Preface: On October 11, 2021, North Korea held a national defense development exhibition in Pyongyang, exhibiting the ballistic missile developed in the past few years. People were surprised to find that not only are there Mars series ballistic missiles and Polaris submarine-launched missiles similar to Dongfeng 11, Dongfeng 15, Dongfeng 21, Dongfeng 31, Dongfeng 41, Julang 1, and Julang 1, as well as Mars-8 hypersonic missiles similar to Dongfeng-17. Almost China's Dongfeng series missiles North Korea seems to have similar products. It is obvious that China cannot help North Korea develop ballistic missiles. So have these weapons that look like Dongfeng series copied the appearance?
1: The reason why North Korea desperately develops ballistic missiles
Although North Korea has huge conventional military power, it is almost just a decoration. The combat capabilities of the army, navy and air force are no longer of the magnitude level compared to South Korea. The Air Force is unable to carry out large-scale air operations. A large number of MiG21, MiG23, and MiG29 fighters are usually at the lowest training standard due to lack of parts. The pilot's annual flight time is only 15 hours a year, which is just one month's training time for the South Korean Air Force. Therefore, the North Korean Air Force has been constantly seeking parts of MiG21 fighter jets from China and the former Soviet republics. The 35 MiG29 fighters in service have been over 30 years old, and only a very small number are still in combat readiness flight. The 55th Fighter Regiment has only 8 in movable states, and only one can fly. The R60 infrared air-to-air missiles and R27 semi-active radar air-to-air missiles used by this batch of MiG29 fighters were produced in 1986. Even if it can be launched, there are no weapons besides the naval artillery. The situation of the navy and the army is basically the same. The huge army armored forces are still dominated by T62 tanks. With the surge in the international price of oil, the training of the Korean People's Army armored forces has also been greatly reduced. The 820th Tank Legion and the 815th Mechanized Legion have not held regiment-scale tank training in the past few years. A large number of T62 and T72 main battle tanks do not seem to have effective attack capabilities in front of the main battle tanks of the South Korean army. The S75 and S200 surface-to-air missiles of the North Korean Air Defense Force are almost unable to shoot down any modern combat aircraft. The Navy is basically at the level of 22 Class 035 submarines and missile speedboats. In 1975, a 1500-ton frigate was built, and in 1982, a large surface ship that had not been updated was produced outside the 1600-ton frigate. It only obtained a Russian 3000-ton frigate in 2003, stranded in Nanpu Port. There was no radar or weapons on the ship, but it was only used for research. It required huge funds for renewal of weapons. North Korea's foreign exchange reserves were no more than US$500 million, and it was a battalion of S300 surface-to-air missiles. You can't afford
Once a war breaks out, the US Navy nuclear submarines and surface ships deployed near North Korea launch the Tomahawk cruise missiles, and the B-1 and B-52 bombers from Guam dropped raindrop precision strike ammunition to destroy North Korea's long-range artillery, and then destroy the combat effectiveness of war-related production facilities. Tanks and infantry of the North Korean army may flock to the "38th parallel" to counterattack. Since most of the North Korean army's equipment is old, the ground forces of the US Allied Forces should stick to their positions and allow the US Air Force's F-16 and the US Navy's F/A-18 and other combat opportunities to compress the North Korean army's counterattack capabilities to nearly zero. The US military can almost destroy all the combat effectiveness of Iraqi , such as Iraqi . Although it is difficult for the United States to destroy the combat effectiveness of the North Korean army with only conventional weapons, the North Korean army is also unable to counterattack. Under such conditions, the only most effective means to curb US military invasion is nuclear deterrence and ballistic missiles.
