1. Core logic: The growth rate of consumer business is faster than that of the industry, and the power and energy storage businesses are expected to be latecomers
First, under the dual background of the steady increase in the market share of domestic mobile phone brands, the remaining active participants will re-share market share.
Company's market share of laptop batteries (including tablets) in 2021 reached 27.17%, ranking second in the world and enjoyed a high share; its market share in smartphone batteries was 6.84%, ranking fifth in the world. The company holds a certain share of the leading domestic mobile phone brands, accounting for about 23% of the Huawei share in 2019, and in 2020, accounting for about 20%/18% of the OPPO/ Xiaomi share. From 2015 to 2021, Huawei, Xiaomi, OPPO and VIVO's total global share increased from 18% to 43%. The company has fully benefited as an upstream supplier in the context of the steady increase in the market share of domestic mobile phone brands. In addition, with the strategic transfer of overseas major manufacturers, the company will gradually take over the shares of Apple and Samsung . The company's customers cover all leading consumer electronics manufacturers, and the channel construction is becoming increasingly perfect. Assume that the company's market share of laptop/mobile phone batteries rose to 34%/18% in 2024, corresponding to the annual compound growth rate of shipments is about 8%/38%.
Secondly, under the trend of integrated battery cells + Pack industry, the company's consumer pack production capacity has expanded, which has promoted the increase in self-supply rate and increased unit product value.
Company's average selling price of laptop pack products in 2020 is 53% higher than that of battery cells, and mobile phone pack products are 29% higher than that of battery cells. The company's pack production capacity is increasing. Assuming that the self-supply rate of laptop/mobile phone packs increases to 48.3%/64% respectively in 2024, the company's overall pack self-supply rate is expected to reach 55%, of which the increase in the self-supply rate of packs will boost the unit price of laptop products by 13%.
Under the background of rising volume and price, the company's consumer business growth rate is higher than the industry average. As the leader in consumer batteries, the company enjoys a high voice for downstream customers. Costs are expected to be transmitted smoothly in 2022 and gross profit margins are gradually recovered.
In the fields of power and energy storage batteries, the company is expected to successfully break through with its technical accumulation, mass production capabilities and high-quality customers. In addition, the company is actively deploying cutting-edge lithium battery technologies and is expected to gain a foothold in the fields of power and energy storage batteries. In terms of
technology, the company has reserved core technologies in the fields of consumer battery safety, energy density, cycle life, rate performance, low temperature performance, intelligent manufacturing, etc. Related technologies can be transplanted or improved for use in power and energy storage batteries. In terms of cost of
, the company's planned production capacity will reach 28GWh, and 3GWh will be the first to reach production in the first half of 2022, with a scale advantage. With the acceleration of the localization process of aluminum-plastic film , there is room for further cost reduction for soft-pack batteries. In terms of
customers, the company's new customers in 21 years include leading car companies such as SAIC and General , the leader in communication and power equipment, and the leader in ZTE Communications , and the European energy storage system integrator , and the circle of high-quality customers' friends continues to expand. Soft-pack batteries are an effective supplement for square batteries. As a member of the soft-pack battery camp, the company will fully enjoy the return process of domestic soft-pack battery market share in the process of increasing the penetration rate of solid-state batteries.
2. Resonance of multiple factors, the company's consumer business growth rate is higher than the industry level
.1. Domestic mobile phone brands are rising, and mobile phone battery shipments are showing a growth trend in the 5G era Global smartphone shipments are stable, but in the process of improving the market concentration , domestic mobile phone brands represented by HXOV performed outstandingly, and their total share continued to increase.
Since 2015, the overall global shipment of smartphones has been stable, and smartphones have entered a mature stage, and the penetration rate has slowly increased from 75% to 85%.
In 2020, due to the impact of the epidemic, production capacity was limited and demand was suppressed. Global mobile phone shipments were 1.281 billion units that year, a year-on-year decrease of 6.7%.
As the epidemic eases, the supply side of 5G is improving, and global mobile phone shipments have recovered. In 2021, the global mobile phone shipments were 1.355 billion units, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%. With the strong demand for 5G mobile phones and the shortage of 4G mobile phone components improves, global mobile phone demand will continue to be released in the future.
