in the past two days, and there are always slashes in the US stock , and it often takes a roller coaster. The reason should be clear. Mr. Qiao is preparing to let Powell work for four more years
. This is quite unexpected and reasonable. It is said that it is because these two are not from the same group. Judging from the complex situation in the United States, if Commander Bao is a little uncooperated, it is easy to have unpredictable failures. Therefore, in terms of absolute stability, it should be replaced by his own friends.
said that it is because although a lot of things happened in the United States in the past two years, they all rely on crazy printing of silver to survive without exception. Such a generous printing of silver like him cannot be said to be a future generation, but at least in the history of American , it is unprecedented. It can be said that it is quite cooperative. If it is not a particularly suitable reason, it is not easy to continue inexplicably.
In general, this matter has advantages and disadvantages for the United States. First, Commander Bao continues to do it. Federal Reserve has continuity, and the existing operating framework should not change. That is, although the Taper is very slow, it will still increase the range slowly. Finally, there are gradual Tapers like 2013, which are more radical. They even think that they will be more advanced in the original timetable
. Then, while the US stock market fell, the US 10-year Treasury bonds and dollar index are further rising, but these two moves upwards at the same time are not necessarily a bad thing for the United States.
The US 10-year Treasury bond interest rate serves as the anchor of global assets. This should be noted that it is global, and its rise means that the cost of borrowing money is increasing.
Speaking of the big reason why US stocks have risen to the second largest bubble in the past two years, the 2000 century is that the unprecedented surge in the money started last year, which has led to the continuous decline in the interest rate of US bonds and , and the continuous decrease in the cost of borrowing silver. At the most exaggerated time, the cost of interest rates once returned to zero, which is equivalent to infinitely increasing the upper limit of US stocks' valuation.
is now the opposite, and in fact it is the same. When it starts to rise, it also means that the cost of borrowing money will increase. If you borrow it at this time, you need to consider more. After all, borrowing it is not difficult, but it is not easy to ensure that you can obtain higher profits on the basis of it.
So often, if you don’t have that strong confidence at this time, you will become conservative, choose not to borrow money or invest, or even go further, and buy some bonds and other safe-haven risks. If you add the Fed’s Taper at this time, it is easy to lack liquidity, especially those in technology, which are more susceptible to critical hits, because their performance depends more on low interest rates and low inflation.
But fortunately, both the US dollar and US bonds have risen simultaneously. Although US bonds and Taper have reduced the liquidity of the US dollar, the rise of the US dollar index can allow the United States to obtain incremental US dollars from other parts of the world to return to make up for this gap
. For the United States, the US dollar cycle has entered the final stage, but for those with particularly large bubbles, it may be a bad start!
However, I don’t want to talk about these things this time. After all, I rely too much on the inflow of US dollars and I also blow bubbles with it simultaneously, and it is not as strong as it is. The final result can only be clear at a glance.
But for Big A, it is a new beginning. Since the subprime mortgage in 2008, the world has entered a diode era as a whole. What this means is that the economic laws of the world before were greatly affected by the United States, but this is all the past tense, because the United States cannot print unlimitedly without paying anything.
For example, the United States transferred low-end technology and US dollars to the flower growers before, while the flower growers kept exporting goods to obtain US dollars, and then bought US dollars after obtaining them, so that they continued to be happy. On the surface, the United States seemed to have not paid anything, but it was precisely because the money came too easily, and in the end they went to play idle and finally created the super bubble of 2008.
In a sense, with the US's national strength and the full export of flower growers, it has been unable to maintain it in just 7 years.
Since then, the world has entered a two-way cycle, and the laws of the flower farmer themselves have also begun to continuously affect the laws of the world. The most obvious feature is that the export scale of the flower farmer has gradually dropped from 70% of the total amount of GDP to 30%, and the 40% gap has been digested by itself.
. This digestion process is actually an obvious economic cycle, usually around 2.5 years to 3 years. What’s more interesting is that the flower planter’s cycle and the American cycle are not fully synchronized.
