Lula (left) Bolsonaro (right) Data picture
Direct news : Mr. Liu, we see that in the just-held Brazil presidential election, former President Lula and current President Bolsonaro had a vote share of equality, both of which were around 45%, so both sides will enter the second round of competition. What does this mean for the next political situation and social and economic development in Brazil?
Special Commentator Liu Heping: I noticed that almost all comments believe that this voting result means that the dispute between Brazil and the left and right has entered a white-hot stage, and Brazilian society will be divided as a result. If former President Lula is elected again, not only will Brazilian politics become left-leaning again, but the entire Latin American region will usher in a new wave of left-wing return.
I basically agree with this judgment. I think that during this election in Brazil, the competition between former President Lula and current President Bolsonaro can be said to be a textbook-level ideological battle. Because according to the political rules commonly used in the West, at the level of national governance, the left advocates a large government and a small society, a large government and a small market, and the right advocates small government and a large society, and , a small government and a large market; at the level of economic and people's livelihood, the left advocates giving full play to the role of the government's visible hand to achieve fair income distribution to take care of the poor as much as possible, while the right advocates full free market competition. At the same time, at the level of social life and religious belief, the left advocates openness and the right advocates conservatism. According to these standards, Lula, who opposes privatization, advocates more taxes on the rich, and vigorously promotes the use of "family allowances" to get rid of the poor in Brazil, can undoubtedly be regarded as the leftist who is standard, while Bolsonaro, who advocates promoting privatization and the market economy, is a typical rightist.
However, despite this, we still do not need to worry too much about the left and right ties in Brazil and even the entire Latin America, and there is no need to have unnecessary fear of the left and right. You should know that in the electoral political environment, the two ideologies of left and right not only have always existed, but are also born together, and the dispute between left and right is also their political norm. Because according to human nature, the poor will definitely advocate fairness, while the rich with strong competitiveness will definitely advocate freedom. This means that as long as there are poor and rich people in a society, there will be ideologies in the world, and there will be disputes between the world. Moreover, when a society has polarization between the rich and the poor, the dispute between the left and the left will intensify. If a society has a large number of middle classes and presents the so-called olive-shaped society , the dispute between the left and right will weaken. So we see that in almost all electoral system environments, left-wing and right-wing parties will appear. The United States is a typical example. The Democratic Party, which represents the interests of the working class, is the left, and the Republican Party, which represents the interests of the bourgeoisie, is the right.
At the same time, just like when a person walks, he must cross his left and right legs one in front and one behind, when a country's politics, economy and society are too left, the right-wing forces will regain and correct the extreme left phenomenon. When the right-wing forces go too far, the left-wing forces will arise to correct them. In this Brazilian election, the reason why the left-wing forces represented by Lula made a comeback is that during the four years of current President Bolsonaro's administration, Brazil experienced high inflation and intensified division between the rich and the poor. Therefore, there is no need to be surprised by the return of the left-wing wave in Brazil and Latin America as a whole. This is just a normal "pendulum effect" that appears in the political, economic and social development of their country, and is also part of the self-recovery and self-regulation of physiological functions.
Direct News: You just said that in general, we should not be worried about the dispute between Brazil and the entire Latin America. So under what special circumstances should we be worried?
Special Commentator Liu Heping: I just mentioned that in the electoral political environment, the dispute between the left and right is not only an objective existence, but also a dispute between the left and right is even very necessary, just like a person must move his left and right legs one by one before he can walk steadily and far away.
However, this must be based on three basic prerequisites, that is, this kind of struggle between the left and right. First, the bottom line of value that cannot be broken through to the common adherence; second, the bottom line of morality cannot be broken through; third, the bottom line of law must be adhered to. Especially the bottom line of the law is the last line of defense to achieve a healthy battle between the left and right. Even if the bottom line of morality and value are broken, as long as the final legal bottom line can be maintained, then this country and society will not be completely out of order and out of control. In the US election that ended a year ago, the left-hand dispute between Biden and Trump, the Democratic Party and Republican Party almost went out of control. The root cause is that Trump's political propositions and political behaviors have completely broken through the bottom line of the United States' values, morality and legality. He not only despises the values that Americans agree with, but also unscrupulously smears opponents on personal social platforms, openly accusing the other party of election fraud without any evidence, and refusing to recognize the election vote counting results, and even encourages supporters to occupy the US Congress. Fortunately, the US Supreme Court defended the last line of defense of the law and did not follow Trump to dance with the chicken. This left-right dispute did not completely lose control.
However, it is very interesting that this Brazilian presidential election seems to be a copy and replay of the US presidential election more than a year ago, both in form and in essence. In essence, this Brazilian presidential election is like the US presidential election a year ago, and it is also a mutual distrust and fight between the left and right factions. In form, former Brazilian President Lula and Biden were challenging the ruling status of the current right-wing president , , among which Biden challenged Trump, and Lula challenged Bolsonaro. What is even more jaw-dropping is that the current Brazilian President Bolsonaro, known as "Tropical Trump", almost all of his governance methods and his way of dealing with people are like Trump. Like Trump, Bolsonaro was also criticized by his opponents for his poor response to the epidemic and climate change during his administration, which affected his election situation. At the same time, during the election process, Bolsonaro, like Trump, accused his opponent of manipulating the election results through an electronic voting system and believed that Brazil's Supreme Court handled this injustice. Obviously, Bolsonaro also wants to use this method to mobilize Brazil's populist sentiment.
Therefore, in this case, will Brazil's left-right disputes go to the brink of out-of-control like the United States? It will be a very test of the rationality of Brazilian voters, the neutrality of civil servants and the military, and the independence of the judicial system.
Also worth noting is that in an interview with Fox News, Bolsonaro also directly called out to the United States, saying that if the left wins the Brazilian election in October, they will never step down, South America will completely turn red, and the United States will be isolated. Unfortunately, Bolsonaro obviously got the wrong target, because the United States is now on the left-wing Biden and the Democratic Party, not on the same ill as him, Trump and the right-wing.
Author丨Liu Heping, Shenzhen Satellite TV's "Live Broadcast Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan" special commentator
Editor丨Liu Ying, Shenzhen Satellite TV Direct News Editor
Typesetting丨Pan Siyi
