Use history to understand the present. Is the rebound of BTChtml January line level about to end?
volume price comparison first, and the importance of trading volume research is self-evident. The above figure is the BTC monthly trend, and the volume smooth moving average line below is the same. This indicator is used to measure the development trend of quantity energy and is a quantity energy trend indicator.
can be seen in the figure that the index's fast and slow line has been high at dead cross . Once a dead cross appeared in the previous history, there will often be a wave of monthly short rebounds in the next month. In October 2014, June 2018, March 2020 and February 2022, the same rebounded in the following March and the monthly line closed positive. It has just entered April. After the dead cross rebound in 2014 and 2018, BTC continued the previous short trend and continued to bottom out , indicating that this is just a phased rebound in the bear market process.
. After the 2020 dead fork rebounded, BTC continued to rebound upward. It can be seen from the figure that the index itself is at a relatively low level, and it is currently a high dead fork, which is similar to 2014 and 2018. In March 2020, it experienced a wave of big drops and wash-ups. In 2020, BTC production was also reduced by half a year. After the big drop in March, the positive line in April reversed, which is different from the current situation. The recent monthly rebound and closing line has not been able to stand above the top and bottom of this round of top and bottom 0.5-0.618 (48000-52000) retracement line, so we must be prepared to fall back again after the rebound is repaired, and do not blindly chase highs.
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