On August 1, 2021, according to the traditional timing method of China's air-conditioning industry, the 2022 freezing year (hereinafter referred to as the Cold Year) officially began. China's air conditioning compressor industry ushered in a new cold year with nearly 240 million units in the cold year of 2021 and its monthly displacement production that has declined for three consecutive months. This year will be a new starting point for an era.
What kind of new starting point is this?
First, with the drastic changes in the global trade pattern and the continued COVID-19 pandemic, the Chinese air-conditioning industry, which has stable production and rapid technological innovation, has established a leading position in the global home air-conditioning and refrigeration industry. This is the first year that China's air conditioning industry has truly "standing on the roof of the world".
Secondly, as China's total annual production capacity of rotor air conditioning compressors moves to a record of 300 million units, it is obvious to the naked eye, the total production capacity of China's rotor air conditioning compressors will account for 95% of the world's global proportion, which is equivalent to all rotor air conditioning compressors being produced in China. This is the first year to establish China's rotor air-conditioning compressor "takes the world".
Third, with the end of the transition period for the implementation of new energy efficiency standards for air conditioners in China, all air conditioners with old energy efficiency standards will be delisted. This is the first year that variable frequency air conditioning completely occupy the Chinese air conditioning market.
Fourth, with President Xi Jinping announcing China's commitment to carbon peak and carbon neutrality, "dual carbon" quickly became the keyword in China's next stage of development. For China's air conditioning industry, this is the first year that "dual carbon" has comprehensively affected the development of the industry.
So, for this rotor air-conditioning compressor industry, which has a relatively stable industrial structure and a huge scale, how can we achieve new breakthroughs from a new starting point?
#1
comprehensive frequency conversion, finally came true
Two years ago, industry observers were still lamenting that the market share of frequency converter compressors was not enough. Industry insiders have repeatedly reminded relevant compressor companies to quickly increase the production capacity of frequency converter compressors; a year ago, when the new energy efficiency standard for household air conditioners was officially implemented, the frequency converter was changed. The sales of air conditioning compressors accounted for only more than 50% of the entire 2021 cold year; during the production process of 2021 cold year, some household air conditioning machine companies are still gambled to produce low-end fixed-speed models, trying to harvest the low-end market that was relatively out of stock in the first half of the 2021 cold year. This not only objectively slowed down the increase in the market share of variable frequency air conditioning, but also made the total sales share of variable frequency air conditioning compressors in 2021 cold year not reach 70% as expected.
This situation has completely ended with the end of the transition period for the new energy efficiency standards for household air conditioners. Almost 100% of the domestically sold household air conditioners in 2022 are inverter air conditioners. This also means that all air conditioning compressors for domestic sales, except for products for heat pump water heaters, heat pump clothes dryers, refrigeration and refrigeration, etc., are all products of air conditioning compressors for frequency conversion.
, a very clear change a year ago, has caused several major air-conditioning compressor companies to strive to increase the production proportion of frequency converter compressors. 60% of GMCC's 85 million domestically sold products in 2021 are inverter models. Obviously, this proportion has increased significantly in the 2022 cold year, which is also an important reason why GMCC wants to add a new frequency converter air-conditioning production line in Wuhu.
Haili was trapped by the bottleneck of the insufficient proportion of frequency conversion products a few years ago. With the full relocation and smooth operation of the Nanchang factory,Haili finally increased the sales proportion of frequency conversion products to 50% at the end of the 2020 cold year, and increased to 60% at the end of the 2021 cold year.
Among domestic brands, AVIC Sanyo was the leader in frequency conversion products when its equity did not change many years ago. After integration, production line adjustment and expansion, product modification and iteration, it finally ushered in an opportunity when the demand for frequency conversion models exploded. After increasing the sales of variable frequency models to 80% in the 2020 cold year, AVIC Sanyo will convert all its products into variable frequency models in 2021 cold year, becoming the domestic brand with the highest proportion of variable frequency models at the beginning of the 2022 cold year.
In comparison, in addition to Panasonic Manbao and Mitsubishi Electric themselves, the proportion of frequency conversion models of some air-conditioning compressor brands such as Ruizhi is still relatively low, and it faces considerable pressure to transform domestic sales in the cold year of 2022.
#2
The increasing technology demand
For the air conditioning industry in China that has led the world, further improving the performance of core components, including compressors, is an important development need. In this regard, the R&D end of household air conditioning machines is very clear. In the future, there will be three aspects of the technology improvement needs for compressors - high energy efficiency, low noise, and miniaturization.
The direct impact of carbon peak and carbon neutrality on the household air conditioning industry is precisely reflected in higher energy efficiency levels and smaller product volumes.
For this demand, targeted products from multiple air-conditioning compressor companies have been released. Taking GMCC as an example, the independent compression second-generation compressor, which was vigorously promoted in the 2021 cold year, uses disruptive innovative technologies to develop a new high-energy-efficient and high-capacity slide compressor that uses rotary + reciprocating slide cavity. The compressor only uses one cylinder, and some of the same cylinders are used for rotary compression and the other is used for reciprocating compression, which can reduce the compressor power consumption while improving heat exchange efficiency and achieve the effect of intelligently optimizing the system performance. In the end, the performance improvement of household air conditioners is greatly improved by 11.3% and the heating capacity is increased by 20%. At the same time, this technology also realizes the compactness and miniaturization of the compressor.
