this year
Since 2022, the national commercial housing sales and sales area have also continued to decline, and the decline has continued to expand.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics
Look at land sales revenue again: Data from the Ministry of Finance shows that the national land transfer revenue in the first eight months was 3370.4 billion yuan, down 28.5% from the same period last year.
Source: Ministry of Finance official website
Land sales income is the main wallet for both the central and local governments, especially cities with low levels and relatively weak industries. Land finance has a very high dependence on.
Whether from the data, whether it is the residential transaction volume or the land transaction volume, or from reality, China's real estate economy has ushered in a continuous and obvious pullback in all aspects in 2022. On the surface, this kind of pullback seems to only affect the real estate market and the industry, but in fact it has a greater impact on China's economy.
Of course, this requires a certain economic cognitive pattern. We cannot expect that the group that expects housing prices to plummet, their anger is overwhelming, and they still dream of getting a bargain for nothing.
The reality is like this. In terms of asset value and economic stability, reality and imagination can never fit.
China's real estate has become a negative drag on China's economy in 2022, so the country's attitude is crucial.
may be to make a comeback in the fourth quarter, or to make the real estate market turn in October. In the 24-hour period, two days before the holiday, there are four departments in China: Central Bank , China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission , the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation jointly launched three measures to support the bottom-up market with great influence and extraordinary significance.
Not only that, as a southeastern coastal economic capital of China's national economic top student, it also made important adjustments in the credit field involving real estate before the National Day.
This article will be based on a review of a series of favorable policies and attitude expressions issued continuously by the national level within 24 hours before the National Day holiday. Together with all readers, through reviewing the policy dynamics, through appearances, there is depth, attitude and professional chat, how will the Chinese real estate market develop in the fourth quarter?
, as the most basic and ordinary individual, how should
, combine it with itself, understand the current real environment of China's real estate market and real estate economy, and guide its own actions and decisions?
Extraordinary period, extraordinary environment, Panda's professionalism in the real estate field is trustworthy.
This article has repeatedly checked the compliance, does not touch the red line, the language is peaceful and fair, and it is not value-oriented. The content of
is well-founded and analyzed rationally and objectively.
hardcore content, no longer missing.
is good at seeing the microscope, insight into opportunities, grasp trends, and guide decisions.
PS:
- article is a little long, and reading the content requires a certain amount of time and patience, and it requires thinking.
- content does not require pleasing all readers, and writing sharing is also a process of mutual selection between reading groups and writing groups.
- Everyone has different cognitive levels and do not force it. The content of this article is not a big deal, nor is it a cool article that can bring relaxed, pleasant and spiritual satisfaction after reading it. Please look at it rationally based on your own needs and cognitive needs.
- headline exclusive article, plagiarism and transportation will be prosecuted!
(If this article is seen on other information platforms, there is no need to doubt it is just plagiarism and transportation, shameless)
Choice is greater than effort, thinking determines the level, which is an important rule in any era and any environment.
Image source: Toutiao Gallery
1
Review: Within 24 hours before the holiday, China's four-fold positive signals of the real estate market came one after another
In fact, since yesterday, I have been following the policy trends continuously and published two articles of analysis of positive policies on the real estate market. I will not elaborate or repeat them here. I will only sort out and review the event to help more friends understand. In the short 24 hours before the official arrival of the National Day, what important positive signals were released:
First: On September 29, the People's Bank of China and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission allowed local governments to temporarily lower the interest rate limit for the first home.
City governments that meet the conditions can independently decide to maintain, lower or cancel the local newly issued first-home housing loan before the end of 2022.
In one sentence, local governments can independently decide on mortgage interest rates. In other words, the minimum interest rate can exceed the current 4.1%!
Image source: see the picture
The second, on the afternoon of September 30, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation issued and announced the phased policies for personal tax refund preferential policies for the purchase of commercial housing.
Image source: see picture
The third one, the provident fund interest rate has also been lowered:
Central Bank official website September 30, pay attention to the time, it is the night of abnormal working hours, an interest rate adjustment news was announced, People's Bank of China decided to lower the interest rate of the first personal housing provident fund loan from October 1, 2022, and the interest rates below 5 years (including 5 years) and above 5 years are adjusted to 2.6% and 3.1% respectively. The interest rate policy for the second set of personal housing provident fund loans remains unchanged, that is, the interest rates for less than 5 years (including 5 years) and more than 5 years shall not be less than 3.025% and 3.575% respectively.
Image source: see the picture
The fourth one, this trend may be somewhat controversial, but it is quite interesting at this important National Day node.
suggests that everyone look at this trend with a rational and rigorous attitude:
On the evening of September 30, a screenshot of the document "Resolution on Adjusting Real Estate Credit Policy under the Jurisdiction" printed with the rise of "Guangdong Market Interest Rate Pricing Self-Discipline Mechanism" is widely circulated on the Internet.
mentioned that from October 1, 2022, prefecture-level cities under their jurisdiction (except Guangzhou) can implement the "recognition of houses but not loans" policy of first and second commercial housing in accordance with the demands of local governments, as well as information on the down payment and interest rate adjustment of first-home housing in some prefecture-level cities.