From 2013 to the present, domestic brands represented by Huawei, Xiaomi, OPPO and Vivo have made great efforts in the three aspects of software-hardware-channels, and their market share has gradually increased, with a total market share in 2021 reaching 43%.
According to a 2022 Strategy Analytics survey report, half of British mobile phone buyers believe that Xiaomi and OPPO are first-tier brands that may be rising, and Chinese brands are rising around the world.
G The mobile phone era is approaching, and the single-player capacity has increased, and the growth trend of global lithium battery capacity of smartphones remains unchanged in the medium and long term. G bandwidth can support 100M (5 times the 4G broadband), increasing the workload of 5G mobile phone baseband and RF modules. G mobile phones generally support downlink 4 antenna reception/uplink 2 antenna transmission, while most 4G mobile phones only support downlink 2 antenna reception/single antenna transmission. The power consumption of G mobile phones has increased. In order to maintain the same power consumption time, the average charging capacity of 5G mobile phones needs to be higher than that of 4G mobile phones, and the average battery capacity of global smartphones has increased. 019-2022 OPPO5G mobile phones have an average charge of 3963mAh/4288mAh/4585mAh/4933mAh, with an annual compound growth rate of about 8%. It should be seen that even if smartphone sales fluctuate, in the context of the increase in penetration rate of 5G mobile phones, the increase in the average capacity of mobile phone batteries can offset the downward fluctuation of mobile phone sales, and the global lithium battery capacity of smartphones will continue to grow in the medium and long term.
Assuming that global smartphone sales in 2024 will be 1.4 billion units, 5G mobile phone penetration rate will be 67%, and the average single-machine charge capacity will be 4.68Ah. Based on this, global smartphone lithium battery shipments will reach 25.1GWh, with an annual compound growth rate of about 7% from 2020 to 2024. The capacity of
laptop lithium battery is relatively stable.
Laptop and tablet computers have the highest charge amount and screen size. For example, the latest 13/14/15/16-inch MacBook Pro has 58.2/70/83.6/100Wh respectively.
According to public information, CPU thermal design power consumption/reference power consumption remains stable, and gaming laptop graphics card power consumption is on the rise. The shipment of medium and long-term laptop lithium batteries fluctuates with product sales. Assuming that the sales of laptops/tablets in 2024 will be 26/157 million units, the average charging capacity will rise slightly to 63/31.5Wh. It is predicted that the corresponding lithium battery shipment of laptops/tablets will be 16.3/5GWh, respectively, and the total lithium battery capacity will be 21.3GWh.
.2. Overseas major manufacturers are shifting their strategic strategy. The current consumer battery market channel is the key to winning Overseas battery cell manufacturers are moving towards motivation, and the remaining active participants take over the corresponding share. The growth rate of the consumer electronics industry is gradually slowing down, and the power battery industry, as a new growth point for lithium batteries, has attracted many companies to make layouts. Overseas major manufacturers such as Panasonic , LG chemistry , and Samsung SDI have transferred part of the production capacity to power batteries. Among them, Panasonic focuses on supplying Tesla .
The focus of overseas major manufacturers has shifted their focus to domestic battery cell manufacturers. ATL, as a supplier of Apple, Samsung and Huawei, has risen strongly. In 2012, it ranked first in the world's global polymer lithium battery shipments and has maintained it to this day.
016 After 2016, major overseas consumer companies have frequently encountered problems, and the company actively expanded production and seized market share. According to the company's announcement, the company's market share of laptop batteries (including tablets) in 2021 reached 27.17%, of which the laptop battery market share reached 30.48%, ranking second in the world, and its market share in smartphone batteries was 6.84%, ranking fifth in the world.
consumer batteries have been developing for more than 30 years. The current technology and process costs are relatively mature and stable, and channels have become an important factor affecting the industry structure.
