(the picture is from Baidu, delete if infringes)
text ▍ Chen Bo
never thought that it turned out that this Tesla Model X is a car that professional racers may not be able to drive steadily. Of course, it is not only the Model X that has been unstable recently, but also the Tesla sales in the second half of the year and the stock price that has been fluctuating recently.
Richest man, what's wrong with you?
1
In the past two days, three keywords such as Ji. Lin , car accident, and fire have made Tesla, a famous car company in the world, have become a hot search for the first time.
The incident happened almost like this: On the morning of July 22, Jimmy Lin drove a Model X and hit the partition island in the middle of the road on Zhongzheng North Road, Taoyuan City, Taiwan, China. At this moment, the car suddenly caught fire, directly burning the front of the million-dollar luxury car into a pile of scrap iron. Finally, when the accident handler transported the car away, the car ignited flames again. At that time, Jimmy Lin’s 6-year-old son Jenson was still sitting in the passenger seat of the car. Fortunately, neither Lin Zhiying nor his son were seriously injured and are currently under treatment in the hospital.
In the past two years, there have been many problems with safety accidents in new energy vehicles. Because Tesla is famous, it is often possible to post on hot searches for half a day with a little bit of things, but never once caused great controversy like today. Because the accident happened this time was Jimmy Lin. His identity is not only a star who has become popular on both sides of the Taiwan Strait and the three regions, but also a racer with a professional racing team. He also publicly stated that he likes Tesla very much. In addition, when viewing the video, I found that Jimmy Lin was not driving very fast, so everyone questioned Tesla's safety as soon as the incident was reported.
The so-called "misfortune never happens alone". Recently, Musk's gossip on the world has skyrocketed. Tesla's turmoil has also happened one after another, including a month-on-month decline in the second quarter, a proud gross profit margin decline, sales volume surpassed by BYD , and the resignation of the soul of the autonomous driving team, etc.
At the beginning of July, various new car-making forces released the results of "mid-year sales test", among which BYD led Tesla with a sales advantage of nearly 80,000 vehicles and won the global sales championship. According to the specific figures of , from January to June 2022, the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles under BYD were about 641,400, a year-on-year increase of 314.9%, while Tesla's global electric vehicle delivery volume was 564,000 during the same period.
It is reasonable. Tesla's performance in the first half of the year is not because they did not work hard, but because the enemy is too strong. In the first half of 2021, Tesla's global delivery volume was 386,200 vehicles. Judging from the 564,000 vehicles this year, Tesla's growth rate this year was 46% month-on-month. The reason why the enemy is too strong is that Tesla has global sales, while BYD can reach a level that Tesla cannot pursue in one domestic market. Once BYD kicks off and delivers globally, what is going to be better?
Speaking of this, it naturally leads to one of the most serious problems Tesla has now. If Tesla's sales cannot firmly rank first in the world, can their unattainable stock price still hold on?
Investors are optimistic about Tesla because the sales of this car company have been very good for a long time, and the super high sales have supported investors' confidence. On the contrary, if Tesla's sales fall, investors will lose their expectations for the future.
Originally, most investors thought that Tesla would grow into a "myth" like Apple , and would have absolute dominance in the new energy track. However, Tesla's "myth" seems to have gone too far, and its actual growth is not that legendary. Judging from its current market share and profits, Tesla is obviously still a long way from the height of Apple .
bad news always comes one after another, and the gross profit margin, which has always made Tesla proud, also declined in the second quarter. In the first quarter, Tesla's proud gross profit margin reached 33%, and in the second quarter it took a sharp turn and fell sharply to 27.9%, lower than 28.4% in the same period last year, which is the first time that its vehicle gross profit margin has fallen below 30% in the last four quarters.
For Tesla, this form is very unoptimistic. Because while they were regressing, new domestic forces were making secret progress. In the first quarter, the gross profit of Ideal Auto was 2.16 billion yuan, an increase of 250.9% year-on-year. Gross profit margin was 22.6% (17.3% in the same period last year). This shows that Tesla's unique advantage is now being tied by other competitors. If this trend becomes the norm, then there is basically no possibility that Tesla will want to replicate Apple's dominance in the mobile phone field.
It is precisely because investors have discovered this that Tesla's stock price has begun to become turbulent recently. Tesla's stock price has been hovering between $650 and $750 in the past two months.
2
Just as Tesla's stock price fluctuated back and forth, things suddenly reversed.
