Russia-Ukraine conflict has been in nearly two months. From the original "the battlefield is full of fog" to the current "the situation is gradually becoming clear", the game intentions of all parties, the direction of the war situation, and the final way of resolving the situation seem to have been basically clearly presented. It can be said that before major powers and groups have fully made strategic interests compromises, the conflict will be difficult to end in the short term through the negotiation methods that the public expects.
——Russia: Russia’s final spearhead against Ukraine was pointed at the United States. Putin made a strong decision to send troops to Ukraine, forcing the United States from behind Ukraine to the front at least from two levels.
superficially, it is a Jedi counterattack against NATO 's five eastward expansions, attempting to fight in one battle, winning geopolitical seat belts in the European sector and gaining political influence . No matter how Putin strives to promote the "Looking East" strategy, he firmly believes that Russia is a European country and ultimately must return to Europe as a big country and a strong country. Russia has made great strategic efforts to this end. However, the United States' obstruction from this has always been a "stumbling block" on Russia's journey to Europe. After more than 20 years of hard work and hard revitalization, especially the blitzkriegia , the retraction of , the Crimea , the Syrian , the entry into Kazakhstan to quell the "January riots", etc., it injected strong confidence into the Russian people in Putin's use of troops. Putin felt that he had stable political prestige and strong military strength to "show off" with the United States, forcing the United States to recognize Russia's security border and sphere of influence on Europe.
, it is the ultimate challenge to the hegemony order of the United States. By shaking the foundation of the international system, sharing world leadership with the United States . It is impossible to maintain the bottom line of national interests without blood, and it is impossible to fight for national strategic position without force. Chairman Mao Zedong forced the United States and the West to accept the reality of "the existence of New China" by the war to resist U.S. and aid Korea. Putin also wanted to use the fact that the Ukraine war to force NATO to recognize the power of the Russian power. Putin is a once-in-a-century political strongman, and he will never want to find Russia's strategic position in an environment where "the world is bitter and beautiful for a long time". Putin, who is 70 years old, is determined to use his personal political destiny and Russian national operations to completely "end the reckless policy of the United States and other Western countries under his leadership to achieve comprehensive domination on the international stage", and at least make Russia an important pole in the "new multi-polar world" that is no less than the United States.
Therefore, since Ukraine is deeply manipulated by the United States, the Russian-Ukrainian war began with the breakdown of the dialogue between Russia and the United States and NATO security issues, and it will surely end with Russia reaching a compromise with the United States and NATO negotiations. If the United States does not officially appear, it will be difficult for Russia to end.
——U.S.: will still block the continued battle before instigating the maximization of conflict returns. Biden is only willing to have a dialogue with the exhausted Putin. The weak but undefeated Russia is most in line with the interests of the United States.
Before Russia's national strength has been greatly overdrawn and has not put down its strong power attitude, the United States will not easily cause Ukraine to cease war . The United States is accustomed to "talking with its opponents from its strength and status". Russia, which has strong military strength and a tough attitude towards the United States, has made the United States extremely uncomfortable. The United States regards Russia as "the only country in the world that has the ability to destroy the United States". After the war between Russia and Ukraine, it launched an unprecedented sanctions war against Russia and implemented large-scale military aid to Ukraine. The fundamental purpose is to drag Russia to death on the Ukraine battlefield for a long time, reduce its war capabilities by defeating Russia's economic foundation, and completely eliminate Russian military threats. At present, although Russia's special military operation in Ukraine "has suffered significant losses", it did not hurt the national strength and military strength foundation. Russia has repeatedly claimed that "the goals and tasks will surely be achieved", so the United States will definitely not stop at this time.
Before China formally intervenes and has not completely become the target of "bundled suppression" with Russia, the United States will not easily compromise with Russia . In the two world wars, the United States is keen to watch the fire from the other side of the river first, and wait until both sides are injured before joining the game and becoming the biggest winner. In this Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the US ideal plan is to divide China and Russia and defeat them one by one. From coercing China to publicly condemn sanctions against Russia, to hyping "China's military aid to Russia", they are all instigating the confrontation between China and Russia.After having to accept the reality that China and Russia are getting closer, the United States will turn its strategy to "bound China and Russia together", attempting to stimulate China to follow Russia's footsteps by planning US political leaders to enter Taiwan, and upgrade and copy the package of sanctions against Russia to China, forcing China to either stand against Russia against Russia or bow to the United States to face Russia in unison, and finally watch Putin fall and Russia collapse.
In short, The United States does not want China to stand on the dry shore like itself, but when China is forced to enter the field to save Russia with all its might, it will bind China and Russia to suppress . If China does not officially enter the market, the United States will not officially appear.
