National Day holiday is about to pass, and this year's real estate market can be described as dismal. According to data, from January to September 2022, the average sales of the top 100 real estate companies was only 54 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 45.1%. Among them, there are only 15 real estate companies with sales of more than 100 billion yuan, which is a significant decrease compared with the same period last year. At the same time, the second-hand housing market is not optimistic, with 13 cities with listings reaching 100,000 units. These include Chongqing, Tianjin, Hangzhou, Guangzhou, Chengdu, Zhengzhou, Wuhan and other key cities in China.
At the same time, more and more cities have adjusted their housing prices. In addition to the decline in housing prices in third- and fourth-tier cities such as Mudanjiang , Beihai , Anqing , Langfang , Jinzhou , Rizhao , there are also provincial capital cities such as Taiyuan, Harbin, Shijiazhuang, Changchun, Hohhot, Zhengzhou, Tianjin, and Jinan. In this regard, some real estate experts bluntly said: From October, the housing price trend will gradually become clear, and the real estate market may usher in a "depreciation wave". Everyone should be mentally prepared.
Why is it said that from October, the property market may usher in a "depreciation wave"? There are four major signals: First, the trend of real estate market adjustment has been formed and cannot be changed. Domestic housing prices have risen sharply for more than 20 years and have hardly experienced decent adjustments before. Since the second half of last year, due to the continued fermentation of real estate regulation policies, the adjustment trend of the domestic real estate market has become very obvious. Like the stock market, once a trend is formed, it cannot be reversed. In the future, more and more cities in China will join the "depreciation" of housing prices.
Second, domestic residents' demand for buying houses is becoming saturated. House prices in my country have risen for more than 20 consecutive years. Families who should buy houses have long bought houses. Faced with high housing prices, families who cannot afford to buy houses cannot afford to buy houses no matter what. According to data, 96% of domestic residents own one house, while 41.5% of households own two properties account for. Real estate accounts for 77% of domestic household assets, and only 23% of assets are financial assets, which also shows that domestic residents have bet on real estate, and the subsequent demand for buying houses will become weaker and weaker.
Third, people's willingness to invest in real estate has dropped rapidly, and there is no suspense that there will be a "depreciation wave" in the future real estate market. On the one hand, as the real estate market has entered an adjustment cycle and has gradually lost the money-making effect, a lot of demand for housing speculation has begun to withdraw, and the transaction volume of the real estate market has shrunk rapidly.
On the other hand, due to the repeated impact of the epidemic this year, all industries have been affected. Many people have lowered their income growth expectations and also stopped their home purchase plans. Moreover, in the next 2-3 years, the epidemic will not end soon, so now, people are saving more than spending and investing.
4. Local governments have been accelerating the construction of affordable housing in recent years. In the future, a large number of low-rent housing, public rental housing, shared-ownership housing, , etc. will be introduced to the market, which will have a diversion effect on the demand in the commercial housing market. Nowadays, fresh graduates and migrant workers can apply for low-rent housing and public rental housing, while local middle- and low-income groups can apply for shared-ownership housing. As the so-called shared property rights house, half of the property belongs to individuals and half of the property belongs to the government or real estate companies. In this way, the cost of buying a house for middle- and low-income groups will drop significantly, and the demand in the commercial housing market will also be diverted.
Now the trend of domestic real estate has become clear. From October, the real estate market may usher in a "depreciation wave". There are four major signals that have emerged: ① The trend of adjustment in the domestic real estate market has been formed and cannot be reversed; ② The demand for the real estate market has become saturated and houses have become seriously oversupply; ③ The demand for residents to invest in and buy houses has dropped rapidly; ④ All localities are accelerating the construction of affordable housing, and a large number of low-rent housing, shared-ownership housing, etc. are introduced to the market every year, and the demand for the commercial housing market is diverted. Therefore, it is recommended that investors buy houses be cautious when buying houses within two years this year and next.
