htmlOn August 27, Hualan Bio (002007.SZ) flashed in the afternoon and hit the limit , with a transaction volume of 1.071 billion yuan throughout the day, at 32.05 yuan per share, and the total market value fell to 58.47 billion yuan, and has a cumulative decline of 36% since the high point in early February this year. Some industry insiders analyzed that the company's stock price performance may be related to the "Shandong Province 2021-2022 Influenza Vaccine Centralized Volume Negotiable Procurement Document" (hereinafter referred to as "Volume Procurement Document") released by the Shandong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention on August 20. The "Volume Procurement Document" stated that influenza vaccines will be purchased in volume centralized. Hualan Bio currently accounts for the main market share of influenza vaccines in my country, with a total issuance accounted for 41.77% in 2020. The market is worried that centralized procurement will have an impact on the terminal price of the vaccine.
Yinshi Finance reporter checked China Government Procurement Network data. Beijing will purchase Hualan quadrivalent influenza vaccine with volume in 2020. The unit price per unit of Beijing is 60 yuan. Some industry insiders pointed out that this price is about 53% lower than the price of the second-class seedling channel at 128 yuan.
According to the "Volume Procurement Document", the products participating in the centralized procurement include influenza virus cleavage vaccine, quadrivalent influenza virus cleavage vaccine, freeze-dried nasal spray influenza live attenuated vaccine, and other varieties. The manufacturers include Sinovac , Guoguang Biology, Yalifeng Biology, Hualan Biology, etc.
However, some analysts pointed out that government procurement reduces sales expenses in circulation (industry average of 30%-40%), which actually has a very limited impact on corporate profits. At present, the penetration rate of influenza vaccine in China is relatively low. If the energy is exchanged for price through centralized procurement, it may be beneficial to the industry.
Dongxing Securities pointed out that this purchase is different from previous influenza vaccine purchases. This time, it clearly stated that the government invested free influenza vaccines to be vaccinated. It is judged that the payment side is still vaccinated, and there is no strong incentive for disease control to suppress prices. In addition, the procurement announcement shows that the price is not higher than the current online settlement price, and the purchase price upper limit is set. Assuming that the price is 25%~30% lower than before, referring to the sales expense rate of the influenza leader 35% , the overall profit margin of the vaccine will increase.
However, with the emergence of centralized procurement of influenza vaccines in various places, the risk of a single variety of Hualan Biotech still exists.
2018 to 2020 Hualan Biological Annual Report shows that the proportion of the company's batch issuance of influenza vaccines accounts for 52.77%, 42.02% and 40.16% of the domestic influenza vaccine market, respectively. The company's quadrivalent influenza virus lysis vaccine batch issuance of 100%, 86.10% and 61.41% of the domestic quadrivalent influenza virus lysis vaccine market, respectively. In terms of proportion, the volume of influenza vaccines issuance and market share have declined, and the company faces the risk of market share shrinking due to the single product structure.
According to the evening Hualan Biologics Dragon and Tiger List , Shenzhen Stock Connect is located at the same time, selling 48.8163 million yuan, and buying 64.4564 million yuan. There are institutional seats in the three positions, selling 15.5387 million yuan.
