Is Shinzo Abe still politically influential after resigning as Prime Minister? Nandu Big Data Research Institute will find out for you through this election.
retreats without a break. 1 in every 8 members of Congress of MPs is "Abe"
July 8, 2022 is the day when Shinzo Abe was attacked and died, and it is also the 660th day after he stepped down as prime minister. According to the observation of Nandu Big Data Research Institute, in these 600 days, Abe has never been away from politics.
Although he no longer serves as prime minister, Shinzo Abe still retains the seat of the Congressman. In September 2021, Abe's successor, Suga Yoshihide , officially resigned. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party will elect a new president, and the new president will also take over as the new Prime Minister of Japan. Although Abe no longer runs for the election, he still publicly expressed his support for the election of Liberal Democratic Party president. In the first round of voting in October, Takashi Saemi ranked second in the number of votes and third in the total votes, and missed the final round of votes. In the end, Kishida Fumio defeated Kono Taro and successfully won.
Later, Abe also mastered the largest faction within the Liberal Democratic Party, the Qinghe Policy Research Association. In November 2021, former House Speaker of the House of Representatives, Hiroyuki Hoshida, who was deeply involved in the "sexual harassment" scandal, resigned as the president of the Chiang-Haoshima Policy Research Association, and Shinzo Abe took over. The "Hoda faction" was thus renamed the "Abe faction".
Nandu Big Data Research Institute sorted out and compared the main factions within the Liberal Democratic Party. The "Abe faction" has undoubtedly the greatest influence and scale. Before this Senate election, including Shinzo Abe, the "Abe faction" had 61 members and 35 senators, a total of 96 members of Congress. Aso Taro 's "Aso School" is second, the "Second-level School" where Nie-level Shotohiro is located is equivalent to the "Kishida School" established by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, both of which are about 40 people, and there are only less than 20 people in the "Second-level School" established by Ishiba Shige . In addition, there are the "Old Shootxia School" and the "Moriyama School". Currently, the Japanese Congress has 713 seats, including 465 seats in the House of Representatives and 248 seats in the Senate. In other words, on average, 1 in every 8 members of belongs to the "Abe faction".
In addition, the "Abe faction" is also important in the cabinet of the current Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.
data shows that the 20 cabinet members appointed by Kishida Fumio include ministers such as defense, diplomacy, economic industry, economic regeneration, economic security, general affairs, revival, and legal affairs. Among them, 13 people were recruited into the cabinet for the first time, 4 people were re-entered, 2 people remained in office, and one person was appointed to change the position of cabinet staff.
From the perspective of faction distribution, the "Abe faction" and "Old Takeshita faction" have the largest number, with 4 people respectively; the "Aso faction" and the "Kishida faction" have 3 people respectively; the "Second-level faction" have 2 people; the "No Sect" have 3 people; and the Komeito Party have 1 person. The cabinet members belonging to the "Abe faction" include: Chief Cabinet Secretary Hiroichi Matsuno; Minister of Economics and Industry Hagida Koichi ; Minister of Defense Nobuo Kishi , who is also the younger brother of Shinzo Abe; Minister of Culture and Science Minister of Science of Matsu Nobusuke.
is working nonstop. Two days before
is attacked, when 5 cities canvassed for 6 people
is attacked, Shinzo Abe gave a street speech at the Yamato Nishidaji Station in Nara City, starting to canvass votes for Liberal Democratic Party Senate candidate Sato. In fact, this is just one of the stops of Abe's intensive canvassing itinerary. Nandu Big Data Research Institute compiled his main itinerary two days before the attack based on public reports from Abe's social media and Japanese media.
Sinzo Abe's itinerary has been filled with the names of senator candidates since mid-June this year. Starting from July 6 alone, Abe has been canvassing the votes for the 6 candidates of the Liberal Democratic Party in five counties and five cities.
On the morning of July 6, two days before the shooting, Shinzo Abe appeared in Onocho, Tamura City, Fukushima Prefecture, a small town with a total population of less than 10,000.He came here to canvass vote for 58-year-old candidate for the congressman Xing Beidou. During the speech, Abe praised his dedication as a doctor's candidate in fighting the epidemic. At noon, he went to the snack bar and tasted the local soul cuisine.
html At 2:30 p.m. on the 6th, Abe arrived in Yokohama City, Kanagawa Prefecture and stood for another candidate, Keiichiro Asao. Asahi is 58 years old this year. She was elected as a member of the Senate in 1998, but she lost one after another in the 2017 and 2021 House elections. This year, he is under a lot of pressure to represent the Liberal Democratic Party in the Senate again. After saying goodbye to Asao, Shinzo Abe went to the campaign site of another candidate Mihara Shunko, , Yokohama City, . This was the third event of the day. When Shunko Mihara was 15 years old, she played Chieko Nishii in " Volleyball Female Player ". htmlOn July 7, Shinzo Abe came to Kobe City, , Hyogo Prefecture, , to canvass vote for candidate Nobusuke Matsu. Matsu, 66, has been a senator since 2004. He is considered to be the "Abe faction" and is currently the Minister of Culture, Culture, Science and Technology in the Kishida Cabinet . At 7 o'clock that night, Shinzo Abe went to the Citizens' Hall in Okayama City, Okayama Prefecture to give a personal speech. The theme of the event was to build momentum for the 39-year-old young candidate, Kimi Onoda.According to the itinerary, after starting canvassing for Sato on July 8, Abe will go to the nearby streets of Kyoto to canvass the votes for local candidate Akira Yoshii. At 12:43 that day, Yoshii Aki, who could not wait for Abe to come, wrote on social media: "I sincerely pray that former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will recover as soon as possible. Violent acts against political activities are absolutely unacceptable. Our goal is to create a society where everyone can live safely."
