Previously, Ukrainian President Zelensky once said that if the Russian army completely annihilates the Ukrainian defenders of Mariupol , then the door to all negotiations will be completely closed. The reality now is that the Russian army completely conquered Mariupol and wiped out the Azov Battalion deployed in the local area and the 36th Brigade of the Marine Corps, a famous elite Ukraine force. A large number of freed Russian troops began to attack other areas of Donbas.
(Ukrainian President Zelensky)
In this case, the door to negotiations between Ukraine and Russia is not only not closed, but may be reopened. According to the latest foreign media reports, just a few days ago, Ukrainian President Zelensky claimed that Ukraine is not in a hurry to talk to Russian President Putin , but has to face the reality, which is likely a necessary condition to end the war.
(The last batch of Ukrainian troops and "Azov Battalion" personnel in Mariupol Azov Steel Plant surrendered)
Zelensky's statement can somehow show that the attitude of the Ukrainian top leaders is changing.
It is also worth mentioning that Zelensky's adviser Alestovitch also said that Liman, a strategic city in the Donbass region of Ukraine, has been lost. "The way the Russian army occupied the city shows that the Russian army deployed quite talented commanders there, and the Russian army's tactical level is improving." The Ukrainian presidential adviser was not an ordinary person, and at the beginning of the war he informed the world of tactical victory of the Ukrainian army again and again. It turns out that most of his statements are accurate. However, at this moment, even his attitude began to be pessimistic, which shows how difficult the situation the Ukrainian army is currently facing.
(Alestovic, Ukrainian Presidential Adviser)
This judgment by the Ukrainian senior officials is naturally based on the situation of war. Today, the Ukrainian army has deployed almost all its elite forces in the Donbas region, but since the Russian army gave up the way of opening and closing in the first phase of the war, they have been very good at using the smallest cost to achieve the greatest results. There are two most important transportation hubs in the northern part of Donbass, namely the Pospana Protrusion and the Finnishman. Now these two places have been taken down by Russia. That is to say, most of the supply lines of the Ukrainian army were completely cut off.
(The last bridge of Hongliman has been blown up by the Ukrainian army)
The current style of play of the Russian army is very clear. First of all, we should give full play to our artillery advantages in tactical use and gradually erode the positions of the Ukrainian army. It turns out that this approach is the most cost-effective. Strategically, the Russian army interspersed on the two wings of two major protrusions of Ijium and Pospana, and the middle line broke south at Chonglimann, trying to achieve the division and encirclement of the main force of the Ukrainian army. Once the Russian army achieves this strategic goal, not only North Donetsk will be completely surrounded, but the entire northeastern Ukraine is in danger.
(Russian army has entered the North Donetsk city area)
At present, the most important place for the two sides is North Donetsk. Since the two main armies of the Ukrainian army were wiped out in the Battle of Jebalicewo in 2015, the local government has been the actual administrative center of Luhansk Oblast in Ukraine. For Ukraine, it has great significance both strategically and politically, so the Ukrainian army has deployed about 16,000 main forces locally.
But to some extent, the North Donetsk's defensive defense is already a burden for Ukraine because they have no hope of winning locally. Although Mariupol insisted on the surface until May 16, large-scale surrender began to occur, the Ukrainian army in Mariupol city was annihilated as early as mid-April, and North Donetsk did not have a large fortress like the Azov Steel Plant for Ukraine to defend.
(The battle situation is extremely unfavorable for Ukraine)
When the Russian army will take down the northern Netsk depends on their determination to fight, but it is only a matter of time before the local area is completely captured by the Russian army. The next step between the two sides should enter the third stage of the war. In this stage, the main combat locations are likely to be in Kurahovo and kramatoolsk . The former deployed the last elite assets of the Ukrainian Army after the reconstruction of , while the latter is the actual administrative capital of , which is currently controlled by Ukraine. Once the Russian army completely takes these two places, any resistance from Ukraine in Donbas will lose its meaning.