After 2010, with the rise of touch-screen smartphones and tablets, the demand for laptops to be portable and thin and light, and the penetration rate of consumer soft-pack batteries has increased year by year. According to Techno Systems Research statistics, soft bags account for 95.0%/89.7% of notebook/smartphone lithium batteries in 2021, and cylindrical and square battery cells in the industry were forced to be eliminated during the reshuffle.
In the past evolution of the pattern, BYD , Lishen , BIC, etc. were bound to traditional mobile phone giants Nokia , Motorola , and were impacted by the changes in the mobile phone industry around 2010.
In today's 5G smartphone era, Samsung and Apple's share is relatively fixed, while the global share of domestic brand HXOV continues to increase, and corresponding suppliers are expected to benefit.
company channel construction is becoming increasingly perfect, customers cover all leading consumer electronics manufacturers, and the company's products are close to full production and sales.
has been deeply engaged in consumer polymer soft package lithium-ion battery . From 2012 to 2016, the company successively entered the supply chain of laptop manufacturers such as HP , Acer , Asus , Dell , Lenovo , Microsoft , Amazon and other laptop manufacturers, and became Lenovo's first supplier.
company first cooperated with Xiaomi in 2012 and became its main battery supplier. Then it entered the supply chain of Samsung, OPPO, Huawei and other manufacturers from 2016 to 2019. Compared with other consumer battery cell factories,
has a more comprehensive customer layout. Although the current market share of the mobile phone battery business is relatively low, the company has a place among the leading domestic mobile phones. According to the company's prospectus, on the mobile phone, the company's share in Huawei in 2019 was about 23%, and in 2020, the share in OPPO/Xiaomi was about 20%/18% respectively.
production capacity is the main bottleneck in the company's sales growth. The capacity utilization rate in 2018-2021 was 91%/83%/93%/82%, respectively, and the production and sales rate of was 97%/102%/99%/97%, respectively. The company's products are close to full production and full sales. The company began mass supply to manufacturers such as Apple and Samsung in 2021. As the company's production capacity expands, it is expected to become the company's business growth driver in 2022. The
fundraising project was carried out smoothly, and the production capacity continued to expand, promoting the company's market share.
Company built a Zhuhai polymer lithium battery production base through an IPO fundraising project. After the project is completed, it will increase the production capacity of 155 million polymer lithium-ion batteries to the company. After the company's convertible bond approval was approved, 36 million new stacked lithium-ion battery cells were added. It is expected that the company's battery cell production capacity will reach 750 million in 2024. The total market share of the domestic mobile phone brand HXOV has increased. Coupled with the strategic transfer of overseas battery cell factories, the company has gradually taken over the share of Apple and Samsung mobile phone , and its market share is expected to steadily increase.
.3. Integration of battery cells + Pack is the future trend. The integration of battery cells and modules is the general trend. The vertical layout of the battery cell factory industry chain can help enterprises get close to customer resources and ensure stable orders. The consumer battery industry is highly mature and has relatively stable end customers. Battery cell manufacturers can directly reach end customers when they enter the Pack market, which can better meet the personalized needs of end customers. head consumer battery companies, such as ATL, Samsung SDI, and LG Chemistry, are equipped with a certain proportion of Pack production capacity, and the remaining part is completed by a third-party module Pack factory. Battery cell factories complete Pack production by themselves, approach and master terminal customer resources and enhance their overall competitiveness. Companies that have both battery cell and pack packaging capabilities are expected to obtain more market orders and increase their company's market share.
From the perspective of the Pack factory, in order to stabilize its own Pack market share, master the strategic resources of battery cells, and improve the gross profit margin level, it will also extend its layout to battery cells. Xinwangda successively acquired 51% and 49% of Dongguan Liwei's equity in 2014 and 2018, and the battery cell self-sufficiency rate continued to increase from 8% in 2017 to nearly 30%. Desai Battery In 2020, it plans to integrate ATL's Pack factory NVT to create a synergistic effect with ATL's battery cells and drive its own Pack share. However, from the perspective of R&D expense ratio, battery cell factories have higher R&D expense ratios, and relatively speaking, battery cell technology barriers are firm. For end customers, battery cell factories are more likely to gain favor from leading customers with advanced technologies such as fast charging and long cycle life.
