last week showed that the U.S. manufacturing output index in June fell below the watershed of 50 for the first time in two years, and the initial value of the service industry PMI hit a five-month low. The economic indicators for measuring US economic growth "collapsed" one after another, and another new indicator "seamlessly connected" this Monday.
On June 27, Eastern Time, the Dallas Fed released the overall corporate activity index of Texas Manufacturing Survey in June, plunged from -7.3 in May to -17.7, the lowest point since May 2020, and the index value is also far inferior to the market's expectations -3.1.
The monthly Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey conducted by the Dallas Fed is to conduct a timely assessment of factory activities in the state. Its sub-data includes: capacity utilization, new orders, raw material payment prices, shipment, finished product prices, and employment index. Since Texas manufacturing exports account for a large proportion of U.S. manufacturing exports, and manufacturing is the leading industry in the U.S. economy, the Dallas Fed's manufacturing index has also been used as an indicator to reflect the U.S. economic trends.
In addition, the Dallas Fed's orders, shipments and production indicators have also dropped to their lowest levels since the beginning of the epidemic. new order sub-index fell from 19.8 to 3.3, raw material price sub-indexed from 61.8 to 57.5, and employment sub-indexed from 20.9 to 15.2. The indicator for measuring expected corporate activity in the next six months fell to -26, the lowest since April 2020. However, it is worth noting that although inflation and wage indicators have declined in the survey, they are still at high levels.
The respondents who were surveyed this time said that The "over-dependence on imports" of the US manufacturing industry, the sudden increase in raw material costs caused by high inflation, excessive regulation, and the Biden administration's energy policies constitute the "difficulty" encountered in the manufacturing industry at present. As the respondents said:
You can't ignore the economic fundamentals that lead to a possible recession, and the Biden administration is either stubborn or paralyzed like a deer under a headlight.
The government's excess expenditure and transfer projects have inflated the money supply while also leading to unrestricted corruption and waste. We will put generations into this bill, what a huge waste of resources and missed opportunities.
Two years after this disaster, we are lucky to have a job.
The collapse of multiple macro data in the United States indicates that the US economy is facing the risk of recession. On the one hand, there are concerns about the US inflation at a 40-year high, and on the other hand, there are concerns about the slowdown in corporate profit growth, the overall U.S. economy slowing down or even recession. Although US stocks rebounded last week, and the S&P 500 3.1% increase on Friday also hit the largest single-day increase in more than two years, investors are still "touched" and hope to know whether the US stocks that rebounded this time are really serious. After the
survey was released, the ICE US dollar index fell by more than 0.4%, setting a low since June 16 to 103.67.
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