Abstract:
1, Last week, the market hit a new low in stages under the disturbance of multiple factors. However, A-shares did have opportunities to fall, and the risk premiums of each index mostly returned to the level at the end of April. In addition to the Science and Technology Innovation Board and the Small and Medium Cap, the PE valuations of other indexes are also close. The current market is indeed facing domestic public health incidents, the economy, overseas liquidity, and international relations pressure, and may still need to wait for the opportunity for these factors to improve. When the market is low, you can consider fixed investment or buying on dips in the medium and long term optimistic directions.
2. Against the backdrop of Sino-US friction, the independent and controllable sector has paid a lot of attention recently. Specifically, the first is the domestic substitution of the chip industry chain, mainly focusing on front-end core materials such as silicon wafers and photoresist, as well as high-value lithography, etching, thin film deposition equipment, etc.; the second is the independent control of Xinchuang, especially CPUs and operating systems with low domestic production rates. Compared with the new energy sector, the chip and computer sectors are relatively uncrowded tracks for institutional holdings.
3. In addition, there was another news over the weekend. The first batch of machine tool ETFs in China, the Cathay CSI Machine Tool ETF, just completed the material acceptance on September 16 and was immediately approved on September 18. Among high-end machine tools, my country's domestic production rate is less than 10%, and it still depends on overseas imports, which is a new goal of domestic production substitution. In recent years, many departments have successively issued policies to support and regulate the development of the machine tool industry. Since 2018, the United States has implemented a trade embargo on China's high-end manufacturing equipment, especially high-end CNC machine tools, providing opportunities for my country's domestic replacement of high-end machine tools. Interested friends can pay attention to the subsequent issuance of machine tool ETFs.
official text:
market fell significantly last week, and the main indexes all hit new stage lows. The Shanghai Composite Index, Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, and ChiNext Index fell 3.37%, 2.60% and 6.17% in a single week, respectively. The US CPI data released in the middle of the week showed that although the US Ch PI fell year-on-year, it still exceeded expectations. The ease of inflation by the decline in oil prices was offset by the rise in housing costs, food prices and health care service prices.
Therefore, after the data was released, the market believed that the possibility of US raising interest rates by 75 basis points at the weekly meeting of this increased significantly, and even the possibility of raising interest rates by 100 basis points was seen. Major global stock indexes generally fell. The US dollar index also rose significantly, with the highest offshore and onshore exchange rates of the RMB breaking through 7. The short-term pressure on northbound capital outflows was relatively high, with net outflows of last week of .
Source: Wind
For A-shares, the market's interpretation of encouraging lowering of financial service fees is negative, the one-day tour of real estate purchase restrictions in some second-tier cities is relaxed, and the US and European bills are aimed at China's new energy industry chain, etc., which have caused disturbances. The good news is that the overall improvement of major economic indicators in August, and the growth rate of industry, investment, consumption and other sub-items has accelerated compared with July. The results of the September interest rate meeting of
will be released next Thursday. Before this, the related data that basically affected decisions basically did not affect the decision. Judging from the probability of interest rate hike calculated using the 30-day short-term federal fund futures price listed by CME Group, the probability of interest rate hike of 75bp has exceeded 80%. If there is no accident, this part of the risk is expected to be gradually released.
Source: CME Group
In addition, A-shares have indeed fallen opportunities, and the risk premiums of each index mostly return to the level at the end of April. In addition to the Science and Technology Innovation Board and Small and Medium Cap, PE valuations are also close. The current market is indeed facing domestic public health incidents, the economy, overseas liquidity, and international relations pressure, and may still need to wait for the opportunity for these factors to improve. When the market is low, you can consider fixed investment or buying on dips in the medium and long term optimistic directions.
In the context of Sino-US friction, the independent and controllable sector has paid a lot of attention recently. Specifically, the first is the domestic substitution of the chip industry chain, mainly focusing on front-end core materials such as silicon wafers and photoresist, as well as high-value lithography, etching, thin film deposition equipment, etc.; the second is the independent control of Xinchuang, especially CPUs and operating systems with low domesticization rates.