In the future, the mutual penetration of battery cell factories and pack factories will be the trend. Companies that only have battery cell or module pack production capacity will have a decline in their voice, and the market space will be squeezed.
Company Pack’s capacity expansion will drive the company’s self-supply rate to gradually increase in the future.
Company has expanded from battery cell manufacturing to polymer soft-pack lithium-ion battery pack field since 2011, and has successively passed the Pack certifications of Xiaomi, ZTE and HP in 2012, 2014 and 2018. In recent years, terminal customers who directly supply Pack products have added Huawei, Dell, OPPO, Acer, etc.
Company laptop Pack self-supply rate has room for improvement. The self-supply rate of laptop packs from 2018 to 2020 was 4.8%/10.3%/13.0%. The self-supply rate of mobile phone packs is relatively high, maintaining between 40% and 50%. After the completion of the company's IPO project, it will add 111.5 million mobile phone and wearable lithium battery packaging capabilities to the company. The company's own Pack production capacity has increased, driving the growth of Pack product sales.
Pack The unit value of the product increases, and the product profit increases accordingly. In 2020, the average selling price of laptop pack products in the company was 53% higher than that of battery cells, and the average selling price of mobile phone pack products was 29% higher than that of battery cells. From 2018 to 2020, with the company's laptop pack self-supply rate increased from 5% to 13%, and the gross profit margin of laptop packs increased from 17.6% to 34.2%. Laptop Pack Assembly Product series and parallel circuit is more complex than mobile phone Pack, with higher technical thresholds, and enjoys higher premium and gross profit margin levels. In 2020, the company reduced the average purchase price of protective boards by purchasing some protective board base plates and further increased the assembly profit of laptop-type packs. (Report source: Yuanzhan Think Tank)
3. Consumer leaders have increased their investment in power and energy storage battery businesses, building new growth points for profits
.1. Demand at home and abroad resonates, and global automotive electrification is rushing forward 021 China's demand for new energy vehicles continued to exceed expectations, and the electrification rate has repeatedly hit new highs. In terms of sales, domestic new energy vehicles sales reached 3.51 million in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 165%. Electrochemical continued to accelerate, with the annual penetration rate in 2021 being 13.4%, and the penetration rate from January to April 2022 climbed to 20.2%. The impact of the demand for road rights of
has further weakened, and the proportion of sales of new energy vehicles in limited license plate cities has continued to decline.
2017-2022 new energy vehicles sales in license plate-limited cities correspond to 39.6%/41.4%/39.5%/37.1%/28.8%/19.9% respectively. This shows that the penetration rate in second- and third-tier cities is gradually increasing, the policy rights of roads affect marginalization, and consumer demand leads the market trend. Similarly, the proportion of non-operating new energy passenger cars has gradually increased in the past four years, at 71.2%/86.3%/87.4%/90.6% respectively.
policy orientation has weakened, and the new energy vehicle industry has turned into a market-driven one.
subsidy policy is gradually declining. On April 23, 2020, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology, and the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Notice on Improving the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles", clarifying that the subsidy for new energy vehicles will be extended by 2 years to 2022. In principle, the subsidy standards for 2021-2022 will be reduced by 20%/30% on the basis of the previous year; the subsidy standards for public use in 2021-2022 will be reduced by 10%/20% on the basis of the previous year. The decline in subsidies in the second half of 2019 led to car companies vigorously rushing to install. Now there is no influence of policy factors, and the penetration rate is still steadily increasing, indicating that my country's new energy vehicles have entered a new stage driven by consumer demand.
European carbon emission constraints are becoming stricter, and the long-term upward trend is not changed. In 2021, Europe's new energy passenger car sales reached 2.26 million units, an increase of 65.6% year-on-year. In 2021, European Xinyuan Automobile continued its high growth trend last year. The penetration rate of EU new energy passenger cars in Q1-4 was 13.9%/15.9%/18.9%/24.5% respectively, with an average penetration rate of 18.0%. With further pressure on carbon emission policies, more pure electric models appear in the market, and the proportion of pure electric passenger cars will continue to increase.
