Reporter of this newspaper Yao Yao
Today, domestic crude oil futures closed sharply. The main contract of crude oil futures for the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed at 657.4 yuan per barrel, a sharp drop of 6.73%, the largest single-day drop in the contract since March 16.
Image source: Tonghuashun
In this regard, Xiao Yu, a senior energy and chemical researcher at the Soyuz Futures Research Institute, told Securities Daily reporters: "First, domestic crude oil demand has been repeatedly affected by the epidemic, and the fundamental pattern is relatively loose; secondly, affected by the decline in China's demand, Saudi Arabia announced last Sunday that the official crude oil sales price in June was significantly lowered, and the premiums and discounts for all grades of crude oil sold to Asia were nearly 5 US dollars per barrel."
In addition, Guotou Anxin Futures is high Level analyst Li Yunxu told the Securities Daily reporter: "On the one hand, it is because the impact of the domestic epidemic situation on oil demand is still continuing, and refining profits continue to be under pressure. Shandong's local refining start-up rate has rebounded slightly from 49% in early April to 53%, but it is still at the lowest level in the same period in the past five years. The operating rate of main refineries has dropped from 77% in early March to around 67% last week, setting a new low in the past year; on the other hand, it is mainly affected by the sharp drop in international oil prices."
Yesterday, international crude oil prices both fell sharply. As of 6:00 on May 10, 2022, the main contract for ICE Brent crude oil futures closed at US$105.25 per barrel, a drop of 6.35%; as of 5:00 on May 10, 2022, the main contract for NYMEXWTI crude oil futures closed at US$102.35 per barrel, a drop of 6.76%. As of 15:00 on May 10, Beijing time, international oil prices are still on a downward channel.
Xiao Yu said, "The sharp drop in international oil prices is mainly affected by three factors. First, due to the failure to reach an agreement with all member states, the EU has shelved its plan to ban Russian crude oil imports, which has caused the tightening of Russia's supply since May Day to fail to meet expectations; second, the Federal Reserve accelerated its tightening of currencies, the US dollar strengthened, and the European and American stock markets continued to fall sharply, and the global financial market risk aversion sentiment heated up; finally, the decline in demand caused by the continued domestic epidemic has also had an impact on international oil prices."
Li Yunxu also basically agreed with the above view. He said: "International oil prices closed down overnight, mainly due to the EU's embargo on the Russian oil agreement again." The current differences are progressing slowly. On Monday, European Commission President von der Leyen went to Budapest to discuss the issue of phased ban on Russian crude oil. Hungary's foreign minister said that until Hungary's concerns are resolved, Hungary cannot accept the new round of sanctions proposed by the EU on Russia. "
Regarding the subsequent trend of international oil prices, Liu Cunxin, assistant manager of Rongzhi Investment Fund of Paipai.com, told the Securities Daily reporter: "The momentum for the rise in crude oil prices in the short term is weaker than before. But in the medium and long term, oil-producing countries Saudi Arabia and the UAE have plans to expand production, but the traditional oil field development and production cycle is long, and the supply of new crude oil is limited; due to rising costs, etc. Influenced by the influence of the United States, the long-term capacity of US shale oil to increase production is limited; European and American energy companies are reducing crude oil production toward green energy; Iran has high uncertainty. Therefore, international oil prices still have long-term upward action. "Kang Daozhi, chairman of
Daozhi Investment, analyzed the future trend of international oil prices from a technical perspective. He told Securities Daily reporter: "NYMEXWTI crude oil futures have risen many times but failed. Yesterday's decline has touched the downward edge of wide fluctuations in two months. If the daily line continues to fall down and effectively breaks through the 60-day moving average, crude oil may form a deeper decline, otherwise it will continue to look for directions in the volatile trend."
Xiao Yu believes that "From the fundamental point of view, the supply side can still provide certain support for oil prices. Platts Energy's survey shows that the supply gap in OPEC+ in April was as high as 2.59 million barrels per day, and international crude oil futures still maintain a certain degree of reverse structure, and spot shortage; in addition, foreign refined oil supply is in short supply, and the rising cracking data will also provide support for international oil prices. It is expected that ICE Brent crude oil futures will still have support in the US$95/barrel-100/barrel area."
When talking about the impact of the decline in oil prices on the industrial chain, Kang Daozhi said: "The decline in oil prices is a good thing for petrochemicals, aviation, ocean transportation and other sectors.Due to the decrease in production costs of refineries and other petrochemical companies that use oil as the raw materials, they can expand their profit margins while the sales price remains unchanged. For civil aviation companies or ocean shipping companies, because crude oil accounts for a large amount of transportation costs, the decline in oil prices will directly reduce costs and increase revenue. ”
(edited by Qiao Chuanchuan)
