According to Taiwan's " Zhongshi Electronic News ", because after the "nine-in-one" election on the island, the second wave of "legislator" by-election will be held on March 16, which is regarded as an outpost for the 2020 Taiwan leadership election. According to the polls of Taiwan's Want Want China Media Group on the "Legislator" by-election areas of New Taipei and Tainan, with the support of "Korean Wave", the Kuomintang reversed and won both of these two "deep green iron vote areas". If Kinmen and Changhua seats are both relatively stable constituencies in the blue camp, the Kuomintang has the opportunity to win them all, and the Democratic Progressive Party's by-election four seats may be wiped out.
Kaohsiung Mayor Kuo Yu This Saturday, this year, I went to Tainan City to assist the Kuomintang candidate Xie Longjie , and then went to New Taipei City Sanchung District to stand up for the Kuomintang candidate Zheng Shiwei. The scene was grand and it attracted great popularity.
In Tainan City, Xie Longjie himself is well-known, and with the support of "Korean Wave", according to the Want Want Zhongshi poll, Xie Longjie surpassed the DPP candidate Guo Guowen with 34.9% support, and Chen Xiaoyu, who runs for election with 11.9%. Obviously, the division of the "green camp" is also the reason why Guo Guowen is in danger.
New Taipei Sanchong was also a "Celtic Army Iron Policies", and DPP candidate Yu Tian was elected as a "legislator" in Sanchong, and he was also well-known. However, after Han Kuo-yu helped build momentum, the poll began to rise, and now led Yu Tian's 33.2% with 39.3%.
The most critical part of the "legislator" by-election is the turnout. Polls show that the "Blue Army" is very enthusiastic about voting. 70.3% of the Tainan part said they would definitely vote, and 18.4% might vote; on the other hand, only 58% of the Tainan "Green" said they would definitely vote, and 22.5% might vote; the New Taipei part is evenly matched, and 44.7% of the "Blue Army" would definitely vote, and 25.8% might vote, and 55.3% might vote, and 26.5% might vote. The turnout rate in the two districts is currently estimated to be about 60%.
From the age cross-analysis, Xie Longjie surpassed Guo Guowen in all age groups, and performed well in the young voters. 37.4% supported him from the age of 20 to 29, while Guo Guowen was only 25.9%. In terms of political parties, Guo Guowen only received 59.4% of the support of "pan-green", while Xie Longjie received 80.7% of the support of "pan-green", and the "Celtic Army" was obviously severely divided.
In the Sanchong of New Taipei City, Zheng Shiwei is particularly supported by middle-aged people. He won Yutian from the age of 40 to 69, especially between 50 and 59 years old. Zheng won 27.1% of Yutian with 50.3%; Yutian has a higher support in young people and the elderly over 70 years old, and Yutian has a higher support in 37.2% of Zheng Shiwei's 20.0% of him.
summary, New Taipei or Tainan were both "green camp iron votes" in the past. The Kuomintang has never won after the restructuring of the "legislator" constituency in 2008, but due to the struggle of the "green camp" factional and the blessing of "Korean wave", the situation of the "Blue Army" is highly optimistic. The DPP did not launch a candidate in the Kinmen constituency. The former county speaker Hong Liping recruited by the Kuomintang was stable in the election. In addition, the first constituency in Changhua was originally the Blue Army territory. Ke Chengfang, nominated by the Kuomintang, was optimistic about the situation, and the DPP was in danger of annihilation of the entire army.
The poll visit date was from February 22 to 23. 1,006 people were sampled in Tainan and 1,007 people were sampled in New Taipei. At the 95% confidence level, the sampling error was plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
(edited by Schmonna)
