Ukraine's "massive" counterattack has been "not much movement" since September 13. The Russian Ministry of Defense issued a statement on the 13th, saying that the Russian army is reorganizing its troops in order to launch a strike on the front line.
In other words, Ukraine's first wave of offensive is coming to an end , and Russia and Ukraine will return to a stalemate. But this stalemate should not last as long as summer , after all, "winter is coming."
First of all, let’s review this wave of offensives.
At the end of August and early September, from the counterattack of the Ukrainian army, we can find that The "main role" of the United States is becoming more and more obvious, which is also the focus of Russia's attention.
The United States has always been the main supporter of Ukrainian operations. According to U.S. intelligence officials, the United States usually knows Russia's military plans better than Ukraine.
This counterattack on the United States and Britain together provide Ukraine with valuable tactical guidance and intelligence information. so-called tactical guidance is to train Ukraine to "report the east and attack the west", and to launch a counterattack in the direction of Kharkov while Russia is shifting its energy to Ukraine.
The so-called intelligence support uses advanced reconnaissance and science and technology to provide Ukraine with key information such as Russian command posts, ammunition depots, , and marching routes, making Ukraine's strike more accurate and effective.
Russia even said bluntly that whether the negotiation is made depends on whether the "boss" behind Kiev is willing. The strong support of the United States is a dilemma that Russia has to face, and it can be regarded as Russia's "winter".
Next, let’s talk about the “next wave of offensives”.
As mentioned above, the current stalemate in the front line will not last long, because Europe and the United States hope that Ukraine can achieve a beautiful result before winter comes.
Therefore, the next wave of counterattack and turning point will occur around the end of September and early October. Of course, this was speculated when Russia did not "shoulder the ultimate move" and counterattacked the Ukrainian army in advance.
In addition to time, we also need to pay attention to the strength of the next wave of counterattack.
From the Ukrainian counterattack in late August and early September, it can be found that Ukrainian military counterattack and Western camp sanctions are carried out at the same time, so the next wave of counterattack will be like this.
First, military efforts are strengthened. According to the Russian Satellite News Agency, The United States plans to "equip Ukraine with "army tactical missile system" with a range of 300 kilometers, and Russia is very dissatisfied with this.
The Russian ambassador to the United States pointed out that if Kiev obtains such a weapon, Russian cities, industrial areas, transportation hubs and other places will be exposed to the attack range.
He warned, "This situation only means that the United States will be directly involved in the military confrontation with Russia."
In other words, Russia must not only adjust its operations in a short period of time to deal with the battles in Ukraine, but also beware of Russian attacks and be wary of direct confrontation between Russia and the United States.
If Russia and the United States directly engage in military confrontation, it will be no less than the "World War III" . No country that desires peace will want to see it!
Second, Central Asia has become another focus of the "competition" between Russia and the United States.
According to Deputy Assistant Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development, What the United States is doing is to "try to help Central Asia strengthen its democratic system, promote economic growth, and ultimately decouple it from the Russian economy."
can be said to be, directly putting the target on understanding. What is the Central Asia region? Central Asia is home to Russia's "old friends", such as Kazakhstan , Kyrgyzstan , Turkmenistan and other countries, which are of great significance to Russia.
The reason why the United States dares to do it openly is because Russia's attraction to Central Asia, especially its economic attraction, has declined sharply. This can be seen from the "indifference" of Central Asian countries towards Russia after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
The United States directly extended his hand to Russia's old friends, and the "humiliation" of Russia was also direct enough. And from the current perspective, not many of Putin can recover Central Asian allies from the economic perspective, after all, the economic recession is a fact.
Therefore, the next wave of offensive may have greater military strength, and the economic sanctions of in Europe and the United States will be more severe. Russia must gain military advantages or maintain a stalemate and rely on energy and finance to "sustain" economically in order to temporarily escape danger.
As for the specific situation, let’s wait and see!
