Just entered September, typhoons "Lingling", " Swordfish ", and " Faqian " were finished, opening the curtain for the autumn typhoon. At present, the autumn typhoon "Lingling" has been strengthened to a super typhoon level, heading north all the way, and will "join" with cold air to create a wave of heavy rainfall in the northeastern region of my country, which may break the local precipitation record in September. So, how effective is the "combat power" of this autumn typhoon? What are the characteristics of autumn typhoons? China Weather Network will give you a detailed answer.
Note: Generally, the typhoons generated from June to August are called "summer typhoons", and the typhoons generated from September to November are called "autumn typhoons".
Autumn typhoons join forces with cold air to create strong wind and rain
According to the forecast, since typhoon "Lingling" will be combined with cold air in the Northeast during the journey northward, it is expected that this weekend (7th to 8th), the Northeast will usher in strong winds and rains, with heavy rainstorms in some areas, and gusts of level 6 to 9 in the central and eastern regions of Heijilia and Liaoning provinces, and gusts of level 10 in some areas, so you need to pay attention to prevention.
According to Central Meteorological Observatory , at 14:00 this year, the center of Typhoon 13th this year "Lingling" is located on the sea surface about 285 kilometers southeast of the east and south of Zhoushan City, Zhejiang Province. The maximum wind force near the center is 16th level (52 meters/second).
It is expected that "Lingling" will move northward at a speed of 30 to 35 kilometers per hour, with little change in intensity. It will enter the southern sea surface of Yellow Sea on the night of the 6th, with significantly weakening of intensity. It will land along the coast of western North Korea to the southeastern part of Liaoning Province in my country from the night of the 7th to the early morning of the 8th (strong tropical storm level, 10 to 11, 25 to 30 meters/second), and then move into the northeastern region of my country and gradually degenerate into temperate cyclones.
is affected by "Lingling", and the winds in East China Sea , Yellow Sea, East China and Northeast China.
It is expected that from the 6th to the 8th, there will be strong winds of 8 to 11 levels on the ocean east of Taiwan, the waters near the Diaoyu Islands in my country, most of the East China Sea, and the central and southern Yellow Sea. The winds of the nearby waters passing by the center of "Lingling" can reach level 12 to 16, and the gusts of 17 or above;
Zhejiang coast, Hangzhou Bay , Yangtze River Estuary, Shanghai coast, Jiangsu coast, Shandong coast, etc. will have strong winds of 6 to 7 levels, and gusts of 8 to 9 levels.
In addition, from the 7th to the 8th, there will be gusts of level 6 to 9 in the central and eastern regions of Liaoning, Jilin and Heilongjiang provinces, and gusts of some areas can reach level 10.
The three northeastern provinces and The Shandong Peninsula will also have heavy rainfall. It is expected that from the 7th to the 8th, there will be heavy to torrential rain in eastern Liaoning, central and eastern Jilin, central and eastern Heilongjiang and eastern Shandong Peninsula, and there will be heavy torrential rain in some areas, with a maximum hourly rainfall of 30 to 50 mm; the cumulative rainfall in the above areas is 40 to 100 mm, and locally 120 to 160 mm.
However, there are still variables in the path of the typhoon in the northeast. If there is a slight change, the area of heavy rainfall will also change greatly. Therefore, you still need to pay more attention to when approaching.
China Weather Network meteorological analyst Shao Peng introduced that "Lingling" and cold air "joining" to create strong winds and rains is a prominent feature of autumn typhoons. Because the cold air is active in autumn, it can stimulate stronger precipitation once combined with typhoons. With the "accomplice" of cold air, it will often cause greater disasters.
is not just Typhoon "Lingling", the No. 13 Super Typhoon "Catfish" in 2010 is also a typical case. The "catfish" was generated in October, and it was stimulated by the cold air from the north to the south. In addition, the terrain uplift of the central mountain range of Taiwan caused more than 1,000 mm of precipitation in Suao, Yilan, eastern Taiwan, and the collapse of the Suhua Highway of , resulting in a tragedy of 26 deaths. There is also the typhoon "Fett" in October 2013, which was also due to the encounter with cold air that caused Yuyao, Zhejiang to encounter a severe rainstorm that was once seen in a century.
