Recently, many friends have been attracted by the Vietnamese stock market. Some fund companies just happened to launch another fund that can be used to invest in the Vietnamese stock market, so everyone flocked to it.
Indeed, the Vietnamese stock market has led the world's growth in the past year, and anyone who sees it will be moved. It started to rebound after the epidemic last year to the end of August this year, nearly doubling. In contrast, our Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 only rose by just 40%!
Netizens have started to criticize our A shares again.
However, there is no need to be such an extreme. Vietnamese retail investors are learning the fourth investment class. It will be a matter of time before Vietnamese stock investors cry and howl! Why do you say that? Let’s analyze it carefully!
Economic growth does not mean that the stock market will rise
Many friends said, no, this time it is different. Vietnam is playing the role of China more than 20 years ago, with strong economic growth momentum and will replace China's manufacturing industry in the future. Ours is theirs.
Let’s think this statement is correct, so what if you look back at the Chinese stock market 20 years ago?
20 years ago, Shanghai Composite Index 2000 points, and now it is around 3500 points. It only rose 75% in 20 years!
If you look at the Shenzhen Component Index, it will rise by 3 times. 3 times in 20 years, really not much. You should know that China's GDP has increased nearly 20 times in these 20 years! In other words, the stock market has not kept up with the increase in GDP at all!
This means that 's economic growth is fast, and it does not mean that the stock market index will rise sharply . So the above judgment on the Vietnamese stock market is probably better to be careful!
The fundamentals of Vietnam's economy cannot support the stock market rush
Vietnam's economy is growing rapidly, how fast is it?
From 1980 to the present, Vietnam's GDP growth rate has never exceeded 10%, and the average growth rate in the past 30 years is 6.7%. At that time, our GDP grew by double-digits for several years.
Compared with our GDP growth rate, it is simply overwhelming them. We can't support the stock market's thunder, let alone them.
Vietnam's GDP has only increased by 7.3 times in 20 years. But the Ho Chi Minh Index has increased by 13 times!
Some people say, it’s not right, the US economy is growing slowly, but US stock has risen more than 4 times in the past ten years!
Understand this problem and you have to figure out that There is a fundamental difference between Vietnamese stock market and US stocks .
The listed companies in the Vietnamese stock market are basically domestic companies, while US stock companies have layouts around the world. They make money from the world. They cannot only use the US economic growth rate to measure US stock market .
In addition, many foreign companies are listed on the US stock market, such as Alibaba , Baidu, and Pinduoduo. These companies are making money in China, and Americans are sharing money there.
So, can Vietnam become a world factory in the future?
is difficult to achieve!
People who say this usually only see the labor cost advantage in Vietnam.
But if the manufacturing industry is strong, many factors need to be considered. For example:
1. The labor productivity of in Vietnam is very low, and we are 3.8 times that of them;
2. The infrastructure construction and supply chain of in Vietnam are both weak, which will seriously restrict the development of manufacturing;
3. The population growth space for in Vietnam in the future is very small, and it is also facing aging. Workers' wages have also increased by more than 6 times in the past 20 years. It is difficult to sustain .
4.The quality of workers is poor, and the training and management costs paid by enterprises are high; it is not conducive to innovation and it is difficult to upgrade the manufacturing industry.
5. has many competitors . Now there are other Southeast Asian countries competing for low-end manufacturing, and there may be Africa in the future.
Vietnam stock market market value is too small, and it is easy to surge and plummet
Vietnam stock market is so bullish in the past year. The main reason is that there is too much water in the world. But why are the stock markets in other countries not so much?
This is mainly because the total market value of in the Vietnamese stock market is too small! About
In other words, the combined market value of all listed companies in Vietnam is not comparable to that of one Moutai (about 2 trillion).
The Ho Chi Minh City Exchange owns 385 listed companies; of which 36 companies have market capitalization of more than US$1 billion, and 101 companies have market capitalizations of between US$100 million and US$1 billion. As for the Hanoi Exchange companies, the smaller ones can be ignored!
So, buying Vietnamese stock market is similar to playing junk stocks on A-shares, and fundamental analysis is almost useless.
Just a little market value, central bank can just put some water on it and you can blow the stock price up! But equally, if the funds flow out a little, the stock price will be scattered!
In the first half of this year, foreign capital has accumulated 6 trillion VND (approximately RMB 10.1 billion), 2.2 times that of the same period last year.