Carbon emission pressure is increasing, and car companies are seeking to transform electrify.
In December 2019, European Commission released the "European Green Agreement". Starting from 2021, the average carbon dioxide emissions of newly registered cars in the automotive field are required to be less than 95g/km of carbon dioxide emissions of newly registered cars in large auto companies (the annual registration volume of cars is more than 300,000). If the standard exceeds the standard, it will be fined 95 euros per vehicle per 1g/km. In 2020, Europe's overall carbon emissions were 108.2g/km, far higher than the 95g/km standard. In July 2021, the EU passed the Fit For 55 bill, proposing that carbon emission standards will drop by 55% from 2030 on the basis of 2021 and 100% from 2025. It is difficult to break through the energy conservation and emission reduction technology of automobiles, and it is inevitable that auto companies can transform into new energy vehicles.
American electrification is still in its infancy. In 2021, the sales of new energy vehicles in the United States were 667,000. Compared with China and Europe, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the United States is relatively low. The penetration rate in 2021 reached 4.3%, an increase of 2.1pct from the 2020 penetration rate of 2.2%.From the perspective of model structure, the United States' new energy vehicles are mainly pure electric vehicles , with an annual EV accounting for 74%.
Democratic Party promotes the accelerated implementation of the new energy vehicle policy. The House of Representatives passed the "Reshaping a Better Future" Act, the highest subsidy for bicycles in the world is expected to be implemented, and the penetration rate will increase rapidly. On November 19, 2021, U.S. House of Representatives passed a 1.75 trillion expenditure plan, of which 320 billion will be used for clean energy and electric vehicle tax credits, and the maximum bicycle tax credit is $12,500. Tesla and General Motors, which had lost subsidies after the cumulative production of more than 200,000 vehicles, are expected to regain subsidies. The policy is expected to be implemented in 2022. On August 5, 2021, the executive order was signed to require the electrification rate to reach 50% in 2030. As carbon emission policies become stricter, electrification of domestic American automakers has accelerated.
is the general trend of global electrification, and sales of new energy vehicles are expected to continue to increase, and demand for power batteries is rising accordingly. Based on the logic of increasing the penetration rate of electric vehicles every year, it is estimated that China/overseas new energy vehicle sales will be 921/8.98 million vehicles in 2024. Affected by the rise in upstream raw material prices, assuming that the proportion of PHEV increases in 2022, it will then decline. In addition, based on the assumption of electric charge of EV passenger cars, PHEV passenger cars, passenger cars, and special vehicles, the global installed power battery capacity in 2024 is expected to be 882GWh.
.2. Global energy transformation is accelerating, and the demand for lithium battery energy storage is booming Energy storage is an indispensable link in the global energy transformation process. Only with renewable energy installations with energy storage can the complete replacement of traditional fossil energy installations. Major economies around the world have successively proposed long-term " carbon neutrality " targets, and emission reduction has become a global consensus. The use of fossil energy is the main source of global carbon emissions, and energy transformation is the only way for all economies to achieve long-term carbon emission goals. In order to achieve energy transformation, the global electrification rate and the proportion of renewable energy power generation still need to be significantly increased. Countries around the world have formulated development strategies to accelerate the adjustment of the energy structure.
wind power and photovoltaic have natural intermittent and volatility. As the installation and power generation scale increase, the impact on the power system will become more and more obvious. The energy storage system adjusts the output of the power generation terminal through charging or discharging, and then matches the load of the power consumption terminal, so the stability and reliability of the power system can be maintained while reducing carbon emissions.
Electrochemical Energy storage maintains high growth, among which lithium-ion batteries dominate.
According to CNESA statistics, as of the end of 2021, the cumulative installed capacity of the global power system has been put into operation and energy storage projects, with a total installed capacity of 209.4GW, a year-on-year increase of 9%.
Among them, the cumulative installed capacity of pumped storage was the largest, at 180.5GW, a decrease of 4.1% from the same period last year, and the cumulative scale accounted for less than 90% for the first time. Although pumped storage is large in scale, long in life and mature in technology, construction can only be carried out in areas with specific natural terrain conditions. Therefore, the growing demand for power storage still needs to be filled by other forms of energy storage.
