Look at the news Knews reporter Ren Meixing Lv Ziwen (internship)
2022-01-04 13:54
Since the spread of the epidemic to the world, chips have experienced large-scale global shortages due to supply chain breakage and production stagnation, and this "chip shortage" crisis coexisted with opportunities. According to a report released by Euler Hermes Insurance Credit Company on Monday local time, chip manufacturers have become one of the biggest profiters during the epidemic, and the semiconductor industry will continue to strengthen in 2022.
Julianyi analysts said: "Since the industry recovered from the worst recession in 2019, the current semiconductor industry has been making every effort to develop and expand." The latest report of
WSTS (World Semiconductor Trade Statistics Organization) predicts that the world's semiconductor industry revenue will reach US$552.96 billion in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 25.6%, while the forecast growth rate at the beginning of the year was only 8.4%. Julianyi analysts predict that semiconductor sales are expected to continue to grow by 9% next year and exceed $600 billion for the first time in 2022.
Although global wafer foundry companies are striving to expand their production capacity to meet market demand, it is difficult to find a balance point for supply and demand. The months-long shortage of semiconductor has affected a variety of industries around the world, including autonomous vehicles, game consoles, 5G, AI, etc. Now that the global economy has recovered and rebounded from the epidemic, the unprecedented retaliatory consumption growth has made it difficult for corporate production to keep up, and has curbed the development of the industry.
Major wafer foundry companies around the world such as TSMC have chosen to expand production, but the production capacity usually takes several years to release. Global Foundry Giant TSMC 2330.TW has mastered the key technologies of cutting-edge digital equipment and weapons, leading the most advanced semiconductor manufacturing business. According to industry insiders, TSMC accounts for more than 90% of global chip production. TSMC's Taiwan-listed stock has soared more than 80% in about two years.
At present, three factors have led to explosive growth in the chip industry: the "extremely strong demand" of consumer electronic products such as personal computers and smartphones; prices have risen due to tight supply; and the launch of new generation chips with higher prices, and the product portfolio of semiconductors has been further improved.
Looking ahead to 2022, analysts believe that as demand growth normalizes and new production capacity accelerates expansion and release, these three factors that lead to strong growth in the semiconductor market will ease.
"I think the chip crisis slowed significantly in the first half of this year. We have begun to see this in the supply chain, which will significantly improve the main supply problems in the autonomous driving industry, especially the electric car ." Dan Ives, an analyst at the investment bank Wedbush, said that the autonomous driving industry will reverse the headwind of 2021 to the smooth sailing situation in the next year. "We believe that the green wave in the next decade will cost $5 trillion, which is the biggest change in the automotive industry since the 1950s."
Although the autonomous driving industry is suffering from semiconductor shortages and global supply chain blockages, Tesla (TSLA) has become one of the biggest winners in the industry. Analysts estimate Musk's electric vehicle manufacturing company's automobile production increased by about 80% in 2021 compared with 2020, the fastest annual output growth rate since 2018. According to IHS Markit data, global automobile production has increased by only about 1% compared with last year, down 15% from 2019, under the severe impact of supply chain disruptions.
industry executives and consultants said that Tesla is superior to many other competitors in adapting to global semiconductor shortages due to its internal software engineering capabilities.
However, in addition to the promising prospects, analysts believe there are risks. First, the sales and demand for hardware (computers, TVs and other products) are gradually cooling and returning to normalization, which may bring a blow to industrial development beyond expectations. Second, supply chain disruptions and slow production continue, which will curb the growth of the industry. Third, the United States may continue to restrict semiconductor companies from selling key technology products to China.