If North Korea has an intercontinental missile with a range of US mainland, it will become a real threat to US security. The United States may hesitate to launch an attack. Since 2017, North Korea has continuously tested multiple missiles, including "Mars"-12 and "Mars"-14, which can attack US overseas territories and even local areas, used high-ballistic tests with higher launch angles than conventional launches and intended to shorten flight distances. On August 10, 2017, North Korea predicted that it would launch four "Mars"-12 missiles into the waters around Guam. This was a serious provocation that was enough to trigger war in the past. The United States is still seeking non-military means to solve the problem. US Secretary of State Tillerson said that "the United States is neither the enemy of North Korea nor a threat." It seems that I have seen this clearly. This is the main reason why North Korea has concentrated all its strength in recent years to prioritize the development of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles in extreme difficulties.
completely relies on nuclear weapons and strategic rocket forces to use nuclear war to curb conventional attacks that the United States may launch. It is North Korea's current military strategy. The situation is the same as the Soviet army's nuclear containment theory in the 1960s. North Korean ballistic missile base is built in Hamgyong North Road Wushuiduan of east coast . The large missile base is located in Dongcangli, Tesan County, Ping'an North Road, near the coast, and the distance from Xinyiju is no more than 200 kilometers. In the early 1980s, North Korea imported Scud ballistic missiles from Egypt . On this basis, it began the research and development of ballistic missiles. North Korea is engaged in the development of nuclear weapons and various ballistic missile technologies at least 1,000 core scientific and technological talents and experts. In addition to the factory's technicians, university professors, students, rocket experts and scholars, the total number is close to 10,000.
2: Technical source of North Korea's ballistic missiles
Before the collapse of in 1991, a tactical missile brigade of the Soviet Union was under three launch battalions, each of which was under two companies (two launch teams each). The brigade had a total of 12 launch vehicles. The Soviet army had a total of 661 Scud ballistic missile launch vehicles. In addition, it was exported to Warsaw Pact , Egypt, and Syria. Asia and other countries, including , Afghanistan, 624, 24, Egypt in 1971, 11, Iraq in 1974, 72, Libya: nine, Syria, 12, Yemen in 1978, and 12, Vietnam in 1979, the Soviet Union did not directly export Scud ballistic missile launchers to North Korea. Therefore, North Korea purchased Scud ballistic missile launchers from Egypt, but the number would be quite limited, because Egypt only obtained 24, mainly targeting South Korea's US military bases and South Korea's military targets.
These missile launch vehicles are deployed in the cave library. The warheads and fuel are loaded for missile and the holes are filled. The distance from the hole to the launch site is roughly 500 meters. Based on the speed of 25 kilometers per hour, the driving distance of 500 meters will take approximately 1.2-2 minutes. Because for safety reasons, it is impossible for the launch vehicle to enter the launch site at full speed. The meteorological radar brigade needs to launch RMS-1 radio. High altitude detectors and balloons, meteorological radar needs to be tested in wind direction, and then the relevant data is transmitted to the command vehicle and launch vehicle through the computer. The missile must be launched within 15 minutes. As long as a large number of various meteorological radar vehicles are found, it means the precursor to the large-scale use of ballistic missiles. Therefore, it is almost impossible to launch an unpredictable surprise attack with ballistic missiles. The US military's long-term satellite reconnaissance 15 minutes is enough to discover the position, and then notify the on-duty bomber through the data keys. cruise missile launches an attack.
Scud ballistic missiles Because of the use of toxic liquid fuel, it is possible for a small number of ballistic missiles to launch a surprise attack on the United States, Japan and South Korea. However, it is almost impossible to launch a large-scale ballistic missile surprise attack. North Korea began to develop its own ballistic missile based on Soviet technology. Through years of development, North Korea has improved the missile's maximum range, engine performance, fuel and launch method, warhead size and shape, and a complete weapon system is gradually being improved.North Korea's ballistic missiles have been underway for at least more than ten years since the engine. In 2017, North Korea's ballistic missiles made a qualitative leap. North Korea has conducted at least 11 new ballistic missile launch tests, and successively launched the "Light Star 2" solid medium-range ballistic missile, Mars 12 medium-range ballistic missile, Mars 14 two-stage intercontinental ballistic missile, and Mars 15 two-stage intercontinental ballistic missile with a range covering 2000, 5000, 8000, and 12000 kilometers. It also means that North Korea's ballistic missile industry has solved various technical problems such as simultaneous ignition, separation, ablation, inertial guidance technology, shock absorption, and other technologies.
