Wilxin Daily Comment·׀ The US economy resilience helps the US dollar to be strong
RMB hit a 14-year low against the US dollar
September 28, 2022 Weixin Investment Consulting Research Center
Chief Analyst Yang Yijun
On Tuesday, the international spot gold price opened at US$1621.85, with a high of US$1642.42 and a low of US$1621.30, closing at US$1628.83, up US$6.45, an increase of 0.4%. The -day K-line showed a small positive line of shock and rebound.
index opened at 114.12 points on Tuesday, with a high of 114.48 points and a low of 113.33 points, closing at 114.16 points, up 40 points, an increase of 0.04%. The daily K-line fluctuated at a high cross-positive.
Gold prices rebounded on Tuesday with obvious characteristics. Asia rebounded weakly in the early trading session as gold prices closed weakly against related market guidance on Monday. Gold prices broke out from the early Asian lows before the opening of the United States, and once exceeded US$20 in the early trading. However, based on the dynamic trading of unilateral rebound, the actual weakness was obvious. There is no 15-minute cycle positive K-line above US$3, and the US dollar corresponding to a strong fluctuation and softening.
Since the rebound of gold prices before the US market actually took a significant weight, it is not surprising that gold prices in the US market have weakened again.
In the early Asian session on Wednesday (today), the US dollar became stronger, and then explored the 20-year high that the pound rose sharply on Monday morning. The gold price correspondingly softened to a stage low near US$1,620.
It is worth mentioning that today's offshore RMB hit a 14-year low against the US dollar against the US dollar, with a lowest drop of 7.2275 points:
When we were longing gold in the early stage, we emphasized that RMB exchange rate will bring a good long safety margin, so even when the gold price breaks the stop loss in the middle of the month, the maximum floating loss was only 4.5%, while the wave and short-term trend in the first and second quarters brought more than 20% profit margin. As for risk control strategies, we basically recommend that the 3x leverage operation of the gold market in the past two years is appropriate, and we are currently taking the initiative to take the initiative to take action again. Before the festival, we tend to be bearish, but we are cautious in short selling. The main strategy is to wait for the long opportunity that may appear soon.
Although the international gold price fell sharply in recent months, the RMB gold price fell slightly. In the figure, A-XAU RMB spot gold price is designed by the author based on the correlation between the international gold price and the RMB exchange rate. The opening and closing reference to the international spot gold price time is different from the Shanghai Gold Exchange TD and Shanghai Futures Exchange gold day K-line patterns, but the html April K-line pattern is highly consistent.
Recently, a series of European and American economic data showed that the euro zone and the UK economy were declining faster than expected, while the corresponding US economic data was significantly better than expected, indicating that the US economy has better resilience to resist the impact of the continued strengthening of the US dollar. In this context, it is difficult to accurately locate the strong end point of the US dollar.
The latest US dollar index's annual dynamic growth rate is exactly about 20%. If the increase can be locked at the end of the year, the US dollar index will record the largest annual increase in 52 years since the author's statistics.
The latest year, the RMB fell by 13.69%, the euro fell by 16.03%, the yen fell by 25.78%, and the pound fell by 21.22%.
On Tuesday, the highlight of the economic data was the performance of the US real estate market, which was similar to last week and mid-month data, both better than expected, which created good conditions for the strong continued or repeated US dollar in the stage. Of course, the economic data in the US stage is better than expected, and it is difficult to change the long-term economic trend dilemma. For example, the annual rate of the unseasonally adjusted housing price index in 20 major cities in the United States:
The annual rate of the housing price index in 20 major cities in the United States fell faster than expected, with an expected 17%, and the actual data was 16.1%. Although the housing price trend seems to have shown a significant decline, the absolute annual rate of 16.1% is still very high, about twice the annual rate of the US CPI price index, so the actual spot real estate profit is still very considerable.
The decline in housing price data only reflects the market cooling, which is different from the concept of market decline and recession. The annual rate of housing prices is approaching zero, which is the signal that the housing market tends to decline.
On Tuesday, the United States sold 685,000 new homes in August, far higher than the expected 500,000 and 511,000 in July:
data chart comparison is not difficult to see that the market originally expected new home sales to continue to decline in August, but the actual rebound was strong. New home sales expectations are clearly referenced to last week's existing home sales data. That is, the market believes that new home sales in August may be reflected in a slight decline like existing home sales data. For example, the chart of existing home sales and new home starts in the United States released on September 21:
After the US new home sales data that exceeded expectations yesterday was released, it is not difficult for us to understand why the US new home starts in August released on September 21 rebounded. Good sales of new houses will of course stimulate real estate developers' willingness to start new houses.
In addition, as the United States' price index fell from highs for two consecutive months, consumer confidence is also rebounding. As shown in the American Consultative Chamber of Commerce's consumer confidence index:
Tuesday data showed that the U.S. consumer confidence index , current status index, and expected index were all far better than expected, and there was a rebound. Like the data of the US real estate market, mid-month price index, and ISM managers at the beginning of the month, it reflects that the current US economy has stronger resistance to softness and better resistance to the strong impact of the US dollar than Europe.
In this context, although we believe that the systemic crisis of US stock is far from being lifted, we also need to pay attention to the phased or medium-term risks of continuing to short US stocks.
gold and silver market, ETFs continue to reduce their positions, demonstrating the low market sentiment. On September 27, the world's largest gold listed trading fund (ETF) SPDR Gold Trust gold holdings fell by 2.61 tons to 940.86 tons, and 3.76 tons on the 26th; the world's largest silver ETF fund iShares Silver Trust (SLV), the world's largest silver ETF fund, decreased by 20.06 tons on September 27.
Currently, the dynamic decline in gold prices this year is 11.2%, the largest annual decline since 2014. However, compared with the largest annual increase in the US dollar index in 52 years of about 20%, the performance of gold market is not too disappointing. Once the US dollar index cycle reaches its peak, the gold market, which shows resistance to declines compared to the US dollar index, will surely be in full swing.