Take Panasonic Wanbao as an example. Based on the excellent performance of its variable frequency conversion product, the 2021 cold year has improved the variable frequency high-efficiency compressor that supports the new energy efficiency level 1 standard at the fastest speed. At the same time, Panasonic Wanbao's new technology to reduce resonance has also won the recognition of customers.
In fact, in addition to the technical demand for high energy efficiency, low noise and miniaturization, due to the continued rise in raw material prices, aluminum copper has also become an important demand in the field of air conditioning compressors. In this regard, aluminum wire compressors have once again entered the industry's vision, but at present, except for GMCC, which said that mass-produced aluminum wire compressors with low cost, good reliability and stable quality in the 2021 cold year, other brands are still waiting and watching for aluminum wire compressors. The manufacturing stability and operating reliability of aluminum wire compressors have not been recognized by the entire industry yet.
#3
Light commercial use has become a must-fight place, and the demand for special models has soared
Since Haili devoted himself to the development of domestic high-power rotor air-conditioning compressors a few years ago, breaking through the limitations of cooling capacity and expanding the light commercial (hereinafter referred to as light commercial) market has become the common strategic goal of rotor air-conditioning compressor companies.
This common strategic goal has inspired various compressor companies to develop high-power rotor air-conditioning compressors. In the cold year of 2020, the sales of rotor air-conditioning compressors in the 3HP~7HP cooling section still increased by more than 40% year-on-year, and the sales growth of rotor air-conditioning compressors in the cold section above 7HP and even nearly 150% year-on-year. In the 2021 cold year, the demand for high-power rotor air conditioning compressors will be further released; in the 3HP~7HP cooling section, the sales of high-power rotor air conditioning compressors have exceeded 80%, almost completely replacing the mainstream scroll compressors in this cooling section a few years ago.
It is worth noting that the light business market is still developing rapidly. Summary data from multiple parties shows that in the first half of 2021, the sales of China's unit machine market increased by more than 25% year-on-year. During the same period, the development of multi-online industries, supported by home improvement, sales increased by more than 40% year-on-year. Among them, the market share of household products exceeds 50%. Judging from the situation after the epidemic recovery, the unit and multi-connection markets closely related to high-power air-conditioning rotor compressors are all in the track of retaliatory growth. This has given many compressor companies the opportunity to expand their sales.
Facing with the light business market, Haili and GMCC have embarked on different paths. Haili first focused on product development in the light commercial market. In 2021, it has mass-produced 16HP rotor frequency converter air conditioning compressors, and in 2022, the 20HP model has been launched. Haili has achieved good results in the light business market. While rapidly expanding the supply of 3HP~7HP rotary air-conditioning compressors,
GMCC has begun to focus on frequency conversion scroll compressors with a capacity of up to 10HP or above. By the end of the cold year of 2021, GMCC has launched frequency conversion models with a single-machine capacity of up to 40HP, expanding the battlefield of commercial compressors to the advantageous areas of brands such as Danfoss.In addition, GMCC's large-displacement scroll compressor has also expanded to applications such as module machines, heat pump heating, and heat pump hot water due to its advantages such as high efficiency, low noise and high reliability.
replaces scroll compressors in the field not only in the light commercial market. In special application fields such as parking air conditioners and base station air conditioners, rotor air conditioners also rapidly increase market share in the face of increased demand. Even in industrial and agricultural fields such as pepper drying and sludge drying, rotor air-conditioning compressors are replacing traditional products such as boilers with functions such as frequency conversion precision temperature control and jet enthalpy increase and low temperature heating.
#4
R32 has become the absolute mainstream, but there are huge hidden worries
If some inverter models of old energy-efficient air conditioners still use R410A refrigerant, then as the entire industry only produces new energy-efficient air conditioners, R32 has almost become the only refrigerant among the current frequency conversion models.
But R32, as a member of HFC substances, is already a foregone conclusion to be controlled and reduce usage in the future. With the formal implementation of the Kigali Amendment in China, controlling and reducing HFC substances, including R32, has been included in the national plan. According to the Kigali Amendment plan, China will freeze HFC consumption below the baseline from 2024, while the baseline year will be from 2020 to 2022. This means that the current consumption of various HFC substances, including R32, is within the baseline year's calculation time. The entire household air conditioning industry is using R32 on a large scale, not only reducing costs, but more importantly, it is to try to expand the baseline value so that R32 can still be used for some time after 2024.
Some industry insiders believe that the country will not interfere in the consumption of HFC substances until the relevant process of R290 has not met the requirements or there are no other better alternatives. Other industry experts believe that as the Kigali amendment is included in the national plan and carbon neutrality will also reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the country will inevitably introduce strong policies to achieve the goal of cutting HFC substances in advance.
Therefore, while using the R32 model, air conditioning compressor companies are increasing the application range of R290 model, including heat pump dryers, mobile air conditioners and other products. In addition, in the face of R32, which may be controlled by the state in advance, air-conditioning compressor companies are still striving to carry out technical research and development reserves on natural working fluids such as CO2.
