On October 13, the United States will announce the September Consumer Price Index (CPI), with market expectations of 8.1% year-on-year growth, with the previous value of 8.3%. The next day, China will also announce the CPI value for September, with market expectations rising 2.8% year-on-year, and the previous value was 2.5%.
After the non-agricultural data was released on the 7th, the market's expectations for Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes have been greatly enhanced. If the US CPI continues to break 8 in September this week, and due to the soaring international oil prices of "OPEC+" production cuts, the Federal Reserve's determination to raise interest rates may be further strengthened.
Currently, the price of commodities rises, which may continue to put pressure on the slowdown in inflation in various countries. So, in the global supply chain and with relatively stable prices in China, what will the direction of CPI in September?
Continuous 7html breaking the line in July may become a reality. Can the Fed rate hike still be "regular"?
htmlOn September 13, the US officially announced the consumer price index for August. Among them, due to the continued rise in housing and food prices, CPI still rose by 8.3% year-on-year, while the core CPI rose by 0.6% month-on-month, and both items were higher than market expectations. At that time, the market had basically determined Fed 9 interest rate hike 75 basis points.is the same as in August, and domestic oil prices in the United States fell in September, but expenditures including rent and medical care were growing. This means that the upcoming September CPI still has some pressure. The market expects that the data may be: rose 8.1% year-on-year, 0.2% , or for consecutive months, or 7html is located above 8 in July.
At the beginning of this month, due to the announcement of "OPEC+" that it will cut production by an average of 2 million barrels per day and the unexpected growth of US non-farm data on the 7th, the market has the possibility of the Federal Reserve continuing to maintain a 75 basis point interest rate hike in November, which has been raised by 6.5 percentage points from 85.5%.
data shows that the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates by 300 basis points in this round of interest rate cycle, and the federal funds rate range is currently at 3.00%-3.25%. If the new round of interest rate hikes continues to maintain a pace of 75 basis points, this interest rate range will reach 3.75%-4%, then as the interest rate hike cycle continues, breaking the 4.5% top forecast may be "no problem".
On October 7, New York Fed Chairman John Williams said that the end rate of interest rate hikes in the United States may be around 4.5%. However, he also emphasized that the pace of interest rate hikes and even the final interest rate end will essentially depend on the US economic data. This shows that if the CPI in September is still beyond expectations, it will be difficult to ensure that the Fed will make more radical moves.
In fact, the market's emphasis on US CPI data is due to the current attention to the Fed's interest rate hike. The upcoming Chinese CPI is also one of the basis for the market to judge the trend of China's economic trend.
China 9 in July CPI also has room for growth. What is the expectation of third quarter economic data ?
On September 9, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of my country showed that in August, China's CPI rose 2.5% year-on-year, down 0.2 percentage points month-on-month. Data shows that the price of pork is still an important factor in the impact of the rise in domestic CPI that month. However, due to the offset of the decline in international oil prices at that time, the stability of CPI in August was still supported by conditions.
According to market news, the current prices of foods including live pigs and vegetables are still rising. Analysts pointed out that this may offset the impact of the cut in refined oil prices in September, and CPI will have room for growth. They estimate that my country's CPI year-on-year growth rate in September may be 2.84%, a slight increase of 0.3 percentage points from the August data.
But in fact, compared with other high-pressure inflation in the world, my country CPI still shows a "stable" state. official data shows that in the past decade, my country's CPI average annual growth rate has been around 2%, prices have generally maintained a stable operation state, and the overall price level is in a reasonable range.
With the implementation of a series of prudent measures, my country's current fluctuations in food prices may return to a "moderate" state. In addition, under the influence of other economic measures, my country's economic trend in the third quarter is still at a recovery level. Market data expects that China's GDP may recover to 3.68% in the third quarter.
However, economists say that under various pressures such as the external environment, it is still difficult to achieve 5.5% economic growth this year. However, with the recovery of domestic demand and the launch of infrastructure and other projects, China's economy will continue to warm up in the future. In fact, in the current environment, although there are fluctuations, the Chinese economy also has a lot of "stability".
text | Zheng Hongjie Title | Huang Zixin Review | Zeng Yi
