Zhitong Finance learned that Credit Suisse data shows that the current economic data shows that the risk of a recession in the US economy is not high.
The company created a "recession dashboard" that traces back to the status of seven major economic indicators when each recession began in 1973. In the past economic recession, most indicators were "recession" or "neutral", while among the current indicators, only the yield curve of US Treasury bonds is "recession", and most of the other indicators are "expansion".
On Tuesday, Jonathan Golub, chief equity strategist at Credit Suisse , said in a report to clients: "Key signals such as labor and credit trends are still healthy."
Last week, the U.S. bond yield curve was inverted, a phenomenon that historically heralds a recession. But in the past recession, inflation trends, job creation, credit performance, ISM manufacturing, profit quality and the real estate market have all performed weakly.
The U.S. Department of Labor's July employment report showed that the labor market was strong, with a total labor force reaching a record 163.4 million, and the credit situation did not worsen to recession levels.
According to Golub, inflation and profit quality are both "expansion" indicators. Inflation is close to the Fed's 2% target, while in the second quarter, nearly 75% of the companies reporting earnings exceeded analysts' expectations.
is certain that although the data looks optimistic, Golub said, “After the financial crisis, the recession is more difficult to predict than before.” It is worth noting that uncertainty in the external situation casts a shadow on the overall economic outlook, with U.S. service industry growth slowing to its lowest level in three years in July.
Source: Zhitong Finance
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