Recently, Russia's Medvedev said in an interview with reporters that under four special circumstances, Russia may use nuclear weapon . First, Russia encountered a nuclear strike against by , and Russia retaliated against the other side and its allies. Second, Russia's allies were hit by nuclear attacks, and Russia wanted to help retaliate. Third, if someone strikes on key facilities of Russian nuclear forces, even with conventional weapons, it will be regarded as the beginning of the nuclear war . Fourth, other behaviors that threaten the survival of Russian states. Medvedev then comforted the reporter and said that these situations have not happened yet and that the Russian-Ukrainian war is not suitable for the use of nuclear weapons.
's speech is very balanced, but the sharpness is still very sharp. When Russia talks about this issue, it already shows that there are concerns that nuclear war has become a reality. Medvedev's meaning is very obvious, giving Europe and the United States a strong heart. Now we need to leave some room for each other, but don't let Russia fail, otherwise Russia will be desperate if it is in a hurry. And it is clear that it is not at that level now, and it is also to say that Russia does not use nuclear weapons at present, which is enough to cope with the situation.
This time, the performance of Russia's conventional military strength on the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield, both in terms of equipment level and command system, showed a clear gap with the times. A few days ago, the Russian military's cruise missile hit the reservoir dam in Clifforo, causing 600,000 people in Clifforo to face evacuation due to the rise in the water level of Guretz downstream. The city of Clifforo is not a strategic target. The Russian army's purpose of this strike is tactical, and it is to block the Ukrainian army's crossing the river by creating a flood. Although it did play a certain role in the military, it gave people some sense that it was a bit unstoppable if the Russian army did not use this method, so I learned Chiang Kai-shek 's Gardenkou .
So some people speculate whether Russia will further lower the nuclear threshold, threatening to use tactical nuclear weapon also needs to shock Ukrainian . After all, Russia's military power will save face Putin , otherwise Russia's strategic pillar will fall down quickly.
Under the current circumstances, the United States and Britain also warned Russia last month that if a global nuclear crisis occurs in the future, NATO member states will take collective action.
However, I think both sides have experienced the era of the nuclear madness of the Cold War , and have a complete set of theories and control mechanisms, because the probability of a nuclear war breaking out in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict will not be too high.
is now different from at the end of in World War II. At that time, the United States gave Japan two atomic bomb first experience, because only the United States had nuclear weapons at that time, so there was no need to worry or retaliate at all. Therefore, after bombing Japan, it was only the benefits of establishing its global authority and reducing casualties. Now that nuclear war is played, there is only one result in the death of one another. After forming a terrifying balance, no one has the freedom to cheat unilaterally.
This shows a unique phenomenon in the history of war. You cannot beat the other party to death, and you even consider giving the other party enough face after letting the other party suffer. For example, during the Cuba missile crisis, the US military ship blocked cargo ships transporting Soviet equipment, and generally obstructed diplomatic etiquette while doing the right way. The United States forced Russia to withdraw the missile deployed in Cuba , and the United States itself also had to withdraw the missile from Turkey so that the Soviet leaders could have a step to go. The Soviet Union deliberately added a message to a tough tone to reassure the United States that the missiles deployed in Cuba cannot open fire, so the United States does not need to rush to open fire.
This time, the United States did not dare to really push Russia to a dead end on the Russian-Ukraine issue, so it had to draw a red line for Ukraine and could not use the weapons provided by the United States to attack Russia. Ukraine is now chasing the United States to provide Army tactical missiles with a range of 300 kilometers, allowing Himas to expand its strike range. Biden is really afraid to provide it now.
Therefore, the United States supports Ukraine to fight against Russia, and there will inevitably be some restrictions on space and intensity. Moreover, avoiding nuclear war and only competing for conventional military power will make Russia even more uncomfortable. This is not to use hot fire and light fire.The most difficult thing is Europe and Ukraine, which is sandwiched between the United States and Russia. The longer the war drags on, the heavier their losses will be.
Why so many countries want to have nuclear weapons? Because they have also become forces that cannot be completely offended and do not want to be flowers and plants among big powers.