—— EU : neither wants to confront Putin nor let Zelensky fall. He wants to push for a ceasefire but is unable to be completely autonomous. The "mess" of the conflict can only be cleaned up by the EU itself.
In the process of responding to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, we must see that the EU wants to stop the war but seems to be unwilling to cease the war . Russia is not only a "military threat" to the United States, but also regarded by the EU as a "security nightmare". European countries always have a knot of fear of Russia. In addition, Europe not only has to pay for the problems caused by conflict-induced capital fleeing, refugee influx, and energy supply cuts, but also has to clean up the mess after the war. Only when Ukraine loses too embarrasses, can the EU minimize collateral losses. Therefore, on the one hand, the EU's axis law and Germany tried hard to mediate and mediate, on the other hand, the European Commission's president and heads of state of many countries formed groups to visit Ukraine to shake the flag and provide military assistance to Zelensky, hoping that Ukraine could restore the decline on the battlefield.
sanctions against Russia are both factors that are trapped by the United States and have their own "little abacus" . French President Macron has a famous saying: "Russia is the enemy of the United States, so is it must be the enemy of Europe? Europe cooperates with the United States to expel Russia, which may be Europe's biggest geopolitical mistake in the 21st century." The mutual fighting between Europe and Russia will only intensify the "internal injury" of Europe. At the same time, due to the close energy and security relations with Russia, the five rounds of sanctions imposed by the EU on Russia are due to the United States' coercion. However, the EU is smart and takes advantage of the opportunity of conflict to destroy Russia's "small abacus", trying to use the US momentum to "reverse the general public" or even dismember Russia, clearing obstacles for permanent security in Europe and the EU's significant eastward expansion.
It can be foreseen that EU strategic attempts and strategies will only lead to the protracted war in Russia and Ukraine, and will eventually seriously backfire on the EU's own interests and have to swallow the bitter fruits of the crisis and war.
——China: is in the stage of climbing over the hills of being strong but not strong. Development not only requires a stable internal environment, but also depends on a peaceful international environment. If you want to avoid causing trouble, you are destined to be out of the situation.
War is not in line with China's development interests and the capital interests of the United States, but when war is inevitable, we should remember that "the two hegemons must strive for one hegemon" . After sending Nixon to visit China in 1972, Chairman Mao Zedong once again reminded diplomatic staff: "The conflict can be exploited between two superpowers, which is our policy. We must always strive for one hegemon and not fight on both sides." The United States is the profiteering party of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and Russia also has its own strategic interests. In this regard, we must not only prevent being over-strategic by Russia, but also see that what Russia does is to resist US hegemony by force, and should firmly support Russia. We cannot just stop at ensuring that Russia will not lose big, but also strive to win and win beautifully.
Zelensky fell and the United States could support another one. Putin fell and China may face great strategic passive . At the beginning of the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, it was generally believed that the United States plans to first Russia and then China, and then resolve the Russian threat before "encircling and suppressing" China. In fact, the time and space for me to make a turnaround may not be as abundant as I imagined. Biden is full of confidence in "erase Russia's economic growth over the past 15 years and its ability to maintain growth for many years in the future." This may be a matter of fact.If the US conspiracy to "anti-Russia and Popularity" succeeds, Russia, which has "second disintegration", will inevitably turn to the West. China will have to free up huge strategic resources to ensure the stability of the long northern border. It will be difficult to concentrate strategic energy to solve the "two seas" problems of the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea , and the process of rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, which is attacked from both sides, will be completely interrupted.
We must realize that Putin's strategic legacy left after winning the conflict will also be used by China. Therefore, since he chose to "back-to-back" with Russia, without direct intervention, and unable to avoid the war, he must pay attention to his own strategic credibility and become Russia's solid strategic backing, and let the world see China's spiritual outlook to resist the US hegemony, just like 70 years ago.
Looking at the decades of Russia's game between NATO and Russia, Russia's strategic planning and strategic use include both outstanding parts and some unconcealed failures, bringing us a strong and realistic strategic warning:
1. The United States cannot make it feel that China cannot afford to lose.
Russia's firm strategic determination and national will demonstrated effectively reject the direct intervention of the United States, which is worth our deep consideration. Comrade Xiaoping emphasized back then: "We must have the worst-case plan for the United States. We must not be afraid of regression in Sino-US relations, nor are we afraid of stagnation. We must be careful about how to interact with the United States in stagnation and regression." The United States’ strategic view is that “only those who are not afraid of death are worthy of living”. Only by becoming an unbeaten opponent of the United States can one become a friend of the United States . A strategy of striving for strength will always be accompanied by a certain degree of risk. You cannot twitch when you are afraid of the risk of crisis escalation in the game against the United States. is more afraid of something and more likely to come; the more afraid of losing, the more likely it is to lose . The New China won the War to Resist U.S. Aggression and Aid Korea because it was not afraid of "winning a few years later in the War of Liberation", allowing the United States to accept the reality of the existence of New China. In the future, we must be fully prepared for a complete breakdown of relations with the United States. At least we must warn the United States that we have the ability to "although I die, I can make you worse than death", forcing the United States not to intervene in and interfere with my unification process and have to recognize the reality of our nation's rise.
