What will happen to the housing prices in the next two years? Will it continue to fall or rebound? These two trends are the answer
Since 2021, the entire property market has started a downward pattern, and the changes in the property market are still sluggish. From 2022 to now, housing prices in more than 100 cities fell last year, and housing prices in many cities fell directly below 10,000 yuan. If the real estate market continues to develop like this, it is really not difficult to buy a house with a rudimentary need.
In addition, according to data from Juyi Research Institute, the average domestic commercial housing transaction price has begun to fall in 2022, with a year-on-year decline of more than 1%, which is the lowest level in the past 20 years. At the same time, , the Academy of Social Sciences, , has also made further predictions about the real estate market. China Housing Development Report (2021-2022) shows that the national average price will increase between 3% and -3% in 2022, and the sales area will increase by 1% to 5%. From this we can see that the turning point in the real estate market is coming soon and the downward trend of the real estate market cannot be changed in the short term.
So what will happen to the real estate market? In fact, Cao Dewang once said that a house is just a pair of cement and bricks, and cannot produce any value. It is actually not worth selling it to a home buyer at such a high price. Therefore, in order to maintain the healthy and sustainable development of the economy, the property market will inevitably be regulated, but in the short term, it will have certain harm to the economy. Simply put, real estate will no longer be a pillar industry in the future, and the real economy is the foundation of economic development. Judging from the recent years of development, the over-cross-distance development of real estate has caused many problems.
1. Excessive Land finance income. This disadvantage is very simple, that is, it depends on low-income. When the real estate market is in a downturn, it will lead to many problems, such as a decrease in fiscal revenue, which will affect economic development.
Second, residents' debt is too high and the property market is overly surplus. Currently, 80% of residents' debt comes from mortgage loans, and many people do not lack houses, and the average person has reached 1.5 units. In the future, land finance and household assets are guaranteed, and housing prices can only rise, which can maintain balance. If housing prices fall, this will lead to depreciation of real estate.
How much housing prices can fall? This is a question that cannot be ignored. If housing prices fall too quickly, there will be certain risks. So will my country's real estate market make a tough landing? In fact, these two points have given the answer long ago.
1. The housing price tolerance for buying a house.
For the real estate market, whether development is a biological factor, the housing price-to-income ratio is an important indicator for measurement, which reflects the affordability of home buyers. In 2021, the national residential housing price-to-income ratio is 9.1. It takes 9 years for one person to buy a house. This is the average data. However, in cities such as Shanghai, Beijing, and Shenzhen, some income has exceeded 16 times, and some cities even exceed 20, which is too exaggerated.
2, sales volume of the real estate market
In 2022, the national real estate market sales peaked, exceeding 20 trillion yuan, but in 2022, as of July, the national new home sales cycle has reached 19.01 months, and some third- and fourth-tier cities have achieved sales cycle of up to 22.4 months, which has been higher than 12 months. In addition, some cities have longer sales cycles, especially in northern cities, some of which have exceeded 50 months, such as , Yantai , Harbin, etc. These directly lead to a decline in real estate sales and an increase in corporate risks. According to the three red lines policy issued in 2021, there are only 34 key real estate companies in the country, and there are only 10 companies with the green lines. If this situation cannot be changed in the future, more and more things will happen if the postponement of house delivery and suspension of work will occur.
Therefore, at present, both real estate companies and home buyers are actually under great pressure. Coupled with the impact of the epidemic, the market is in a recession, oversupply of houses, etc., price reduction and promotion are inevitable. But the most serious problem at present is that if the real estate market hits hard, it will not only impact developers, but also affect upstream and downstream enterprises. In severe cases, it will lead to a large number of unemployment problems. As for financial institutions, it will inevitably lead to various risks, and in severe cases, it will lead to loan cuts. For example, there was a problem of forced loan suspension before.
But in the opinion of MiDong, the chance of a rebound in the future of the property market is very low.Judging from the data in July, the average price of second-hand houses in 65 cities is 16,841 yuan per square meter, while the price in the West is 9,691 yuan per square meter. It seems that the price of has bottomed out before . With the occurrence of surplus, housing prices will continue to decline in the future, and there is little hope for a rebound. In addition, now that houses are oversupply, real estate speculators have begun to sell their houses gradually, and there is no concept of real estate speculation, so there will be no rebound.
So what should I do for home buyers? One word, etc. Waiting for the real estate market to be reactivated, the suspension of work will be restarted.
If you have any questions or questions about the future development of the real estate market, the rise and fall of housing prices, you can leave a message to discuss it.
