The National Bureau of Statistics of China will release economic data such as the September CPI inflation report, PPI producer price index, etc., the People's Bank of China will release financial data such as September M2, and the US Department of Labor will release important eco

The most popular central bank official interest rate expects the "dash map" to fully revise the federal funds rate forecast from 2022 to 2024, and is expected to raise interest rates to 4.4% by the end of this year, an increase of 1 percentage point from June's forecast. It will further raise interest rates to 4.6% in 2023 and drop to 3.9% in 2024.

At a subsequent press conference, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that he was firmly committed to reducing inflation . Price stability is the cornerstone of the economy. Without price stability, the economy cannot operate. However, he also emphasized: "It will be appropriate to slow down the rate hike at certain time points."

Powell quoted the FOMC interest rate dot map differentiation, saying that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 100-125 basis points in 2022. He also said: "I don't know what the probability of an economic recession in the United States is. If we want to deal with the problem of high inflation in the United States, we must suffer."

The Bank of England confirmed that it will purchase long-term British Treasury bonds by October 14, with a maximum of 5 billion pounds per bond purchase, and will use reserved prices to ensure the achievement of stable goals. In addition, Fed Vice Chairman Brainard , Bank of England Governor Bailey, and European Central Bank Governor Lagarde will make speeches.

is the main agenda of the global central banks next week:

Monday (October 10): Swedish Central Bank Governor Inves delivered a speech at the annual meeting held by IMF. FOMC voter and Chicago Fed Chairman Evans delivered a speech on economic prospects and monetary policy in 2023.

Tuesday (October 11): US Fed Vice Chairman Brainard delivered a speech , European Central Bank chief economist Lian En delivered a speech, EU held an informal meeting of energy ministers , Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda Haruhiko visited Washington from October 11 to 16, attending the G20 summit and IMF meeting;

Wednesday (October 12): 2022 FOMC vote committee, Cleveland Fed Chairman Mester delivered a speech at New York Economic Club , Swiss National Bank Governor Jordan delivered a speech at Peterson Institute for International Economics , Bank of England Governor Bailey made a speech , European Central Bank Governor Lagarde made a speech, Bank of England Financial Policy Committee released summary of opinions from the latest meeting;

Thursday (October 13) : Federal Reserve Director Barr delivered a speech on new technologies, the Federal Reserve and inclusiveness, Federal Reserve FOMC released minutes of September monetary policy meeting , Federal Reserve Director Bowman delivered a speech on forward-looking guidance on policy tools,

Friday (October 14): ECB Management Committee Holtzman delivered a speech, the Bank of England released its quarterly communiqué, and Federal Reserve Director Lisa Cook delivered a speech on the economic outlook.

economic data

China: Next week, the National Bureau of Statistics of China will release economic data such as September CPI inflation report, PPI producer price index and other economic data; the People's Bank of China will release new loans, M2, social financing total scale and other financial data.

data shows that as pork prices stabilized month-on-month and vegetable prices slowed down, China's CPI turned from rising to falling month-on-month in August, and the year-on-year increase fell from 2.7% in July to 2.5%; affected by the price fluctuations of commodities such as non-ferrous metals , the overall price trend of industrial products declined, and the year-on-year increase of PPI continued to fall from 4.2% in July to 2.3%, and the month-on-month decline narrowed slightly.

, and China's new RMB loans and social financing both rebounded in August, the M2 money supply continued to rebound, and the M2-M1 scissors gap widened: the increase in social financing scale in August was 2.43 trillion yuan, and RMB loans increased by 1.25 trillion yuan.

US: Next week, the U.S. Department of Labor will release important economic data such as September CPI inflation data, September PPI producer price index data, September retail sales data and October University of Michigan consumer confidence index initial value.

Although gasoline prices continue to fall, U.S. inflation is still hot due to the continued rise in housing and food prices: data shows that the U.S. CPI rose 8.3% year-on-year in August, higher than the market's expectations of 8.1%; after excluding the volatile food and energy prices, the core CPI rose 6.3% year-on-year in August, also higher than the market's expectations of 6.1%.

This has greatly increased the market's bet that the Fed will continue to "violent interest rate hikes". Soviet Securities believes that it is difficult for the US core CPI to fall back to less than 5% this year.

Other aspects: Next week, the UK will release August GDP data.

data shows that the year-on-year final value of the UK's GDP in the second quarter was 4.4%, exceeding market expectations of 2.9%.

Financial website Forexlive analyzed that GDP in the second quarter was finally worth a "quite high" correction, indicating that the UK economy achieved a slight expansion rather than a slight contraction in the second quarter. However, despite positive corrections, the UK economy will continue to slow down and the risk of economic recession will certainly intensify in the future.

