Looking at the soaring US dollar during this period, Brother Niu from Hangzhou felt very uncomfortable: after taking US dollars for three or four years, he not only got out of the trap, but also made more profits of the spread, but he didn't expect that he would sell it too early

Qianjiang Evening News·Hourly News Reporter Wang Yanping

Federal Reserve continues to significantly hike Under the background of the continued sharp hike rate hike , the US dollar continues to make rapid progress, and the US dollar index hits a new high since May 2002. Overnight, the US dollar rose another 524 points against offshore RMB , closing at 7.1341, reaching a high of 7.1472, just one step away from the high of 7.1967 in May 2020.

Selling US dollars too early

Hangzhou citizens were very upset

Looking at the soaring US dollars during this period, Brother Niu from Hangzhou felt very uncomfortable: after taking the US dollar for three or four years, he not only got out of the trap, but also earned more points-spread, but he didn't expect that he would sell it too early after miscalculation.

From the end of 2018 to the beginning of 2019, Brother Niu changed $50,000 in succession. "At that time, the US dollar also rose from a low of less than 6.3. Seeing the US dollar rising all the way, I felt a little anxious. Thinking about the future, if I want to use the US dollar, I would exchange 50,000 US dollars. The lowest price was 67,134, which was exchanged for 15,000 US dollars. "

Since the beginning of this year, the same script has been staged again. But what Brother Niu didn't expect was that after a surge in May this year, the US dollar had been sideways for three months. "At that time, there were many different opinions. Some said that the US dollar reached the highest level of 6.9, while others said it would break the '7'. I waited for a while, but I couldn't hold on. I sold 40,000 US dollars around 6.8. In fact, it was just a guaranteed capital."

Unexpectedly, since August 15, the US dollar has once again started a soaring mode. At present, the exchange rate of the US dollar in the bank has risen to 7.14. "According to this price, I have earned nearly 14,000 yuan less for my 40,000 US dollars so far."

also miscalculated. Mr. Jiang’s child is studying in the United States, so Mr. Jiang applied for a foreign currency credit card main and secondary card. Usually, the child swipes a sub-card overseas to spend money, so he uses the credit card main card in Mr. Jiang’s hand to deduct the money.

At the beginning of this year, Mr. Jiang took advantage of the low point of the US dollar to exchange for more than 40,000 US dollars. Thinking that the child could not use that much for consumption for a while, he bought US$20,000 US dollars to manage his financial management. "Although the interest rate was not high at that time, less than 1%, it would not be too late to take it when you want it. At worst, you won't get interest." Mr. Jiang thought.

Later, because the child's expenses for renting a house increased, Mr. Jiang wanted to withdraw the US dollar financial management, but the bank replied that it would take a year to withdraw the US dollar financial management, and now it is impossible to withdraw it in advance. As a result, for children's daily consumption, Mr. Jiang can only repay in RMB at the exchange rate at the time of . "The exchange rate has risen to 7.02 in the latest repayment."

Of course, there are some friends around the reporter. The US dollar that was exchanged at a high level before has finally been unconstrained and has some profits.

This year, the US dollar rose 12% against the RMB

pound and the Japanese yen fell about 20% against the US dollar

0 Compared with the wave of US dollar market two or three years ago, the US dollar appreciates faster this year, which is related to the rare rate hike of the Federal Reserve. From June, July to September this year, the Federal Reserve has raised 75 basis points in three consecutive times, and the 75 basis points rate hike is the largest single rate hike since 1994.

Currently, the Federal Reserve has set a target range of 3% to 3.25%, higher than major economies around the world. Before the end of this year, the Federal Reserve has two interest rate meetings. According to the interest rate dot chart disclosed after the Fed's September interest rate meeting, more than half of the Fed's officials expect interest rates to reach 4.25% to 4.5% by the end of this year, which means there is still a 125 basis points increase, reaching the 4.25% to 5% range next year, and it will not begin to gradually cut interest rates until 2024.

In fact, the United States is using the hegemony of the US dollar in global currencies to "harvest" the whole world: it stimulates the economy through a large amount of dollars when the economy is poor; and a considerable part of these dollars flows to the world, the inflation cost is paid by the world. When the US economy recovers or the US's domestic inflation is high, it will attract global capital back through tightening policies such as interest rate hikes, causing other currencies to continue to depreciate, and the assets of other countries will also depreciate accordingly. The United States takes the opportunity to get a bargain.

Since the beginning of this year, the cumulative increase of the US dollar against the offshore RMB has reached 12.09%. The euro has fallen below the 0.97 mark against the US dollar, and the depreciation against the US dollar has reached 14.79% this year. The depreciation of the pound against the US dollar this year is nearly 20%, reaching 19.83%.The exchange rate of the pound against the US dollar has fallen to 1.0848:1 and is moving towards 1:1. The US dollar rose by more than 20% against the Japanese yen, reaching 24.54%.

The Russian-Ukrainian conflict further led to global safe-haven funds leaving Europe, a considerable number of which returned to the United States. However, compared with other currencies, the RMB is relatively strong among the major currencies around the world. Although it depreciates against the US dollar, this does not hinder the attractiveness of RMB assets to global investors. Recently, two orders with 10 billion yuan have been launched in China one after another, which is quite telling the problem.