Because of controversy, the screenshots of the relevant files here will not be displayed to avoid misunderstandings. However, judging from the files circulating on the Internet, it is quite similar. The news of
has a follow-up to refute the rumors. At present, the trend still needs further observation, waiting for a more credible tone: the relevant person in charge of the authoritative department of
told the relevant media that it has been confirmed to the relevant business departments that this is false information, and all parties are advised not to spread it or believe it.
has no tone and no discussion meaning, but this is quite subtle meaning on this sensitive node.
is extraordinary, be more rigorous.
several positive news, detailed review, clear at a glance, the main line and logic are also very clear: openly supports rigid and improved housing needs at the national level.
Image source: Toutiao Library
2
1 Before October, can this round of intensive "combination punches" of policy-intensiveness be realized that China's real estate market has entered the track of recovery?
Before the National Day Golden Week, the real estate market had positive and positive signals one after another.
intensive policy combinations followed one after another and were introduced on the eve of National Day, which is a very important trend signal.
But the essence and main line are actually the most worthy of seeing and grasping.
Judging from the content of several policies, the country's subjective intention is to reduce the cost of buying a house for urgent needs and support improvement needs.
Overall, the central bank, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the Ministry of Finance, and the State Administration of Taxation have three major moves in two days, all of which are to reduce the cost of buying a house and try to boost the property market.
Going further, the ultimate goal of to boost the property market is to boost the economy.
After all, there is only the last quarter left in 2022, and the National Day Day in October and the 20th annual important meeting are about to be held. Whether from reality or from reality, the recovery and stabilization of fundamentals can be achieved in the short term. The real estate economy is undoubtedly the most reliable choice, no matter what.
Since 2022, due to the complex international environment and the spread of domestic epidemics, consumption has declined and manufacturing has been trapped, and all walks of life have been affected to varying degrees in China's domestic economic environment.
Under this general background, coupled with the sluggish and recession of the real estate economy and the real estate market, this has brought great challenges and pressure to the country's demand to achieve the economic plan goals clearly defined at the beginning of the year and to maintain stable economic fundamentals at the national level.
Perhaps the following conclusion will make many people unacceptable, but from the perspective of respecting reality and paying attention to cause and effect, we must face it:
Stabilizing the real estate market and housing prices is an important foundation for achieving the stability of the fundamentals of China's economy in the current situation.
So, you can see that even though the country has already expressed obvious warming and relaxed attitudes at the policy level, it has not changed its attitudes at all on the restrictions and control of assets and financial attributes in the real estate and real estate markets.
The current real problem is:
An asset market that has been relying on the money-making effect and financial attributes for many years to achieve prosperity. Return to the demand level and relying solely on the real needs of the self-use and improvement group, can it be stable?
This is a delicate balance test, and local governments and competent departments are actually the same as those in the minds of Mingjing.
The term "housing for living, not for speculation" is repeated all the time, so the essence of this balanced game and management test will not change.
On the surface, it is the country that has opened a window for favorable policies. In fact, this is a deep-level game and mutual testing between policies and markets.
See clearly what the country wants is stability, rather than recreating the false prosperity driven by the financial past.
As long as you see the above logical analysis clearly, you can rationally foresee that before China's real estate market has not reached "stable", or that the state and management departments believe that the power of policies will continue to be exerted, and more updated and more powerful means and strategies will continue to appear until the "management goals" are achieved.
This is the underlying logic of China's economy in policy management.
From this perspective, there is no so-called recovery in China's real estate market, especially the prosperity that many people think is reappearing, prices and volumes rise, and hot transactions. As long as the real estate market and real estate industry reach an ideal state that does not drag down China's economic situation and does not affect the fundamentals of the economy, it actually meets the country's demand for the real estate market.
This round, including a long time in the future, China's real estate market may need to be analyzed with new logic and cognition.
Image source: Toutiao Gallery
3
Trend Outlook: What are the possible certain directions of the Chinese real estate market in the fourth quarter of 2022 and in the further future?
Based on the above in-depth discussion and analysis, it actually returns to reality. Based on policy intentions and economic demand, China's real estate market has some definite trends that can be predicted in the fourth quarter of 2022 and in the further medium and long term.
1, to see the core positioning of China's real estate in the future, that is, to divest financial attributes and money-making effects. In addition to the limited number of core front-line and top populations flowing into big cities, with the support of location and school districts, there are further asset appreciation performance. Most houses will return to their residential attributes and serve the real needs of use.