Most of the autumn typhoons have "hard characters". The overall intensity crushes summer typhoons
In addition to playing "combination cards" with cold air, autumn typhoons themselves are often "hard characters". Although the output of autumn typhoons is slightly inferior to that of summer typhoons, the overall intensity of autumn typhoons cannot be underestimated. Less than a week in September, among the three autumn typhoons that have emerged, "Lingling" has jumped to the super typhoon level.
According to statistics from 1949 to 2018, among the autumn typhoons landing in my country, typhoons and above account for about 50%, far higher than 39% of summer typhoons; and strong typhoons and above account for 19% of autumn typhoons, which is also better than 11% of summer typhoons.
Find out the reason, Shao Peng explained that when summer transitions to autumn, the sun moves from north to south, causing the sea temperature to be warmer, which is conducive to the ocean to accumulate more heat, thereby providing greater energy to typhoons, so stronger typhoons are more likely to occur.
Autumn Typhoon "Baby Kid" is elusive, and prediction is more difficult
Autumn Typhoon is not only outstanding in strength, but also often "elusive" in the path.
, the No. 14 Typhoon "Swordfish", which has been discontinued, has embarked on a charming "returning the horse" route. According to the "Typhoons in my country" compiled by the Central Meteorological Observatory in 2015, three typhoons were recorded in the "Typhoons with the most complex path", including Typhoons No. 16 of 1986, Typhoons No. 19 of 1991, and Typhoons No. 16 of 2001, "Nari". Among them, "Nate" and "Lily" are both generated in autumn, and the life cycle of "Wayne" is also in late summer and early autumn.
9119 Typhoon "Nat" path map
0116 Typhoon "Nari" path map
Shao Peng said that the reason why the path of autumn typhoons is more complex and changeable is related to the weather system affecting autumn typhoons. In autumn, such as the westerly wind belt, subtropical high pressure, cold air, etc., these weather systems compete with each other without deciding their victory or defeat. It is like a "naughty child" is influenced and controlled by different "parents", so it becomes east and west, south and north, with strange and changeable paths. greatly increases the difficulty of prediction.
And the autumn typhoon "Lingling" was really because the "deputy high father" was too strong, so this well-behaved child went north under the guidance of the outer circulation of the deputy high father.
The landing location of autumn typhoon is south-centered. I love Guangdong and Hainan. Although the autumn typhoon "Lingling" firmly heads north, overall, compared with summer typhoons, the location of autumn typhoons landing in my country is more south-centered, mainly concentrated in South China such as Guangdong and Hainan.
China Weather Network meteorological analyst Shao Peng proposed that with Nanling as the boundary, provinces (regions) where typhoons often land in summer and autumn can be divided into the "two camps" of north and south. Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan, and Hong Kong south of Nanling belong to the "south camp", and Taiwan, Fujian, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shandong, Shanghai, and Tianjin belong to the "north camp".
According to the big data analysis of China Weather Network, compared with summer, the percentage of typhoons landing in the "South Camp" after September has a significant upward trend. In September, the proportion of typhoons landed in the "South Camp" was 52.5%, and in October it rose to 75.6%, and in November it even climbed to 83.3%.
Shao Peng introduced that after autumn, the subtropical high pressure that affects the typhoon path begins to retreat eastward and move southward, and gradually move southward, and is mostly strip-shaped, thus blocking the path of the typhoon moving northward.
"big drama" of autumn typhoons begin. September typhoons may be more frequent than usual
As of August 31, there were 12 typhoons in Northwest Pacific and South China Sea this year, an average of 2.4 fewer than the same period in many years. Among them, from June to August, only four typhoons landed in my country, slightly less than the same period in many years.
China Weather Network meteorological analyst Shao Peng analyzed that it is expected that in September this year, there may be 5 to 6 tropical cyclones in the northwest Pacific and the South China Sea, which is more than the same period of the previous year (4.9), of which 2 to 3 tropical cyclones will land or significantly affect my country.
Experts remind that the autumn typhoon family is very likely to appear "strong" roles, and the destructive power should not be underestimated. Don't relax your vigilance and take various defensive measures!
Planning/Wang Wenwen Song Huacheng Design/Li Yiyu
Data support/Shao Peng Review/Zhang Hui Liu Jun Liu Wenjing
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