20 On the afternoon of the 20th, Tesla delivered its second-quarter financial report. Due to Musk's passionate remarks and financial report data, Tesla's stock price rose the next day, once rising 9.78%, setting a new high since May 10. The stock price rebounded, which is actually easy to understand. It is nothing more than Musk’s “big pie” for everyone, giving everyone new and beautiful expectations for Tesla’s development in the second half of the year.
Musk's "big cake" revolves around sales. Just when Tesla just passed the 1 million annual shipment mark, Musk set "small goals for 2022 and 2030: annual sales of 1.5 million and 20 million vehicles. At this financial report meeting, Tesla's CFO said that there is still hope to achieve the guaranteed target this year and is ready to welcome the record-breaking second half of the year. It is very likely that 50% year-on-year growth in production capacity is very likely. Musk added that the company's goal is to achieve 40,000 vehicles per week by the end of this year, while its recent weekly output is about 30,000 units.
According to the current sales volume, if Tesla wants to achieve the target of 1.5 million, then at least 930,000 cars will be sold in the second half of the year and Tesla's stock price has risen, which means that someone believes in this goal. However, I personally said: Tesla, it is hard for me to believe you if you brag like this.
First of all, Tesla's current Shanghai factory and California factory are already in a saturation state. Although there is a certain room for improvement in production capacity, 50% is a bit nonsense. On the other hand, the production capacity of German factories is obviously not as expected. Fast, the climbing capacity is relatively slow. It will take a long time to reach the same production capacity as the Shanghai factory, and the remaining time is less than half a year.
Secondly, even if the production capacity really reaches the expected level, can Tesla be sold? is still possible in the past few years, but it is not certain today. In the US market, one or two local "Tesla killers" appear almost every year, such as Rivian, who went public last year. In addition to these "killers", there is also Jia The boss's FF is eyeing. The European market is even more huge. Which company is not full of fantasy about the new energy market? Let's take a step back, even though the above-mentioned car companies have not yet come up with any good products, fortunately they are iterating very quickly.
puts the perspective back to the Chinese market, so Musk will not be able to speak loudly there. I won't talk much about how strong the new domestic car-making forces are. Everyone understands. BYD, Xiaoliwei, Zeikr , Question World, Nezha and Zero Run are not vegetarians, and now Chinese consumers prefer domestic new energy, which has led to a huge shrinkage of Tesla's market. Although the Chinese market is a treasure land and has strong development ability, it is precisely because of this that the Chinese market is also the most reeling piece. Therefore, Tesla's cake is really unstable and is now in a state of being attacked from both sides. Sooner or later, it will be plundered by other car companies.
Tesla is not without its advantages, but now the range of options for consumers has become wider, so the scarcity of Tesla in the early years has not been very scarce. The intelligent system is not as good as the new domestic forces, and its battery life is not particularly outstanding. Looking at the rough interior, it is even less able to impress Chinese consumers.
Based on Tesla's production capacity and market conditions, Tesla's sales in the second half of this year will not be as optimistic as Musk expected. In the past two years, when new domestic forces had not yet "awakened", Tesla was indeed the most leading company in the market. However, leading for a while does not mean that you will always lead. As the market matures and the more car companies enter, the cake that Tesla can eat will become smaller and smaller and smaller. In the long run, to put it bluntly, Tesla's performance may not be much better in the second half of this year.
Looking back on the past year, Tesla's stock price has increased at an extremely exaggerated rate, which has made them global "trillion market value club". By the way, Musk also enjoys the addiction to being the richest man. The result was that the richest man became more and more prosperous. Not only did he invest heavily in Bitcoin, he also became the spokesperson for Dogecoin , and he also said that he could buy Tesla in digital currency . However, by the end of the quarter, Tesla reduced its holdings of Bitcoin by about 75%, a conversion that added $936 million in cash to its balance sheet. It can be seen that people are still humans after all, and no matter how awesome a person is, they will have a fever.
In short, Musk's biggest competitor is China's new car manufacturing force, because we already have the momentum to beat Tesla in terms of products, and what we lack is the accumulation of technology. Fortunately, Chinese car-making friends have all the iterative capabilities. At the beginning of the second half of this year, two cars with high comprehensive cost-effectiveness, Ideal L9 and M7 were launched. In the mobile phone era, only China's OV Huami and South Korea's Samsung can compete with Apple. I believe that the same is true for the new energy vehicle era, and China will create new glory.
Finally, I would like to persuade the richest man to do this. You have too many gossip news recently, so I should spend more energy and focus on the products. China's , Baidu has removed the steering wheel. When will Tesla do it?