From the perspective of the newly added installation, among all new energy storage technologies , lithium-ion batteries occupy an absolute dominant position. Lithium battery energy storage has great advantages in terms of cycle times, energy density, response speed, etc. With the continuous decline in costs, the application space of lithium battery energy storage has emerged, with the largest cumulative installed capacity, at 23.2GW.
electrochemical energy storage ushered in an explosive period, and China and the United States led the world. According to BNEF, the global installed capacity of new energy storage capacity will reach 58GW/178GWh by 2030, more than five times that of 10GW/22GWh in 2021. From 2022 to 2030, the global energy storage market will grow at a CAGR of 30%. Among them, the United States and China are the largest markets, accounting for 54% of global energy storage devices by 2030.
.3. As an effective supplement to square power batteries, the market share is vast and rationally view the current low market share of soft package batteries in China's power battery market, and the disadvantages of soft package batteries are improving. According to GGII statistics, the penetration rate of soft-pack batteries in China's power battery installations showed a significant decline after 2018, falling below 10%.The main reason is that the concentration of China's power battery market is constantly increasing. At the technical level, CTP batteries and blade batteries empower products in terms of performance and cost. The leading manufacturers first formed a square battery alliance, which is difficult to shake in the short term.
has been gradually improving the disadvantages of low efficiency and high cost of soft-pack battery packing in recent years. Although the grouping efficiency of soft-pack batteries is relatively low, the energy density of the soft-pack batteries itself is higher. For example, the ternary soft-pack single battery cell is 10-15% higher than the ternary square energy density, and the energy density of the two is close at the system level. In terms of soft package structure innovation, Jewell Power launched LCM building block batteries to improve the volume utilization rate of soft package batteries. In addition, with the acceleration of the domestic production of aluminum-plastic films, the price competitiveness of soft-pack batteries has gradually strengthened.
soft-pack battery has excellent performance, and the permeability of the soft-pack battery cell + aluminum shell composite packaging is improved.
Under the trend of consumption and power batteries pursuing fast charging and battery life, high energy density and low internal resistance are one of the mainstream directions for battery product upgrades. At present, the battery cell production process mainly includes winding and stacking type. The soft-pack battery adopts stacking type, and the square and cylindrical are mainly winding type.
stacked batteries have outstanding advantages in terms of energy density, internal resistance , etc.:
) The stacked batteries have higher energy density and outstanding battery life; ) The internal structure of the stacked batteries is stable and the degree of security is high; ) The internal resistance of the stacked batteries is low, and they have strong adaptability to fast charging. Based on the above advantages, BYD blades, honeycomb short blades, etc. all adopt a composite packaging method of soft-pack battery cells + aluminum shells, but they are marked in square shapes when counting the installation volume category, which makes the soft-pack market share "low".
soft-pack batteries are widely configured in leading overseas car companies, and the global soft-pack penetration rate of power battery soft-packs has increased year by year.
The top 20 best-selling models of new energy passenger cars in Europe in 2021, of which 15 models are equipped with soft-pack batteries, involving famous car companies such as Volkswagen, Renault , Hyundai, Volvo , Audi and other famous car companies.
soft-pack batteries have excellent performance, and mainstream European and American car companies in overseas markets are relatively more favored by soft-pack batteries. As LG Chemistry and other companies gradually increase their production capacity, the global soft-pack penetration rate of power batteries has gradually increased, which was 14.0%/16.1%/28.1% respectively from 2018 to 2020, and the market space will be broad in the future.
semi-solid/solid-state lithium-ion batteries will be the first to be commercially available among soft-pack batteries, and soft-pack batteries will be effective as square and cylindrical batteries in the future. Under the semi-solid/solid-state battery system, the problem of liquid leakage of soft-pack batteries under extreme conditions (such as needle puncture) is solved. At the same time, the soft-pack batteries further strengthen the advantages of the high energy density of solid-pack batteries. Some solid electrolytes such as sulfides and oxides and are poor in flexibility and cannot be wound. They can only use the soft-pack laminated process. Solid-state batteries and soft-pack batteries match each other and achieve each other, making them the easiest to be commercially available. Manufacturers such as Weilan, Qingtao, Fengli, Huineng, SES, and others that currently have the fastest commercialization of solid-state batteries, all use soft-pack batteries. As the penetration rate of solid-state batteries gradually increases in the future, soft-pack batteries will become an effective supplement to square and cylindrical batteries and an indispensable and important part.