Therefore, smart institutional investors are gradually withdrawing, leaving Vietnamese retail investors to take over and have fun! As the global economy recovers, central banks receive currencies, and Vietnam's stock market has a 50% decline waiting for it.
Don’t you believe there is a 50% drop? Let’s take a look at history!
Three times, I returned the money to me, I want to go home
The first round of bull and bear: July 2000-March 2002
One year, the market index rose from 100 points to 570 points; then in about 1 and a half months, it fell from a high of 571 to 203 points, a drop of 64%!
Second round of bull and bear: January 2006-March 2009
2007 market index rose from 300 points to 1100 points, a nearly 4 times increase; after the 2008 financial crisis, it fell by more than 60% in one year!
The third round of bull and bear: January 2016-April 2018
rose from 520 points to 1200 points in two years, and then fell to 650 points, a drop of 46%!
In fact, the Vietnamese stock market is very similar to the Chinese stock market in the 1990s. If you compare it, you will know.
The first round of bull bear: 990.12.19-1992.11.17;
- 00 points-1429 points-386 points (73%);
- nd round of bull bear:
- 992.11.17-1994.7.29;
86 points-1558 points-333 points (78%); - 1. The rapid economic growth does not mean that the stock market index will rise sharply;
- 2. Vietnam's GDP has only increased by 7.3 times in 20 years, and the Ho Chi Minh Index has increased by 13 times! The stock market overdraws future growth;
- 3. The market value is small, the degree of retailization is high, and a small amount of funds will fall sharply; (the market value is not as good as Moutai, but Moutai has fallen by 40%)
- 4. The valuation is not cheap.
The third round of bull and bear: 994.7.29-1995.5.17;
33 points-1052 points-512 points (down 50%);
The fourth round of bull and bear: 995.5.18-1996.1.19;
12 points-2245 points-998 points (down 55%).
will not be mentioned later. In addition, this time, A-shares have had 10 bull and bear markets, and they are thrilling every time.
is now the fourth bull and bear market in the Vietnamese stock market. How much will it fall? Let's wait and see!
Retail investors' home
The Vietnamese stock market has a very high degree of retail investment, accounts for 80%-90%, and the speculative atmosphere is particularly strong . Most of them believe in "technical analysis" and gossip, and know nothing about company fundamental analysis. They don't even look at financial reports when buying stocks, let alone value investment.
This is actually exactly the same as the early Chinese stock market. It is said that a reporter asked an aunt stockholder at that time: Auntie, do you know the business situation of the company behind the stock you bought?
Aunt said: What are you talking about? Is there a company behind it? I just know that buying stocks will make money.
Even in 2007, an aunt bought a QDII fund, and the reporter asked her if she knew what QDII is.
The aunt's reply was magical: How can we ordinary people know this?
The reporter asked again: Why did you buy this fund?
Auntie said: My friend bought it and made money!
As for what happened later, everyone understands it in 2007!
The characteristic of retail investors is a wave of flow, buying and selling, so it is likely to swell the stock price beyond imagination. This is not uncommon in the A-share market. But the sourness and refreshing feeling when falling will be unforgettable.
China's salary in the 1990s was only a few hundred yuan, which could make the stock market fluctuate. Now the average salary in Vietnam is close to 2,000 yuan, and this year's stock account opening volume has exceeded the record. It seems that this good show is about to be staged.
valuation mystery
Some people think that the current price-to-earnings ratio of the Ho Chi Minh Index is around 18 times, compared with Thailand, Indonesian , and Malaysia , which is not expensive.
But it should be noted that most of the Ho Chi Minh Index are banks, real estate and consumer categories.
and the reasonable price-to-earnings ratios of these three industries are not high. For example, the average PE of A-share banks is 7 times, while the PE of banks in the Ho Chi Minh Index is basically higher than 10 times, or even more than 15 times!
For example, the average PE of A-share real estate is 16 times, while the real estate PE in the Ho Chi Minh Index is generally higher than 20 times, and there are even stocks that reach 60 times.
So is the valuation of high? You have to carefully analyze .
Total
Regarding the current Vietnamese stock market, what should be noted:
However, due to the small market value and many retail investors, even if the stock price is already unreasonable, it may be crazy when it becomes crazy and rises to subvert the perception.
Should I follow the crazy? You should think carefully.
