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Market news
Foreign market price: Formosa Plastics pre-sale quotation in June has not been released, and it is expected to be tomorrow or the day after tomorrow. Previously, the market generally expected that the reduction in June price in June would exceed US$50/ton, but due to the impact of the exchange rate, it is also expected that the reduction may be above 100.
Calcium carbide: The price of calcium carbide has been stable recently, and the downstream PVC profit margin is squeezed and there is an expectation of marginal tightening of the device maintenance. At present, some calcium carbide shipments are not as tight as before. As of May 17: The price of calcium carbide in Wuhai is 4,450 yuan/ton, and the price of calcium carbide in Shandong is 4,900 yuan/ton.
spot market
May 17, today's spot prices remained fluctuating weak and stable, and prices rose and fell. Recently, the continuous rise in calcium carbide prices has brought significant cost-end support, but downstream consumption is still performing average. Although the epidemic situation in Shanghai has improved, demand has not yet fully recovered. The high price driven by costs is difficult to provide sufficient confidence to the downstream. The overall transaction performance is flat, and the spot premium has strengthened.
points in the region, the mainstream price in Hebei is between 8700-8850 yuan/ton (delivered), the market price in North China has been slightly lowered, the market news is calm, downstream procurement needs to wait and see, and transactions are relatively low.
The market price in East China has risen slightly, with the mainstream transaction price of East China Type 5 at 8750-8900 yuan/ton, futures fluctuating, traders' quotations are not very fluctuating, downstream purchasing enthusiasm is not high, and transactions are average.
The market price in South China fell slightly, with the mainstream transaction price of Type 5 between 8800 and 8920 yuan/ton. The downstream demand was weak, and the transaction volume of the point-price source was slightly lower. Some of them had lower prices and profits to promote transactions. The downstream purchased at low prices. Some traders improved their transactions, but the transaction volume did not show significant increase, and the overall transaction remained below the average level.
Futures Market
PVC Futures afternoon closing price: The main V2209 contract closed at 8611 yuan/ton in the afternoon, down 0.55%, settlement price 8649 yuan, holdings of about 369,400 lots, an increase of 32,774 lots month-on-month, and transactions of about 630,000 lots, an increase of 55,857 lots month-on-month.
Zhongshulian Views
Basics, the recent changes are mainly because Western sanctions against Russia are still deepening and extending the duration and extent of the European energy crisis. Oil prices are still in a relatively strong trend stage. In addition, domestic calcium carbide prices have continued to rise, and the downward marginal support for PVC has been strengthened. At the same time, due to the cost side, PVC profits have been greatly compressed, which has also intensified the expectation of marginal tightening of device maintenance. At present, the supply elasticity is still poor. Although demand performed poorly under the drag of the epidemic, social inventory still maintained a trend of destocking. As the epidemic situation in East China and other places is effectively controlled, the constraints of epidemic prevention measures on consumption and transportation have gradually eased. From May to June, under the expectation of stable growth, supply has decreased and demand has improved, and PVC is expected to continue destocking. In addition, the high overseas energy prices and the depreciation of the RMB are beneficial to exports.
Overall, the supply in May is expected to continue to decline under the control of maintenance, but the current range is temporarily limited. Demand is delayed due to the impact of the epidemic, which has led to a weakening of the margin of supply and demand in May. Coupled with the negative sentiment of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike and balance sheet reduction cycle, the market is in a process of pressure in the short term, but the actual support for costs is strong, the supply side is poor elasticity and the expectation of improvement on the consumer side also objectively exists. The short term market is likely to continue to fluctuate style. Wait for the lower margin or upper margin to get closer, and you can continue to consider the opportunity to be low. You need to pay attention to the macro and the risk that demand recovery is not as expected. It is not advisable to chase highs. (For reference only, it is not a basis for entering the market)
Upstream raw materials and alkali
As of May 17:
Wuhai calcium carbide price is 4,450 yuan/ton, stable.
Shandong calcium carbide price is 4,900 yuan/ton, stable.
alkali: The price of caustic soda tablets rises and falls.
As of May 17:
Shandong 32% caustic soda is 1215 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton.
Inner Mongolia 99% tablet alkali was 3950 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton.
On May 16, the Asian ethylene market was stable, with CFR Northeast Asia quoted US$1166-1176/ton, and CFR Southeast Asia quoted US$1216-1226/ton.
upstream construction started
As of May 12, PVC started this week and increased to 82.43%, up 0.26% month-on-month and down 0.34% year-on-year. Three new maintenance companies were added this week. Some maintenance companies last week continued to this week, but the companies that had previously stopped and repaired loads may increase the construction load during the week, and the repair losses were slightly reduced.
The downstream of South China started construction
Inventory
As of 5.13, the week of social inventory was removed. The arrivals were mainly reduced due to the epidemic and the early suspension of installation of South China Railway.
East China is 241,700 tons, a decrease of 53 month-on-month; an increase of 93,100 from the same period last year;
South China is 49,800 tons, a decrease of 4,000 from the same period last year, and 11,900 from the same period last year;
East China and South China are 291,500 tons, a decrease of 9,200 from the same period last year; 105,000 from the same period last year (Zhuochuang)
As of May 13,
The East China region was 236,600 tons, a decrease of 5,100 tons month-on-month, an increase of 89,100 tons year-on-year;
The South China region was 65,100 tons, a decrease of 1,900 tons month-on-month, an increase of 6,900 tons year-on-year;
East China and South China were 301,700 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons month-on-month, an increase of 96,000 tons year-on-year (Longzhong)
Southwest inventory increased by 3,000 tons to 39,000 tons, a decrease of 13,000 in the same period last year.
Main contract long and short positions
Main contract net long and short positions
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