fundamentals
Spot gold fluctuates narrowly within , and is currently trading around $1,721. Although Federal Reserve officials reiterated that they will adhere to the path of interest rate hikes , unswervingly solve the inflation problem, help the US dollar rebound, and cause gold prices to pull back slightly around the 55-day moving average 1,724, but US service industry activity slowed down moderately in September, the geopolitical situation in Russia and Ukraine is still tense, and the gold price correction is relatively small, and the gold price is still biased towards long in the short term, and is expected to break the resistance near the 55-day moving average.
market attention began to focus on the US non-farm employment report for September released this Friday. The service industry employment index reported by ISM soared from 50.2 in August to 53.0, and ADP jobs increased by 208,000 in September, implying that the US labor market is still stable and the long-short game may intensify. Investors also need to pay attention to changes in the number of initial jobless claims in the United States in the evening and changes in the number of layoffs of challenger companies in September. In addition, news about geopolitical situations and speeches by Fed officials still need to be paid attention to.
Gold analysis
Gold yesterday was under pressure of 1730, and in the evening, affected by the small non-agricultural ADP data and speeches of relevant Fed personnel, gold retreated to the expected support line of 1700, and then the market fluctuated and rebounded again. Finally, the daily line closed with a small negative line with a long lower shadow. Judging from the pace of gold running yesterday, although the short-term market has a pressure pullback, in an environment with relatively short fundamentals, it only retreated to around 1,700, and the subsequent rebound was not too small. This is enough to show that the market still retains certain bullish expectations for gold, which is based on the expectation of technical structure.
However, in terms of the daily line structure, since gold closed negative yesterday, it means that a short-term rise has shown some fatigue. The upper trend line and the upper edge pressure of the range of 1735-40 may still become a key suppressing force. If you want to break through, you need more fundamental support. This hope is based on Friday's non-agricultural market, but it is not advisable to expect too much at present. After all, in terms of the daily line structure, if gold can continue to fall back to support today and tomorrow to consolidate, it may be more helpful to the rise expectations.
combined with hourly chart trend , gold ran two short-term rises, and yesterday's market also made a volatile correction after the second wave of rise as expected. There is a technical possibility of a third wave of rise, and the trend in the second half of the night also tends to move towards the expectation of a third wave of rise. However, the space for the third wave of rise is relatively limited, and it may be blocked near the second wave high point 1728-30, or it may cross the second wave high point, and the pressure-testing trend line pressure area 1735-40, but combined with the fundamental time point, the probability of the former occurring is relatively high, that is, it may be under pressure and pullback around 1730 today and tomorrow to wait for the non-agricultural data to provide final guidance.
To sum up: gold is paid attention to the short pressure 1728-30 above, strong pressure 1735-38 below, and competition around 1715 below, but the main support is still to look at the lower edge of the hourly chart range 1705-00 area.The main idea today and tomorrow is to look at the fluctuation, and the operation is carried out lightly to avoid the risk of market tension before major data. Radical ones will focus on the above ranges for short-term low-border and high-altitude;
The day rebounds 1728-30 short , stop loss above 1733, the target is first to look at the 1720-18 area to reduce positions, and some positions can be retained with with guaranteed stop loss in the 1715-1710 area to leave the market;
If you stand firmly 1 Above 730, consider shorting at 1738-39, stop loss above 1745, target first look at the 1728-1725 area reduction position, you can leave some positions with guaranteed stop loss, see the exit near 1720;
The day falls back to 1705-1708 and enter the market in batches, and stop loss is placed at 1699, target first look at the 1720-25 area reduction position, retain part of position with guaranteed stop loss, and see the exit area of 1730-35 area exit;
article can only provide one direction and idea, the specific details shall be subject to the actual market!
I have been deeply engaged in the gold market for more than ten years, and have analyzed varieties such as gold and silver, crude oil, foreign exchange, etc. Combined with the market news, we can analyze changes in market sentiment, mainly short-term, medium- and long-term; with monthly cycles. I have all-round time: 7:00 am to 2:00 am. The content of the article is for reference only. The specific intraday trading shall prevail. Investment is risky, so please do a good job of risk control.