Now, we can start to calculate it from 2008. At that time, the world was simultaneously released, and flower growers stopped around 2010, and the United States did not withdraw from infinite easing until 2013. If we choose to use Nasdaq as an indicator, the US stock market rose slightly from 2013 to 2014, and by 2015, it was basically at a high level. In other words, even if the valuation of US stocks is still good in the past three years, it has not performed very well.
But if you have an impression, you should remember that 2013 was the beginning of the Federal Reserve attracting the return of the US dollar around the world, and it was also the beginning of the flower-growing players' silver shortage. This round ended around mid-2015. Later, after more than half a year of recession, it began to rise again in 2016. In 2018, due to the synchronous recession of the strong US dollar and the Sichuan General Assembly, it later entered a recession from 2019 to 2021.
However, this time it was not particularly obvious. In the past, the decline was always accompanied by style changes and large pull-downs. This time, these two situations did not appear obviously, and more of them were oscillations.
So, you can find the following three rules from the past decade.
First Under normal circumstances, 2.5 years to 3 years are used as a cycle, and periodic fluctuations and style conversions are carried out.
second When a strong dollar starts, in order to hedge against , an explosion of medium or above will occur in order to .
Third, if the flower growers and the United States lower interest rates at the same time, they are prone to major outbreaks, such as after 2008 and 2020.
2015 is a bit special. On the one hand, it was because of the high stagflation of the US stock market and other reasons, which caused a large amount of US dollars to run outside. On the other hand, it was because there was heavy rain in the sky, and the water level rose too fast, and the water flooded Jinshan directly. If you are interested, you can check it yourself. I won’t say more here.
However, in addition to the above three situations, there are some subtle differences, that is, the pace of flower planters is one step faster than that of the United States, such as from 2016 to the end of the first half of 2018, while the United States continues until the second half of 2018, and for example from 2019 to the end of the first half of 2021, the United States continues until now, but this time the United States recovers much faster than before. The reason why
formed this law is that on the one hand, it must hedge against the United States, and the strong dollar cycle formed by the good economy. On the other hand, it can also take advantage of its economic opportunity to export more. In this way, even if it has entered a recession period, it can provide certain support because exports are increasing.
If you are careful, you should have discovered it. At this time, three conditions have been met. The arrival of the top 5 US dollar in
html, the three-year cycle is coming to an end, and the total external export volume is decreasing marginally . The three appearances of
at the same time actually indicate that a new round of cycle is about to begin or has begun. If this is not obvious, then the currency gate was deleted before, and these words are self-evident.
This is obviously necessary to make loose credit. According to past experience, there is often a loose currency before loose credit. The difference between the two is that loose currency refers to the central bank giving water to commercial banks, and loose credit refers to the commercial banks sending the water given by the central bank to society. So how to grasp these two points?
According to personal experience, the 10-year treasury bond interest rate of the Zanhuajia has been going down, that is, loose currency, and social financing has been going up, that is loose credit. This time, the reason for bypassing loose currency is to directly guess that there is loose credit.
One is because commercial banks are not too short of money in general, but they just can't let go. The other is because if US bonds continue to rise, they need to maintain a certain interest rate spread as a buffer. Moreover, for some small and medium-sized or high-end manufacturing industries, there are often specific leverages, such as the huge amount of new energy in the past few days. If you want to compare, loose credit is more conducive to overall stretching, and loose currency is more conducive to bonds.
finally summarizes it. The dawn is already in front of you, but the slightest surprise is that this time it will not appear until the end of the year, but there is no way to do anything about it. During this period, oil is soaring and coal is soaring. If one of them is not allowed to continue, then the limitation will be great. inflation will rise faster under the impact of water volume. Now it is time. With coal, oil is not so unrestrained.
Of course, after saying so much, are you really completely worry-free? Actually, it is not. The thing that is a little troublesome now is that the rhythm of style change has not appeared similar to the decline in 2018. Whether this thing will appear will be true. It can only be said that people have different opinions!
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