convective cloud system is developing vigorously, and local heavy rain has occurred in Pingtung County. The Meteorological Bureau continues to release special reports on heavy rain in five counties and cities south of Chiayi. Affected by the southwest wind, local heavy rain is still prone to occur on the 18th due to short-term heavy rainfall. Meteorological experts said that although the southwest winds cause rains to gradually slow down, occasional showers are likely to occur in various places. The numerical forecast mode in the later period next week showed that tropical disturbances approached near Taiwan, and the 11th typhoon this year may be generated next week.
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Meteorological experts pointed out that on the 18th, the southwest wind continued to affect, and there were short-term showers or thunderstorms in the south of Miaoli and Yilan . There were short-term heavy rains from the early morning to the morning, and local heavy rains. Taitung also had local short-term showers. Other areas were cloudy to sunny in the morning, and local short-term thunderstorms in the afternoon, among which there were local heavy rains in the north and the eastern half of the mountainous areas and Greater Taipei and Yilan areas.
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The Meteorological Bureau pointed out that on the 19th and 20th (next Monday and Tuesday), Taiwan, China is located in the large and low pressure zone, the atmospheric environment is unstable, and there is still a chance of local heavy rain, and there may be mesoscale low pressure or the development of tropical systems; there will be temporary showers or thunderstorms in the southern region, and there will also be local temporary showers or thunderstorms in other regions. The rain gradually slowed down around the 21st (next Wednesday), but there are still local temporary showers or thunderstorms in the south, and local temporary thunderstorms in the afternoon in other areas.
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Meteorological experts analyzed that the southwest wind gradually weakened, but the weather in Taiwan will not get better quickly. There were still showers in the central and southern parts of the 17th and 18th, and it was almost 700 mm in three consecutive days, which was a test for the mountainous areas, especially in the early morning rain, the weather was relatively good in the north and the eastern half of the day, and afternoon thunderstorms in the mountainous areas will also occur in the second half of the day.
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Taiwan will still be in a southwest wind environment in the next 3 or 4 days. Although the rainfall is light, there will be more and more thunderstorms in the afternoon, and occasionally showers will begin in the north, mainly because the Pacific high-pressure forces are eastward. Taiwan, China has been located in a low-pressure area for a long time. The atmospheric environment is unstable, and it is easy to develop convection.
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In addition, next week is located in the low-pressure area. Meteorological experts pointed out that the weather in various places will become unstable throughout the day. Next week, the numerical forecast mode will have a result of tropical disturbances approaching nearby. Typhoon No. 11 has the chance to rise. Now it is too early and the variables are still large. It is more appropriate to observe until the tropical low-pressure is generated. Don’t be too urgent and the accuracy is not high. There may be no typhoon generation signal in the next mode and forecast. Remind the public to pay attention to and update the weather forecast at any time next week.
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The Meteorological Bureau released a special report on heavy rain. Today, the southwest wind is affected and there is a possibility of short-term heavy rainfall. There is a chance of local heavy rain in the areas south of Chiayi. Pay attention to lightning strikes and strong gusts; rainfall for several days, mountainous areas are prevented from collapse and falling rocks. Meteorological experts said that today the southwest monsoon carries low-level water vapor, and the convection is unstable; there are local showers or thunderstorms on the windward surface, which has the chance of stimulating severe weather (lightning strikes, strong winds, instant heavy rainfall), bringing the threat of flooding in low-lying areas, and there is a potential for large amounts of rainfall.
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Meteorological experts analyze that due to the accumulation of large amounts of rainfall in mountainous areas in recent days, the water content of soil and rocks has reached the critical value. When it comes to rain again, it does not have to be too heavy, and it is easy to cause landslides, rockfalls, soil and rock flows and other disasters. Special attention should be paid to avoid activities in mountainous areas. The northern and eastern half of the leeward side are mostly cloudy and sunny, with occasional temporary showers or thunderstorms in some areas, and there is also a higher chance of rainfall. The weather in the north and eastern half is stuffy when there is no rain during the day. Today, it is 25 to 35 degrees in the north, 24 to 31 degrees in the middle, 24 to 32 degrees in the south, and 24 to 35 degrees in the east.
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Meteorological experts pointed out that Taiwan is in the low-pressure monsoon circulation tomorrow and Tuesday, and the atmosphere is very unstable, which stimulates severe weather and the weather patterns that have been raining heavily in recent days, which are not over yet.The low-level water vapor decreases from Wednesday to Friday, the atmosphere gradually stabilizes, and the cloudy and sunny places are everywhere, with local showers or thunderstorms in the afternoon, and the chance of mountainous areas is higher. The weather on Saturday depends on the development and trends of tropical disturbances, which still need further observation.
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According to the latest simulations of various countries (European ECMWF, US GFS, Canadian CMC), there is a chance of typhoons occurring around Wednesday and Thursday in the eastern sea of the Philippines. However, due to the 4- or 5-day simulation, there is a certain error, and the trends of simulations of various countries are also inconsistent, it is not suitable now. The impact of its impact on Taiwan, China is discussed based on the simulation. Due to the large uncertainty, it needs to be observed again.
