Author: Lin Man
Source: Stock Market Dynamic Analysis
Different from the previous situation where the investment directors of funds and the blooming of flowers, the general direction of fund investment has been surprisingly consistent since this year, which is to target popular sectors led by new energy.
With the continuous increase in policies and enterprises, new energy industries such as new energy vehicles and accessories, wind power, photovoltaics, energy storage and hydrogen energy have continued to rise this year, bringing about rounds of investment booms in the market, and most of the stock prices of core stocks have shown a beautiful upward trend. The enthusiasm of the stock market has also spilled into the fund market, and many fund products that have heavy investment in new energy have achieved considerable returns this year.
Oriental Wealth Choice data shows that as of December 20, 2021, more than half of the top ten funds in the unit net value growth rate this year have heavily invested in new energy stocks with a price-to-earnings ratio of more than 50 times (see Table 1). In addition to new energy, some top-ranked funds are also investing in other popular sectors such as chip semiconductors and medicine. Overall, "moving forward in groups" has become the main theme of this year's fund market.
Table 1: Top ten unit net value growth rates and heavy positions of targets
Data source: Oriental Fortune Choice
New energy, semiconductor and other sectors are so popular in the market. It is a favorable signal for my country's related industries to overtake and the rise of domestic substitution. It is understandable to participate in it to seek high returns, but from an investment perspective, the general "learning the east wind" market cannot demonstrate the real operating strength of fund managers.
More importantly, the other side of high returns is high risk. Due to the strong hype sentiment, many core stocks in new energy and other sectors are no longer cheap, and there is widespread "bubble" controversy. Although the industry's prosperity remains high, how long it can last and whether it will rise and fall heavily are still a concern for many investors.
In fact, some fund managers are quite helpless about "following the flow". Previously, when Kweichow Moutai was a big hit in Sifang and liquor was in the limelight, a fund manager insisted not to hold heavy positions, but his performance continued to be set, and he eventually had to "take his head" to reality.
Can't you produce results without joining the group? Of course not. As shown in Table 1, some funds still entered the top camp without betting on new energy. Among them, Dacheng Fund has the largest number of them on the list, namely Dacheng State-owned Enterprise Reform Flexible Allocation Mixed, Dacheng New Industry Mixed, and Dacheng Ruijing Flexible Allocation Mixed. These three funds are all under the jurisdiction of Dacheng Fund Fund Manager Han Chuang. The top ten holdings do not include high-valuation new energy concept stocks and other popular group stocks.
No wind and waves
no "Mao" and no "lithium". How did Hanchuang break into the front line of performance?
looked at the details of Hanchuang's holdings in the fund and found that 80% of its top ten heavy holdings cover the manufacturing and mining industries, most of which are cyclical growth stocks. (See Table 2)
Table 2: The top ten stocks held by the three funds managed by Hanchuang
Data source: Oriental Fortune Choice
Last year, the United States continued to release money, and after Biden took office, he invested heavily in infrastructure, stimulating the prices of non-ferrous commodities continued to rise, and cyclical stocks began to make their mark in the second half of the year. Until this year, the policy environment is still relatively loose, and cyclical growth stocks are becoming more and more proud. Some investors even said that this year is a big year for cyclical stocks.
It should be noted that Hanchuang won with cyclical stocks this year, not because it has been staying in this field, but because it compares and screens based on its outstanding stock selection ability. It can be said that Han Chuang discovered the cycle, not that the cycle made Han Chuang popular.
Although he only started as the fund manager of Dacheng Fund in 2019, Han Chuang had many years of sell-side research experience.
has gradually formed a complete and flexible investment system by constantly conducting dynamic reviews of the industry and companies. Hanchuang's investment framework mainly consists of three paths: selecting industries with beta, discovering companies with alpha, and having relatively reasonable valuations, both of which are indispensable.
beta coefficient reflects the performance of the industry relative to the market. Generally, the higher the beta coefficient of the fund combination, the greater the same-directional response to market changes. If certain sectors of the market grow well, choosing a high beta combination will further amplify the original returns and bring more returns, which is an important indicator to examine the industry's prosperity; the Alpha represents the excess returns achieved by stocks, which is an important reflection of the company's quality; on the basis of both, seek reasonable valuations to maximize the cost-effectiveness.