2. You can't wait until the enemy has pressed the gun on his chest before thinking about counterattacking.
The United States continuously manipulates NATO's eastward expansion is also cutting sausages against Russia and stepping on the bottom line step by step. The consideration for provoking the conflict between Russia and Ukraine this time is: if Russia wins, the United States will not suffer losses; if Ukraine wins, NATO will follow the trend and push forward. In short, it was not until the US-NATO artillery range covered Kremlin that Russia remembered to fight back and find the truth. We should be clear that the strategic counterattack of must have advance amount, reserve time and space, and we cannot always let the United States test and step on our bottom line. In the end, even we ourselves do not know where the bottom line is . If Resist U.S. Aggression and Aid Korea is the battle of founding a new China, then China will also face a battle of revival in the game against the United States. If it is destined to be unable to avoid it, then you should understand the principle of "it is better to fight early than to fight late", and you must start from the current timetable and calculate the amount in advance.
3. I can no longer imagine that I deeply integrate the interests of the United States and the West, and the other party dare not take the initiative.
Russia is the world's largest natural gas exporter, the second largest crude oil and condensate exporter, and the third largest coal exporter. It is the absolute lifeline of Europe's energy. However, even if Russia holds the European energy "umbilical cord", it cannot effectively prevent Europe from restricting sanctions and suppressing Russia in all areas as the United States. Because energy is just energy for Europe, but for Russia it is the economic chassis. The most thorough way to reduce a country's war ability is to destroy its economic foundation, and economic resistance to destruction is the basic support for the country's modern war ability . At present, the economy of China and the United States is deeply integrated, thinking that this is the basis for the United States and the West to dare not "break up" with me. In fact, it is easy to become its key way to defeat me.We must re-examine the integration of China and the West. On the one hand, we should speed up the change of the economic chain and science and technology chain structure of China-US and China-Europe, so that the United States and the West depend on us more than our dependence on it, and develop and hold the trump card of "irreplaceable to China" in the life gate of the United States and Western countries; on the other hand, in our core and key areas, we must have the awareness, plans and preparation to actively decouple from the United States. Only in this way can the United States and the West dare not and cannot do anything to us, so we will not be afraid of losing, and we will not lose.
4. I can no longer imagine that I can be alone in the face of international events.
As my country's comprehensive strength continues to increase and its international status leaps rapidly, China's attitude has inevitably affected the direction of major events in the world, and China's position naturally attracts much attention from all parties. During the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, from the United States' attempt to use mechanisms to slaughter China and Ukraine's diplomatic initiative to show goodwill, to frequent dialogue between China and Europe and timely communication between China and Russia, all of which show that our country has become an important party in the international strategic game. However, the sudden outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict this time really reflects that I lack the awareness and ability to deal with major international emergencies, especially the US-Jin's sanctions, Russia has not expected it and lacks the awareness and preparation for strong stress tests. In the future, any international emergencies, whether it is the United States and other major countries that tempt China into the market or small countries to look forward to China's role, my country will no longer be out of the matter and may even become a party. It is necessary to strengthen its ability to respond to major crises and ensure that its own interests are effectively protected in the international storms.
5. We cannot simply believe that the US hegemony is accelerating the decline of .
In recent years, China's influence has been increasing, but the argument that the US hegemony has accelerated decline is endless, and the people are trapped in great paralysis and complacent, so that we often really think that the United States has come to an end. In fact, the arguments about the decline of the United States mostly stem from the United States’ own strategic circle. After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the United States demonstrated strong leadership and mobilization in order to "encircle" Russia, especially in the Western camp. It not only made Russia's "flash attack on Ukraine" plan stranded, but also gave us a "thrilling lesson." Strategic contempt is necessary, but you must also be sober. Contemptuous of the enemy does not mean that the enemy is really not good . China is developing and progressing rapidly, and the United States has not stopped moving forward. In recent years, China has been deeply persecuted by the US hegemony, but the United States has not yet given China a strong medicine in all directions like Russia. The breadth and intensity of sanctions I may endure in the future will definitely be much higher than Russia. Therefore, we must not underestimate the influence and destructive power of the US hegemony. We must have a clear mind, coordinate the overall situation, grasp the key links, and make preparations for response with a sense of strategic urgency that time is endless.
(The author is a special commentator of Kunlun Ce; source: Kunlun Ce.com [Original] revised manuscript, authorized by the author to publish)