For the chip industry, downstream consumer electronics demand is relatively weak. On the weekend, there was another news that "no one wants to pay 100 yuan for iPhone 14", and short-term demand is uncertain. However, the general trend of domestic substitution in chip equipment, materials and other links is an investment opportunity with great room for medium and long-term growth. Judging from the semi-annual report, the equipment factory has sufficient orders in hand, and the contract liabilities maintain a high growth rate. At present, the domestic production rate is mostly low. In terms of materials, it is just in its infancy and various domestic manufacturers are beginning to emerge. You can pay attention to the chip ETF (512760) (see for details "Chips continue to be short, short, long and long" ).
In terms of the information innovation sector, there are mainly some new trends recently. The progress of information innovation in the two major information industries of finance and operators has accelerated, and several rounds of pilot work have been completed. The overall progress is expected to start this year. The comprehensive information creation of the Party and the government has been launched, and the investment in informationization is mainly domestic, and the start time is expected to be within the year. You can pay attention to computer ETF (512720) and software ETF (515230).
Compared with the new energy sector, the chip and computer sectors are relatively uncrowded institutional holdings. Especially the computer sector, which has been adjusted for more than 2 years, and the low valuation provides a high safety margin; the bidding pace, delivery and repayment progress of projects under the second quarter of public health incident has slowed down, the performance in the third quarter is expected to be restored, and the fund holding ratio is expected to rebound.
There was another news over the weekend. The first batch of machine tool ETFs in China, Cathay CSI Machine Tool ETF, just completed the material acceptance on September 16 and was immediately approved on September 18. Such a fast approval speed also shows that the country attaches great importance to the development of the high-end manufacturing field.
machine tool refers to the machine used to manufacture machines, also known as "working mother machine" or "power machine". The variety, quality and processing efficiency of machine tools directly affect the production and technical level of other mechanical products. Therefore, the modernization level and scale of the machine tool industry are one of the important symbols of the national industrial development level.
The domestic production rate of Chinese enterprises in mid- and low-end machine tools reached 65% and 82% respectively. However, among high-end machine tools, my country's domestic production rate is less than 10%, and it still depends on overseas imports, which is a new goal of domestic replacement. The weakness of basic parts, processes and materials has further hindered the progress of the localization of high-end machine tools in my country.
In recent years, many departments have successively issued policies to support and standardize the development of the machine tool industry, especially development guidelines for high-end fields such as CNC machine tools. In addition, since 2018, the US and five countries have implemented a trade embargo on China's high-end manufacturing equipment, especially high-end CNC machine tools, providing opportunities for domestic replacement of high-end machine tools in my country. Interested friends can pay attention to the subsequent issuance of machine tool ETFs.
html ml4
Finally, the most popular ETF diagram
html l3
Today is like this, it's white ~
~
2
Risk warning
Investors should fully understand the difference between regular fund investment and zero deposit and withdrawal. Regular fixed-quota investment is a simple and easy way to guide investors to make long-term investments and average investment costs. However, regular fixed-quota investment cannot avoid the inherent risks of fund investment, cannot guarantee investors' returns, and is not an equivalent financial management method that replaces savings.
Whether it is a stock ETF/LOF fund, it is a securities investment fund product with high expected risks and expected returns, and its expected returns and expected risks are higher than those of mixed funds, bond funds and money market funds.
Fund assets invested in the Science and Technology Innovation Board and the ChiNext Stocks will face unique risks caused by differences in investment targets, market systems and trading rules, and investors will be reminded of attention.
sector/fund short-term rise and fall is only used as an auxiliary material for the analysis of the article and is for reference only and does not constitute a guarantee of fund performance.
The short-term performance of individual stocks mentioned in the article is for reference only and does not constitute stock recommendations, nor does it constitute a prediction and guarantee for fund performance.
The above views are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice or commitment. If you need to purchase related fund products, please pay attention to the relevant regulations on investor suitability management, conduct risk assessments in advance, and purchase fund products with risk levels that match them based on your own risk tolerance. Funds are risky, so be cautious when investing.