2, the credit expansion role of real estate and real estate markets will continue to decrease, and correspondingly, land finance will gradually launch the stage of the times.
3, operating assets attributes and corresponding income will gradually replace land transfer income and become the source of local income for most cities in the future.
4. The mainstream view and public opinion believe that the plummeting housing prices will not occur. Instead, it is a long adjustment process for prices to return to value. There are great variables in this process, that is, the difference in the ability of local governments to economic construction and industrial development. A process like
may be a decline or a slow growth.
In the era of global game, Matthew effect will magnify exponentially.
5, for China, in the future, real estate will still be an important asset carrier for solidifying family wealth, but the liquidity has a poor significance, only the significance of financial mortgage and asset appraisal.
may not be easy for many people to understand. To put it simply, it is price spread arbitrage and asset appreciation. This kind of money-making effect of making money easily will no longer exist. However, if capital turnover is required and large amounts of funds are transferred, real estate will still be the most recognized asset target by banks.
is not just China, but in fact all countries and economies, especially developed economies, are in this trend.
China's real estate value dividend cycle has ended. No matter who it is, what value-added value is used, and the logic of potential is to look at China's real estate economy, that is, it is to be prevalent.
Image source: Toutiao Gallery
at the end:
Use keyword thinking to share some personal judgment views and opinions on the subsequent real estate market, real estate, real estate economy
0 The article ends, talk about some personal views and opinions based on current policies and market reality, which is not necessarily correct. Just use it as a brick to attract jade for readers and friends to discuss and refer to:
1. Since 2022, China's real estate market has actually been in a real environment that lacks confidence and expectations. Of course, there is a mainstream view that housing prices must be lowered so that more people can afford to solve the problem.
In fact, the existence of this view is also a hype mentality, or the mentality of wanting to get a bargain.
chapters are not good, but please read them carefully.
Before the National Day, the policy trend of reducing the transaction costs of in actually has a hidden line, that is, the protection of real estate value.
process governments can make no money, real estate companies can also maintain capital and small profits, and even banks have to give in.
However, based on the logic driven by debt, preservation of assets, or relatively stable assets, is a more important direction of confidence. The balance of
is very sensitive, but it is very important: the past cost cannot be used as a cost for the immediate increment. Individual desires and considerations will not consider systemic risks.
No one wants to suffer losses, no one wants to get a bargain, no one takes this loss, then isn’t the economy a dead end?
So, try to stay away from extreme thinking so that you can see the reality clearly.
2, don’t talk about the macro, just the micro, the dividend window opened by the policy within a time limit is beneficial to the real residential demand groups and improvement groups. Don’t miss this dividend window period, because once the dividend stage ends and turns, the corresponding costs cannot be returned.
If you are optimistic about the future of China's economy, optimistic about China's development potential, and optimistic about the value of your city, then you will not be wrong when listening to the country now.
What is more realistic is that there are actually not many such cities. In most cities, from the perspective of value, the value of houses is still full of dangerous price bubbles.
3. If you are not sure, or have concerns, there is a three-month window for October-December. But it is certain that by 2023, regardless of whether the policy shifts, based on the global economic pattern cycle, as well as the adjustment of the domestic economic structure, coupled with the consideration of the epidemic, a new round of asset and economic shocks and pressure will come, and there are many variables, so whether you should buy or not, please see the following lines:
Everything starts from real demand, you can buy or not, you can invest or not, you can invest or not, you must face the demand, follow the demand, respect the demand, and buy.
People who really have the need to travel and commute will not care about the depreciation of the car and the rise and fall of gasoline when buying a car.
The right way is to look at policy dividends rationally with the mentality of demand consumption.
Finally, I would like to remind you that the policies are favorable and the market is stimulating. You cannot ignore risks. Stay away from pre-sale houses and only buy existing houses. This view is not easy for anyone to fool you. If you don’t say anything else, I am a practitioner in the real estate industry. I buy a house myself, only buy existing houses.
is convincing enough, right? Please don't argue, it's really money-making, don't joke.
or above is a special review, interpretation and analysis of several major policies and trend signals of China's real estate market before the National Day, and share with all readers.
Last wish: During the National Day holiday, all readers and friends will have a happy holiday and good health.
Image source: Toutiao Picture Library
(According to the latest regulations of relevant national departments, the content and opinions of this article are for reference only and do not constitute any clear suggestions on property purchase, investment, etc., and you can bear the risk of entering the market at your own risk.) The text above
from @Panda Beibei Little Cute
Is it good to have a young friend who dares to tell the truth, can tell the truth, and is good at observing?
original writing sharing is not easy. If you think the article is good, please forward and like it. Follow me for the original strength of
, and the headlines are exclusive. If there is any plagiarism, transportation and infringement, it will be prosecuted!
If you have any questions, please leave a message. If you don’t, just send a private message. For civilized communication, you will be answered questions and thank you.
