Starting from 2021, the domestic real estate market has shown a trend of " falling in both quantity and price ": on the one hand, the national average housing price in the first quarter of this year was 9,552 yuan/square meter, a decrease of 15% compared with the national average housing price of 11,000 yuan in the first quarter of 2021. On the other hand, the real estate market transaction volume is still at a low level. Data shows that in the first quarter of 2022, the sales area of commercial housing was 310.46 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 13.8%; sales volume was 296.55 billion yuan, a decrease of 22.7%.
In order to get the real estate market out of the sluggish dilemma, some cities are gradually loosening the real estate market. As of April 18, more than 80 cities across the country have joined the team that the real estate market is loosened. There are also many ways to loosen the real estate market, such as relaxing purchase restrictions, reducing down payment ratios, increasing mortgage quotas, relaxing housing purchase conditions, and issuing housing purchase subsidies .
Although various policies have been introduced in various places to loosen the property market, the domestic real estate market is still sluggish and there is no trend of recovery. Nowadays, among the 70 important cities, whether it is new or second-hand housing, more than 70% of the cities with year-on-year decline in housing prices. . On the list of these cities where housing prices are falling, housing prices in northern cities fell particularly significantly.
According to official statistics, as of the end of March, housing prices in 28 cities have fallen back to one year ago. Among them are eight provincial capitals in the north, namely: Taiyuan, Harbin, Shijiazhuang, Changchun, Hohhot, Zhengzhou, Tianjin, Jinan , etc. and some third- and fourth-tier cities have also seen a decline in housing prices, such as Mudanjiang , Jinzhou , Qinhuangdao , Luoyang , etc.
This also fulfills what Wu Xiaoling, the former deputy governor of the Central Bank, said before: "stocks, bonds, foreign exchange, and housing" are the lifeblood of the country's financial resources. Among them, the weakest and most impactful is real estate. She believes that there are not many days to revel in the bubble, and it is a reality that every country and everyone have to face. Judging from the current situation, the decline in housing prices in cities in northern regions is ahead of that in southern cities.
Now the problem is that the "collective" loss of the northern real estate market. What does this mean behind it? First of all, the economic development of southern and northern my country is not balanced. Usually the northern region is relatively conservative, while the economic development pace of southern regions is faster. This has led to the economic development of a few northern cities except Beijing and Tianjin, which has a good economic development, and most of the other northern cities have relatively single industrial structures, which has caused residents in the northern region to flow to southern cities to develop.
For example, Henan Province's population increased by 580,000 in 2021, while Luoyang, the sub-central city of Henan, has only increased its population by 510,000 in the past 10 years. Just imagine, a large number of people in the northern region have come to the south to seek development opportunities, but the population of cities in the northern region is getting smaller and smaller, and local housing demand has shrunk sharply, so it is not difficult to understand that local housing prices have fallen.
Furthermore, the housing market regulation policies implemented by northern cities in my country were very strict, resulting in a significant decline in housing prices in northern cities. As early as 2016, my country began real estate regulation. At that time, many northern cities stipulated that foreigners must have a certificate of paying three-year social security for local customers. From 2017 to 2018, housing prices in northern cities have peaked.
In fact, housing prices in northern cities have fallen from their historical highs, and the current decline is still relatively large. Beijing fell 15.8%, Tianjin fell 21.8%, Shijiazhuang fell 18%, and Zhengzhou fell 13.1%. The housing prices in cities around Beijing third-tier and fourth-tier cities have fallen by more than 50-60%.
Once again, the reason why housing prices in northern cities continue to fall is also related to the impact of the epidemic, the recession of all walks of life, the expectations of people's income growth have declined, and many families have canceled their housing purchase plans. Nowadays, housing prices in many northern cities have become a trend, and people's expectations for income have begun to decline, which has led to a rapid decline in demand for housing purchases, and it is reasonable that housing prices continue to fall.
Finally, northern my country has entered an era of aging and fewer births, and the demand for buying a house is getting less and less. According to data, the elderly population over 65 years old has reached 14% of the local population, and has reached a deeply aging society according to international standards. On the other hand, the young population is getting smaller and smaller, and even the birth rate of newborns in Henan Province fell below 10‰ last year. Among northern cities, the elderly population is increasing, and the number of young people is gradually decreasing, which leads to a continuous decline in demand for home purchases.
Judging from the current situation, urban housing prices in the northern region are still falling sharply, while urban housing prices in the southern region are relatively resistant to declines. House prices in eight northern provincial capital cities have now collectively declined, mainly because the outflow of population in the northern region is greater than that in the outflow, resulting in a sharp drop in demand for housing.
At the same time, the effects of real estate regulation policies in cities in northern regions are emerging in the past few years, and speculation demand for housing speculation has been withdrawn. Of course, due to the impact of the epidemic, many families have also eliminated the demand for buying a house. More importantly, many cities in northern my country are already in an aging society. As a result, local demand for buying houses is getting smaller and smaller, and it is a foregone conclusion that the collective loss of housing prices in northern cities is the downward trend of housing prices in the future cannot be changed.