Scud ballistic missile guidance system is not complicated. If you want to hit the United States 10,000 kilometers away, you must ensure the correct flight orbit and hit accuracy. If you have a slight deviation in Los Angeles, you may hit the Mojave Desert . In order to correct the deviation between the actual orbit and the planned orbit, the United States and Russia not only rely on the inertial navigation systems and GPS, but also correct it by measuring the constellation to ensure that the range of 12,000 kilometers is only 80 meters. It is very difficult for North Korea to achieve an error rate comparable to the US military, but it is not easy to control the error to several hundred meters. However, North Korea does not need to accurately strike the accuracy of the other party's underground launch silo. For cities, an error of 10 kilometers is enough. From this perspective, North Korea needs to cross the technical threshold for returning to the atmosphere is lower than that of the United States and Russia. From June 2016 to the present, North Korea has conducted seven high-ballistic tests in total, with the main purpose of obtaining data on returning to the atmosphere technology. Some levels exceed that of China's Dongfeng 4 liquid ballistic missiles, and are not inferior to India in terms of range, accuracy, and progress. The development speed of such a great leap forward is far beyond that of the Soviet Union in the 1960s and China in the 1970s and 1980s. Who is helping North Korea make such rapid progress? The South Korean military salvaged the Galaxy 3 rocket from Huanghai . It found that the pressure sensor, sensor and circuit are all produced by Western countries. The rocket engine used is similar to the engine produced by Ukraine. It is carved from the same mold from size, shape to performance. However, the rocket engine produced by Ukraine has 2 nozzles, while North Korea only has 1. This may be a self-transformed part. The design characteristics of the liquid fuel intercontinental rocket are unique and have North Korea's own characteristics, proving that these rocket designs are mainly completed by North Korea's own strength. Behind this is the accumulation of North Korea's own technology, but foreign technology also plays a big role. In this regard, Ukraine is often mentioned, and the parts are smuggled into the highly commercialized Western companies from the prevalence of corruption. Come,
The only one related to China in North Korea's strategic missile is the large missile carrier. North Korea once imported 6 WS-51200 8-axis launch vehicle chassis made by Wanshan from China. The 9-axis launch vehicle is a very complex technology and is extremely difficult to develop. Its key core technologies are only Russia, Belarus and China. Yes, North Korea may be the fourth country to master this technology. North Korea mastered the technology equivalent to the Russian "Polka Domino" intercontinental missile launcher through the 9-axis 18x14TEL launcher of the "Mars"-15, and mastered the 8-axis all-wheel drive technology of the "Polka Domino" missile through the 11-axis 22x16TEL launcher of the "Mars"-16. This launcher is the missile launcher with the largest number of axes in the world, but it is not an all-wheel drive method. Instead, the 11x8 drive mode may be to dismantle two "Mars"-15 launch vehicles, and install two axles in the middle of the vehicle body to create an 11-axis launch vehicle. The degree of integration of command and technology launch is quite high. It only needs one launch vehicle to launch, and no other engineering vehicles are required to assist. This is a very amazing technology.
3: North Korea's ballistic missile types
With the improvement of the manufacturing level of new missiles, North Korea has basically formed a complete global firepower strike system. It is the sixth country that has achieved global firepower after the United States, Russia, China, Britain and France. If arranged from small to large, the smallest range is the appearance similar to Russia's " Iskander " and the appearance similar to the US ATACMS Army Warfare The two short-range solid ballistic missiles of the tech missile have a maximum range of 400 kilometers and can undergo maneuverable orbital change at the end. The design idea is very similar to the China Dongfeng 15 maneuverable orbital change ballistic missile. The second is the "Mars"-6 ballistic anti-ship missile tested in May 2017. The missile has a precision guidance system that locks sea ships, with a range of 300~1,000 kilometers. The design idea is very similar to the China Dongfeng 21 ballistic anti-ship missile, while the "Mars"-7 medium-range missile has a maximum range of about 1,300 kilometers, more like the Dongfeng 21, and its range can cover the entire territory of Japan.
