I looked at the property market iceberg index of various cities in the past two days and found a very shocking phenomenon: housing prices in large cities in the north generally fell sharply, but small cities were still climbing higher.
This north does not refer to the northeast, Inner Mongolia, and Northwest, but to Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Henan, Shandong and Shanxi, which are originally more promising provinces and cities that are located south of the north.
The so-called big cities are cities or provincial capitals with relatively high GDP in the country. The so-called small cities are not very small cities, because too small prefecture-level cities and counties are not reflected in the iceberg index.
First look at the housing prices of these "big cities":
Then look at the housing prices of several "small cities":
This is really a strange and shocking phenomenon. The housing prices of large cities in the north fell sharply and fell overall, but small cities are full of spring and pointing to the edge. Many national real estate market "experts" describe the plummeting housing prices in large northern cities as the second retreat of northern cities. So what does the counter-trend rise in these small cities mean? Could it be that the north depends on small cities to save it?
Let’s first analyze the reasons behind this different phenomenon.
For the plunge in big cities such as , I think there are several factors that cannot avoid :
1. After 2016, all major cities in the north have issued strict housing market regulation policies. Small cities have not been attracted by the high-level officials due to the fact that housing price fluctuations are not that large, the number of people involved, and the influence in the country are small, and the regulatory policies are relatively loose and even not released.
Second, the northern cities won a wave of house prices soaring from 2016 to 2018. The real estate market is also a market, and houses are also commodities. We must follow the law of rising and falling. At that time, it rose sharply, but now it fell sharply.
3: In recent years, the economy of major northern cities has indeed not been very good, the economic transformation is not going well, and there is a lack of high-income jobs, so it is difficult to form long-term entrusted for rising housing prices. This is also the reason why the southern big cities have already come out of the decline period and the northern big cities are still falling.
So there is a certain reason for the decline in housing prices in these big cities in the north.
Let’s look at small cities. There are also the following reasons for the rise and rise of housing prices in small cities :
1. There is a rotational pattern of housing prices rising. Each round of big rise or big fall always starts from first-tier cities, and then second-tier, third-tier and even small county towns. Maybe housing prices in big cities have fallen for a long time, and housing prices in small cities have not yet reached their peak. Small cities do not have the guiding role of the fuse of strict regulatory policies, and it is difficult to forcefully reverse the housing price trend in the short term.
2 The previous round of shantytown renovation accelerated the rise in housing prices in small cities. shantytown renovation artificially created vacant land, demand for house purchases, and funds for house purchases. However, the shantytown renovation has basically stopped now.
3: Local governments in small cities have a strong desire to support and rescue the market, and many small cities have even issued notices prohibiting developers from reducing prices. Developers and home buyers are also boasting about the "news" of rising housing prices in advertisements and family matters, luring unbuyers to take the bait.
To sum up, it makes sense that housing prices in these northern big cities have fallen, and there are reasons for small cities to rise.
can be reversed, and bad things come. I think Today in the northern big cities is the tomorrow of small cities, and today in small cities is also the tomorrow of big cities. The difference is that housing prices in big cities will fluctuate in the future, and small cities may "get stuck" in .
The "big cities" listed above either rank high in economic terms or are provincial capitals, with rich resources in economy, politics, education, science, culture and health, and a vast population hinterland.
In the environment where the country increases urbanization rate and builds central cities and urban agglomerations, the future of these big cities is still worth looking forward to. Funds and population will accelerate their transfer to these cities in the future, which is enough to support the rise in housing prices in these cities.
small cities are different, small cities have no wealth but have the disease of wealth .
We just need to think about it. Under this market, housing prices in big cities continue to fall, and housing prices in small cities continue to rise. One day, even now, the phenomenon of "house prices in small cities remain the same as those in big cities or slightly higher" has occurred. So are citizens of these small cities willing to buy houses in small cities or go to big cities?
The answer is clear at a glance. I am in Qingdao , and I already have many visionary Rizhao . My friends from Linyi come to Qingdao to buy a house.
itself can't retain population due to lack of work. The current rise in housing prices has accelerated the transfer of population and funds in small cities to big cities in disguise. It can be said that the rise in housing prices in small cities of is a failure to make a living and the gain is not worth the loss!
Shandong and Jiangsu people once mocked Chengdu and Wuhan for their blood-sucking in central and western cities such as Chengdu and Wuhan for their balanced development. Now Shandong and Jiangsu can only recognize the "sightedness" of the development model of Chengdu and Wuhan, and thus increase the first-rate level of Jinan and Nanjing.
Since the development of central cities and urban agglomerations has reached a consensus and has been recognized by senior management, the future of small cities has been confirmed. Not to mention that housing prices in remote small cities such as Hegang and Yumen are worthless, but it is inevitable to experience a bloody storm. The current delay in shantytown renovation has directly accelerated the arrival of this consequence.
I know many national real estate celebrities. Everyone is very unanimous in their belief that housing prices in small cities will plummet sooner or later, but the time is uncertain. Maybe a fuse will suddenly fall sharply, or it may be a slow drop in a frog like boiling in warm water.
So, in the above iceberg index, although housing prices in the northern big cities have all fallen, the prospects are worth promising; although small cities are looking great now, they are the most scary. The most tormenting is the most tormenting .
Therefore, I have always advised people to invest limited funds in cities with dual economic and population growth and high political levels, so that your family property can maintain value or even appreciate.
If the worst result occurs, your houses in these big cities will not retain their value, but your family will be transferred to big cities as your house is transferred to big cities, and your children will enjoy the supporting facilities of big cities a year earlier.
Since the urbanization of the center is unstoppable, if your generation does not come to big cities, your descendants will always have a generation to come to . You should know that the more you go to big cities, the greater the price you pay. When you come, your descendants can put in less effort. When you mention it, you will sincerely praise you: This is the most conscientious ancestor in our family!
This article comes from the WeChat public account: Qingchengshan Said