received sympathy votes, and the number of seats in
has reached the threshold for constitutional amendment
Why does Abe, who is nearly 70 years old, still travel to many places to canvass votes for party candidates? The key is to amend the constitution. Modifying the " Peace Constitution " and improving the status of the Japanese Self-Defense Force has always been Shinzo Abe's long-cherished wish.
According to the Constitution, the Japanese Congress is composed of the Senate and the House of Representatives. How can we amend the constitution? What conditions are required? Nandu Big Data Research Institute searched the relevant information.
The threshold for Japan to amend the constitution is extremely high. Constitutional amendment must be submitted with more than two-thirds of all members of the two houses in favor. In addition, during deliberation, more than two-thirds of all members of the parliament must attend the meeting to meet the conditions. that is, it must meet the "two two-thirds" before a constitutional amendment case can be submitted to Congress. Among them, the House of Representatives needs to agree with at least 310 members, while in the Senate, it will be approved by at least 166 members.
What is the current distribution of seats in the Japanese parliament? Have the conditions required for constitutional amendment been met?
First of all, the House of Representatives. In November 2021, the Liberal Democratic Party and the Komeito Party, which were ruling the alliance, won the 49th National Congress of the House of Representatives, winning 261 and 32 respectively, with a total of 293 seats, more than half (233 seats), maintaining their position as a coalition rule. According to Japanese media reports, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida commented on the election results in this way, first, the ruling party won trust, and second, the Liberal Democratic Party was recognized, and the people chose the ruling alliance to continue to rule under the epidemic. The third point is that the Liberal Democratic Party, which advocates constitutional amendment, and the Komeito Party and the largest winner of the Japan Restoration Association (41 seats), have won more than two-thirds of the seats (310 seats) that are enough to initiate constitutional amendment procedures. In other words, it is no longer a problem to initiate constitutional amendments in the House of Representatives.
So, the key to constitutional amendment lies in the re-election of the Senate this time.
According to the bill passed in 2018, the Senate seats have increased to 248 seats, with the term of office of members of the parliament for 6 years, and half of the members are re-elected every three years. In the election three years ago, the Liberal Democratic Party under Abe lost nine seats. Although the ruling coalition still occupies most of the seats (141 seats), it cannot meet the threshold required to amend the constitution (166 seats).
Three years later, the results of this election, which is regarded as the "mid-term exam" of the Kishida government, were released. The ruling alliance between the Liberal Democratic Party and the Komeito Party won a great victory, winning a total of 76 seats. Looking at the distribution of seats after the election, the Liberal Democratic Party increased to 119 seats, 8 more seats than before, and the Kyoto Party had 27 seats. Abe's last candidate to be elected during his lifetime - Nara Senator Kei Sato was also successfully re-elected.In addition, constitutional amendment forces such as the Liberal Democratic Party, the Gongming Party, the Restoration Council and the National Democratic Party have won more than two-thirds of the seats, crossing the "threshold" to initiate the constitutional amendment process.
officially announced that the turnout rate of this election is about 52%, higher than 48.8% three years ago. "Sympathy votes" have become the focus of media and expert comments, and many Japanese media have also bluntly stated that the "Sympathy votes" that voted for Abe has expanded the advantages of the Liberal Democratic Party. "Shizo Abe's unexpected death made this Senate election a 'mourning battle'!" Japan Kyodo News guest commentator Matsu Okada said in an interview with the media.
is confusing,
What is the Japanese political arena in the "post-Abe era"?
The still influential Shinzo Abe suddenly died in an attack, which will bring a series of question marks. Who will replace Shinzo Abe as president of the Qinghe Policy Research Association? Who will take over the seat of the House of Representatives left by Abe? Zhang Boyu, director of the Political Research Office of the Institute of Japan, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, analyzed in an interview with the media that Abe's sudden death will break the factional structure within the party. At present, there is no one to be chosen for the successor leader of the "Abe faction", and the dispute over succession will inevitably be fierce, and the possibility of the "Abe faction" split cannot be ruled out.
On the other hand, although the Senate election won, the Kishida government still faces problems such as the epidemic, high inflation, soaring energy prices, and depreciation of the yen. Can it be ruled smoothly for a long time? Although the "threshold" of the initiation process has been crossed, will the Liberal Democratic Party's road to constitutional amendment be smooth? Where will the Japanese political arena in the "post-Abe era" go, it remains to be tested.
Produced by: Nandu Big Data Research Institute
Data collection and analysis: Chen Zeran
Graphics: Gandan
Data source: "The Constitution of the National People's Republic of China", Japan Congress, Xinhua News Agency, Japan Kyodo News, NHK, Yomiuri News, Reference News, Global Times and other media reports
Statistical deadline: 2022.7.11
