According to Taiwan media reports on May 25, Taiwan added 82,363 new local confirmed cases yesterday (24th). In this regard, Li Bingying, a Taiwanese pediatrician who is also the "vaccination group of the Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Consultation Association" of the DPP authorities' health department, believes that it will be more likely to return to normal life in September. However, we should also note whether there will be new mutant strains when they are there. If so, there will be a second and third wave of epidemics. Chen Shizhong, commander of the "Epidemic Command Center", said on the 24th that although the number of local cases has reached more than 80,000, an increase of 24% over Monday, the number of confirmed cases may be due to the holiday effect. However, Chen Shizhong said that the overall trend seems to be relatively stable. But he also admitted that although the epidemic is unlikely to rise all of a sudden, it will definitely grow up.
When the epidemic in Taiwan was at its highest, it exceeded 90,000 on the 19th, but just when all walks of life expectation were about to exceed 100,000, the number of confirmed cases did not rise but fell. Since then, it has maintained around 80,000 per day, without a significant increase, and even fell to 66,000 on the 23rd. The "Double North" area, which has a high number of confirmed cases, did not rush as expected. During this period, Kaohsiung once "overtaken" in Taipei, attracting Kaohsiung Mayor Chen Chi-mai to come forward, saying that Taipei has too many black numbers and inaccurate numbers.
Are there many "selected people" in "Shuangbei"? Taiwanese experts believe that it is not that there are too many "selected people" but that there are too many black people. Experts believe that the epidemic is still in the plateau period and is expected to reach its peak in early June. The so-called "black number" means that the people who test positive for the fast screening did not inform the health unit and chose to live alone and take medicine, resulting in distortion of the numbers.
According to Taiwanese media reports, Huang Gaobin, the "Central District Commander of the Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Medical Network" of the health authorities, believes that the number of confirmed cases in a single day will last between 80,000 and 100,000 for a while, reaching a peak as early as early June. Huang Gaobin said that if the number of cases in a single day does not exceed 90,000 in a single day and even begins to decline, it means that the number of blacks in the "Double North" is beyond imagination. Shi Wenyi, former deputy director of the "Disease Administration", also provided experience judgment. The number of blacks is expanding, especially the "Double North", and it is necessary to examine whether the ratio of moderate to severe illness and death is relatively high.
Taiwan's "China Times News Network" report pointed out that the data estimated by Taiwanese experts in the model have been blurred by the people who "know but don't report". Such people may have no medical needs and no insurance to receive, so they might as well recuperate at home, and there are many, otherwise there is no reason why a bunch of experts' estimates will be slapped in the face.
As for when is it expected to return to normal life? Li Bingying recently mentioned in a radio interview that some views believe that the epidemic will decline in June, and his personal opinion is that "the turning point may indeed occur in June", but it must reach the so-called complete stability and relaxation of epidemic prevention. Judging from overseas experience, it may take about three to four months. In other words, it will only take about September to have a chance, and it is impossible to return to normal in June.
In addition, "TVBS News" reported that Li Bingying also said that it usually takes three or four months from the beginning of epidemic prevention and the outbreak to the end of the epidemic. The epidemic in Taiwan begins in May, and it may slowly decline in July and August, and it will not return to normal until September; however, you should also pay attention to whether there will be new mutant strains when they are there. If so, there will be a second and third wave of epidemics.