.4. Consumer batteries have rich experience in R&D, and their power and energy storage businesses have latecomer potential. has been deeply engaged in consumer batteries for more than 20 years and has accumulated rich R&D experience. It can be fully referenced and used in power and energy storage batteries businesses. The company has reserved core technologies in the fields of consumer battery safety, energy density, cycle life, rate performance, low temperature performance, intelligent manufacturing, etc. The electrochemical principles of consumer batteries are essentially the same as those of power and energy storage batteries. Related technologies can be directly transplanted or improved for power and energy storage batteries.
We believe that the company has a good foundation in R&D of power and energy storage batteries, and can effectively split the performance parameter requirements given by new customers in the power and energy storage fields, and complete product delivery within a reasonable period.
Company's power and energy storage battery business have established cooperation with high-quality customers, and its business development momentum is good. Based on the original power customers,
Company established contact with SAIC and General Motors and other car companies through 12V and 48V low-voltage systems to start and stop batteries.In terms of energy storage business, the company has established stable cooperative relationships with ZTE, the leader in communication and power reserve equipment, and Sonnen, the leader in European energy storage system integrator, respectively in the field of 5G base station energy storage/user energy storage.
company uses its own/self-raised funds to increase its power and energy storage batteries, and improves its mass production capacity. After the company's 2.5GWh production capacity in Jiaxing, Zhejiang Province was put into production in the first half of 2022, the cumulative production capacity will reach 3GWh, accelerating the filling of capacity shortcomings and opening up broad growth space. The company issued announcements on November 19, 2021 and March 1, 2022 and signed project investment agreements on investment and construction of lithium-ion power battery production and construction projects and high-performance new lithium-ion battery projects. Currently, the company's cumulative planned production capacity in the fields of power and energy storage has reached 28GWh, and its mass production capacity will be gradually improved.
In summary, in the field of power and energy storage batteries, the company is expected to successfully break through with its technical accumulation, mass production capabilities and high-quality customers. In addition, the company is actively deploying cutting-edge lithium battery technologies and is expected to gain a foothold in the fields of power and energy storage batteries.
company has laid out next-generation battery technology in fundraising projects, mainly including solid-state batteries and lithium-sulfur batteries. The company actively participates in the major special project of "New Energy Vehicles" in the provincial key areas, and cooperates in the development of solid-state batteries with Harbin Institute of Technology . We believe that while transforming power and energy storage batteries, the company actively develops mass production processes and technical routes suitable for next-generation batteries. With its strong R&D genes, rich talent reserves and a complete R&D management system, the company has the foundation and conditions to achieve latecomers in the fields of power and energy storage.
4. Report summary
.1. Consumer batteries contribute cash flow , supporting the development of power and energy storage business is the industry's leading consumer lithium-ion battery supplier. Consumer batteries are the company's main business, and the gross profit margin of laptops (laptops, tablet batteries) is the highest.
's consumer battery business contributes to the company's main operating income, accounting for more than 95% of the company in the past three years. Among consumer businesses, laptops account for the highest proportion, accounting for 59.3%/65.7%/65.5% of the company's operating income in the past three years. The gross profit margin is also relatively high in consumer businesses, 26.6% in 2021, a slight decline from 34.2% in 2020.
mobile phone category is the company's second largest business, accounting for 35.7%/29.0%/26.2% of the company's operating income in the past three years. The gross profit margin is slightly lower than that of laptop category, and it is 22.6% in 2021. The proportion of power businesses is relatively small and are in a loss-making state.