ranks third with the "Mars"-12 medium-range ballistic missile launched in May 2017. "Mars"-12 is an improved version of "Mars"-10 with a maximum range of 2,500~4,000 kilometers, mainly targeting Guam. This is very similar to the Dongfeng 26 medium-range ballistic missile. The fourth with the "Mars"-14 intercontinental missile launched in July 2017, with a maximum range of 6,000 kilometers and can cover Hawaii, the capital of Alaska. Its derivative "Mars"-15 intercontinental missile can range from more than 13,000 kilometers, covering Chicago, Washington, DC, New York and other places. This means that the United States is already in the strike range of North Korea's intercontinental ballistic missiles. The entire diameter and length of Mars 15 are All have increased, and have also made amazing progress in the use of shell composite materials. Compared with Dongfeng 31, the "Mars"-16 intercontinental ballistic missile, this new missile is 23-24 meters long and has a bullet diameter of more than 2.4 meters. It is actually an amplified version of the "Mars"-15 missile, which is 3 meters longer than the Mars 15 intercontinental ballistic missile, and the diameter is also increased by 30~40 cm. The takeoff mass may reach 70-80 tons, which is close to China's "Dongfeng-41" missile. The "Mars"-15 can only carry one ton of single warhead, and the warhead may be insufficient. The warhead part of the "Mars"-16 warhead is also longer than other models. The first stage of the "Mars"-15 is a double-chamber swing liquid fuel engine with an 80-ton single turbo pump. Star-16 has two "Mars"-15 engines in parallel, with a total thrust of 160 tons and a load of 2,000 to 3,500 kilograms. It can carry North Korea's self-developed million-ton equivalent hydrogen bomb, or it can be equipped with warhead housing, which can be equipped with multiple warheads to enhance the ability to break through the US national anti-missile system. In theory, it can be launched anywhere on the US mainland and attack Washington and New York at the same time. It is the most powerful liquid maneuver ballistic missile in the world. The reliability of the
The success rate of North Korea's medium-range missiles is not high. 7 of the 8 "Mars"-10 missiles tested after April 2016 failed, but North Korea's Mars series all use liquid rocket engines, which shows that North Korea's solidity The level of bulk fuel liquid rocket engines seems to be low. North Korea is the only country that uses launchers to carry such large liquid intercontinental ballistic missiles. The Polaris-1 submarine-site missile launched in February 2017 was changed to the Polaris-2 solid-fuel ballistic missile. The Polaris-3 is another improved version of the second-generation submarine-launched missile "Polaris-2". The length of the -3" submarine-launched missile is estimated to be about 10 meters, the diameter is about 1.6-1.7 meters, and the range is 1,900 kilometers. It is basically the same as the Giant Wave Type 1, to ensure that it can still carry out a secondary strike against Japan and South Korea when the US military strikes first. The "Polaris-4" is the land-based version of the "Polaris-2". The coating is basically similar to the coating of the "Polaris-3" missile. The missile diameter is slightly larger, the length is shorter, and the top of the warhead is sharper.The engine shell is made of carbon fiber structure, the weight of the structure is reduced, and the range or payload capacity has also been improved.
4: Conclusion
North Korea's defense development exhibition makes people think about whether these missile technologies in North Korea can really be effective. The test flight altitude of the Mars 14 intercontinental ballistic missile successfully launched by North Korea reached 2,802 kilometers, and the entire flight distance is only about 930 kilometers. To test ballistic missiles with a flight of more than 3,000 kilometers in the entire range, almost all must fly over Japan's mainland or offshore islands. North Korea has not conducted such a test, but I believe that after a long period of testing and improvement, North Korea will still have these missile technologies.