After the Trass government launched the most radical tax cuts in 50 years, the global rating agency Moody's has lowered the UK's GDP forecast for 2023 from 0.9% to 0.3%, and expects that UK economic growth will not return to potential levels by 2026.

Below are important economic data next week:

Monday (October 10): China's September financial data (not determined from September to 15) , Eurozone October Sentix Investor Confidence Index;

Tuesday (October 11): Japan's August trade account (billion yen), UK's three-month ILO unemployment rate, UK's September unemployment rate, US September NFIB small business Industry confidence index;

Wednesday (October 12): The Bank of Korea announced interest rate resolution , UK August GDP, UK August manufacturing output, UK August industrial output, euro zone August industrial output, US September PPI, OPEC released monthly crude oil market report;

Thursday (October 13): US API crude oil inventories (10,000 barrels in the week from October 7 ), Germany's final CPI value in September, US September CPI , the number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time in the week from October 8 (10,000), the EIA natural gas inventory in the week from October 7 (10,000 cubic feet), the EIA crude oil inventory in the week from October 7 (10,000 barrels), the EIA strategic oil reserve inventory in the week from October 7 (10,000 barrels), the EIA 6 released the monthly short-term energy outlook report, and the IEA announced the monthly crude oil market Report , Mexico Central Bank released minutes of monetary policy meeting;

Friday (October 14): China's September CPI, China's September PPI , China's September trade account (100 million yuan), euro zone's August seasonal adjusted trade account (100 million euro ), US September retail sales , US August commercial inventory, US October Michigan Consumer Confidence Index initial value .

market

A shares: Wind data shows that in addition to the new stocks to be listed, 37 stocks will face lifting the ban next week, with a total lifting of 3.496 billion shares. Based on the latest closing price, the total lifting of ban is 32.975 billion yuan, a decrease of 80.12% from last week.

From the perspective of the unblocked stocks, the amount of unblocked stocks in Ordos , Child King , Yicheng New Energy, Rainbow Shares , and Jingfeng Mingyuan has exceeded 4 billion yuan, and the circulation of Child King, Jingfeng Mingyuan, Chunxue Food, and Xinhan New Materials will increase by more than 100%.

China Central Bank Open Market: The People's Bank of China will have a total of 357 billion reverse repurchases due next week, and 14-day reverse repurchases of 93 billion, 62 billion, 67 billion, 77 billion and 58 billion respectively from the 10th to the 14th.

closed: On Monday, the Taiwan Stock Exchange of China closed for one day due to the "Double Tenth Festival", the Tokyo Stock Exchange of Japan closed for one day due to the Sports Festival, the Seoul Stock Exchange of South Korea closed for one day due to the Agent , and the Toronto Stock Exchange of Canada closed for one day due to the Thanksgiving Day.

Company Financial Report: days ago, Shanghai Stock Exchange disclosed the appointment disclosure timetable for the third quarter report of listed companies in Shanghai. Shangji CNC and Kangyuan Pharmaceutical will first disclose the third quarter report on October 10. , stocks including Cambridge Technology, Huatie Emergency, Sifang Technology, Sanfu Co., Ltd., were also disclosed in advance.

According to Wind statistics, as of September 30, 92 A-share companies have disclosed their performance forecasts for the first three quarters. Among them, 67 companies with positive performance expectations (including expected increase, slight increase, turnover of losses, and continued profit), accounting for more than 70%. Among individual stocks, Yahua Group has the fastest growth rate in the current third-quarter report forecast, with a maximum growth rate of 479.16%. Haiguang Information followed closely behind, with its performance in the first three quarters being the highest year-on-year of 465%. In addition, the performance of individual stocks such as Chiron Co., Ltd. , Tianli Lithium Energy, BGI Intelligent Manufacturing, and Bona Film will also double in the first three quarters.

Important Events

• The 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China was held in Beijing

According to Xinhua News Agency , the Seventh Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was held in Beijing on October 9, 2022. The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee will recommend to the Seventh Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China that the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing on October 16, 2022.

• Domestic refined oil opens a new round of price adjustment window

Comprehensive analysis and forecasts by multiple institutions, the average international crude oil price in this round has dropped slightly compared with the previous round. Considering the exchange rate changes, it is expected that the price adjustment is "strapped" in this round of refined oil price adjustment window. According to the current oil price management Measures , if this price adjustment is "strapped", the unrevised amount will be included in the accumulated or offset during the next price adjustment. As of now this year, domestic refined oil prices have undergone 18 rounds of adjustments, showing a trend of "11 ups, 7 downs, 0 downs," which is stranded.

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