in the war. Judging from this logic, there is no winner in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Although the United States has taken advantage of it in the short term, in the long term, the United States may also be the loser.
However, in the eyes of Western politicians, war can make money, so why bother with the cruelty of war? More than 14,600 wars have occurred in the history of civilization over 5,000 years, and a total of 36.4 billion people died due to war. If the wealth lost in the war is equivalent to gold, it can lay a large gold belt that circles the earth 75 kilometers wide and 10 meters thick. Just imagine, without war, how prosperous will mankind have?
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