.2. Profit forecast ) Sales volume assumptions in the consumer battery field: the total market share of domestic mobile phone brands HXOV has increased, coupled with the strategic transfer of overseas battery cell factories, the company has gradually taken over the share of Apple and Samsung mobile phones. 's company's production capacity continues to expand, and its market share is expected to steadily increase.
is based on the industry growth rate and the assumption that the market share of laptops in 2022-2024 is 29%/31%/34%, and the market share of mobile phones in 10%/13%/18%, and the sales growth rate of laptops in 2022-2024 is expected to be 2.3%/11.6%/10.5%, and the sales growth rate of mobile phones in 34.7%/41.2%/39.1%, corresponding to the sales of laptops in 2022-2024 of 261/292/322 million, and the sales of mobile phones in 138/195/272 million. The annual compound growth rate of laptops in 2021-2024 is about 8%/38%.
sales unit price and cost assumptions: The company is based in the consumer battery field, and increases battery cell and pack assembly capacity through continuous expansion of production, improves the company's pack self-supply rate, and further opens up profit space.
Assuming that the self-supply rate of laptop packs in 2022-2024 will be 25.5%/34.4%/48.3%, and the self-supply rate of mobile phone packs will be 50%/55%/64%.
unit product value increase and superimposed costs are expected to be transmitted smoothly. Assuming that the unit price of laptop products in 2022-2024 will be 31.1/31.95/33.02 yuan/piece, and the unit price of mobile phone products will be 32.53/32.30/32.34 yuan/piece. Considering that the price of raw materials is expected to decline in the future, assuming that the unit cost of the company's laptop products in 2022-2024 will be 23.97/22.78/23.58 yuan/piece, corresponding to a gross profit margin of 22.9%/28.7%/28.6%; the unit cost of mobile phone products will be 26.10/25.39/25.21 yuan/piece, corresponding to a gross profit margin of 19.8%/21.4%/22.0%.
Based on the above assumptions, it is estimated that the company's consumer business operating income from 2022 to 2024 will be 13.164/16.223/20.102 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.3%/23.2%/23.9%.After deducting equity incentive costs, the net profit of consumer products was RMB 739/1.695/2.201 billion.
) Power and energy storage batteries Company's current orders come from electric motorcycles, start-stop batteries for vehicles, communication power reserves, and home energy storage.
As the company's production capacity expands, its product performance has been recognized by more customers, and it will gradually extend to pure electric vehicle batteries and power storage batteries in the future, forming the company's second revenue growth curve.
Company currently has established stable cooperative relationships with SAIC and GM, ZTE, the leader in communication and power reserve equipment, and Sonnen, the leader in European energy storage system integrators, respectively, in the field of 5G base station energy storage/user energy storage.
Assume that the company's power/energy storage products shipped 0.43/1.05/2.10 GWh from 2022 to 2024, and the unit price is 1.15/1.01/0.97 yuan/Wh. It is estimated that the company's power energy storage business will have revenue of 5.0/1.065/2.035 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024.
021 The company's power production capacity is 0.5GWh, and it is expected to form 3GWh in 2022. The company's subsequent scale effect has emerged, and its costs have been continuously reduced and efficiency has been increased, and its profitability has gradually improved. Assuming that the power gross profit margin in 2022-2024 is 8%/15%/22%, and the net profit margin is -15%/-1%/8%, it is estimated that the net profit in 2022-2024 will be -0.75/-0.11/163 million yuan.
is expected to achieve operating income of 14.06/17.720/22.691 billion yuan in 2022-2024, a year-on-year increase of 35.45%/26.52%/28.05%; net profit attributable to shareholders will be 658/1682/2398 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of -30.38%/155.43%/42.55%, and EPS will be 0.59/1.5/2.14 yuan, corresponding to PE will be 45/18/12 times respectively.
Considering that the company, as a leading consumer battery company, has steadily grown its performance. Power and energy storage businesses will accelerate their growth with the release of production capacity. Referring to the valuation of comparable companies, the company will be given a 24-fold PE in 2023, with a target price of 36.0 yuan.
5. Risk warning
Risk of rising raw materials exceeding expectations, industry competition intensifies risks, production capacity construction is less than expected, performance forecast and valuation judgment do not meet expectations, risk of failure to meet expectations