Hanchuang is not just seeking "cheap" for valuation. It will enter from the perspectives of horizontal and vertical direction, compare it horizontally with other companies in other industries and vertically, and compare the fund with its own historical valuation center. He believes that no matter the valuation is high or low, it is necessary to find a reasonable explanation, otherwise it will be easy to "stand guard" at a high level or fall into the trap of low valuation.
Based on this, Han Chuangneng will not be bound by a single trend, discover more valuable industries and targets, and achieve everlasting performance.
As of the first three quarters of this year, the total scale of the five funds managed by Hanchuang exceeded 20 billion yuan, and all of them performed well (see Table 3). Among them, Dacheng Newcomers ranked in the top 2% of the same category in the past one, the past two years, the past three years, the past four years and the past five years. Dacheng Ruijing and Dacheng state-owned enterprise reform ranked in the top 3% of the same category in the past one, the past two years and the past three years.
Table 3: Performance of Hanchuang Management Fund
Data source: Dacheng Fund
is not a "high jump", but a "marathon"
The investment philosophy of taking care of the past and taking care of the future allows the funds managed by Hanchuang to obtain considerable returns while also having a higher safety margin.
Oriental Fortune Choice data shows that from the beginning of this year to December 20, the maximum drawdown of Dacheng New Industry Mixed Industry Mixed was -14.34%, and the maximum drawdown of Dacheng's state-owned enterprise reform flexible allocation Mixed was -14.71%, ranking first and second among the above top ten mixed open-end funds. Since taking office in
, the largest drawdown in Hanchuang management products was -16.15%, which is equivalent to the largest drawdown in the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index during the same period; the annualized combination volatility reached 23.04%, and the Sharp ratio was 0.35, ranking in the top 6% of 2,268 similar funds, reflecting its strong return ability under the same risks.
In Han Chuang's eyes, fund investment is not pursuing instantaneous extreme high jump sports, but a long marathon, seeking faster and more stability.
How to invest in Hanchuang in 2022?
has brought many results, and how Hanchuang started in 2022 has attracted much attention. "Stock Market Dynamic Analysis" noticed that on January 4, 2022, Han Chuang will issue a new fund, Dacheng Juyou Growth Mixed Securities Investment Fund (hereinafter referred to as "Dacheng Juyou Growth", code: 014224). Based on the fact that Han Chuang expressed in his recent survey that he wanted to focus more on serving stock holders, it made people speculate that after this fund, Han Chuang may not manage a new fund for the time being in 2022.
For investment next year, Han Chuang believes that the style will be more balanced and will not be as extreme as last year or this year. Under this, stock selection will become more important. Specifically, there are three major directions worth paying attention to:
The first is manufacturing industry. Hanchuang said that the comparative advantage of manufacturing is the most obvious and will continue to explore this area of opportunities. No matter how the market style will change, holding these companies will still get a relatively good return next year.
The second is the dual carbon direction. has a wide range of dual carbon directions, including the power grid investment direction that is being interpreted and some high-energy-consuming industries. Although there has been a major drawdown due to the policy reversal after October, the cyclical growth direction is worth paying attention to. After a round of pullbacks, many individual stocks have low implicit expectations. As long as the price center does not drop next year, these individual stocks may have opportunities.
The third direction is wealth management, and this field is already the general trend. Other financial stocks will also be allocated.
Hanchuang's investment framework is relatively mature. Whether it is a long-lasting fund year like 2020 or an year when fund returns differentiation is very obvious in 2021, Hanchuang has shown a very stable level. Han Chuang was originally optimistic about 2022, and Dacheng Juyou's performance is worth looking forward to.
(Editor: Xiaogu)
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