Houses or real estate are of far-reaching significance in China. The meaning and value attached to it is not only the inherent attributes of the house, but also includes financial attributes and social attributes today.
Residence attributes are simple, literally meaningful , including the propaganda policy of our country that houses are for living, not for speculation.
This sentence also reveals the financial attributes of houses in my country, which attaches great value to them and is not easy to depreciate.
The amount of houses also shows the wealth to a certain extent. , especially a small attic inch in first-tier cities, may be many times higher than a large house that is hundreds of square meters in third- and fourth-tier cities.
This also reveals that an important factor affecting housing prices is location, or regional factors.
adds social attributes to housing prices at the level of regional factors, and includes employment, medical care, education, pension social security, etc.
In fact, this phenomenon is not only common in China, but also in other countries. Although the productivity of today's society is developed, has not reached the level of Datong society, which can ensure that every region can enjoy the same resources.
Therefore, a considerable number of high-quality resources, , such as education and medical care, will be concentrated in the main key planning cities.
From the property of the house, we can also see some factors affecting housing prices.
Factors affecting housing prices
First of all, the regional factors mentioned just now. The local prices, income and purchasing power are different in different regions, and the pricing of a house will refer to the local income level to a certain extent.
Secondly, the local economic conditions, fiscal levels, land prices and various interest rates of banks will all directly affect the fluctuations in housing prices.
The level of land auction price is the basic element that determines the pricing of the property.
The third is the local real estate market. For a long time, the real estate market in my country has been quite hot. Basically, as a trading product, as long as you buy at a low price, you can wait until the high level to sell and earn profits.
If the real estate market in a region is bullish, , investors and consumers will actively join the market.
On the contrary, if the real estate market in a region is neglected, consumers choose to hold their coins and wait and see. The longer they wait, the greater the pressure on investors' financial pressure. The more likely the financial chain of real estate companies is to break , and the more likely the houses in their hands are to explode.
The factors that affect the real estate market in a region, excluding the reasons such as financial and economic policies, a major factor is consumption demand.
Where does consumer demand come from?
Population is the top priority of real estate in the future. This also reveals a very cruel fact that for cities where net population outflows have increased year by year, if does not have other means, the value of real estate will be difficult to preserve.
According to the news on December 16, 2021, the top ten cities with net population inflows in the year, including Shenzhen, Shanghai and Guangzhou. Beijing, Dongguan , and Chengdu followed closely behind, and housing prices in these cities have remained high all year round.
As of May 2022, will take the Dongcheng Street and Songshan Lake areas in Dongguan urban area as examples.
Among them, Dongcheng Street, the average price of newly built commercial housing is 51,030 yuan/square meter, while the average price of second-hand housing is 23,785 yuan/square meter.
Songshan Lake area takes Shipai Town as an example, among which the average price of newly built commercial housing is 17,439 yuan/square meter, and the average price of second-hand housing is 13,490 yuan/square meter.
As the largest city in , the three northeastern provinces, Harbin, the original urban population of reached tens of millions of , and the permanent population fell to 9.885 million by the end of 2021.
As of June 2022, the average price of housing in Harbin will be 10,287 yuan/square meter as an example, and Acheng District is 5,833 yuan/square meter.
Here we compare the housing prices in the two regions of Dongguan and Harbin. It may not be appropriate. is because the two have different economic sizes and different regions.
Here is just a simple argument for the importance of housing prices and population factors that affect a region.
The rescue policies of various regions
In fact, various regions have great economic dependence on the real estate industry. Many of the GDP each year are contributed by the real estate industry.
. According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on February 24, 2021, the added value of the real estate industry in 2020 was 7.45 trillion yuan, and the contribution rate of to the national economy of was 7.34%.
involves 57 related industries, and land revenue accounts for more than 80% of local finance in 2020.
Since the end of 2021, the real estate industry in various places has fallen into a downturn. By this year, many regions have not seen any improvement. has frequently introduced policies to rescue the market.
Take Fuzhou City, Fujian Province as an example. On June 8, 2022, the Fuzhou Municipal Government has issued an action plan with the theme of stabilizing growth and market stability, and clearly put forward a one-strategic risk solution.
June 10th Minhou County issued a notice that purchases commercial housing locally and receives a single person of 10,000 to 30,000 yuan in cash, , and college graduates can also enjoy the superimposed housing purchase subsidy policy.
In addition, in terms of mortgage interest rates, also has policy support, and the minimum can be achieved 4.25% .
For fifth-tier cities like Minhou County, buying a house is both subsidized and rewarded and policy . Such a measure is not hard to put in effort.
, which also indicates that future housing prices, between similar cities, may exceed many people's imagination, especially investors in these supermarkets.
, and the famous economist Ren Zeping , he once wrote a book called "Global Real Estate", which analyzes China's real estate.
There are several views that are very intriguing. . First, the demand for improvement of housing has increased, second, the margin of leverage and safety of residents is high, and third, the inventory of urban housing.
The description of inventory is only intercepted by the data from 2017. In the past few years, it has lagged quite behind. However, it has to be said that before that, his future housing price predictions of domestic housing prices have been analyzed from three dimensions, corresponding to population and land finance. I personally agree with this view.
From this perspective, in the future housing prices, especially in fourth- and fifth-tier cities with outflows of population, compared with those with net population inflows, housing prices will show a huge polarization, especially in cities with relatively high housing prices and incomes.
This may be very different from the results people expected at the time. As for housing prices in big cities, after all, scarcity is the most expensive, and there are only so many resources, which seems difficult to decline in the short term.
I don’t know what you think about the housing prices in future cities. Welcome to leave a message in the comment area.
