According to relevant media reports, on September 21, four states in Ukraine that have been conquered by Russia will hold a referendum on "joining Russia" in the territory of . Some analysts said that this is an escalating action taken by Russian President Putin to the situation in Russia and Ukraine after facing a military defeat; if this move is successful, then Russia is very likely to completely reverse the current adverse situation.
Regarding the results of the referendum on the entry of Russia in four Ukraine states, the outside world generally believes that there is not much suspense, and the referendum on Russia has basically become a foregone conclusion. For such practices, Russia actually used them in the Crimea incident in 2014. In the end, Crimea successfully submitted a referendum to Russia, and Russia itself has already regarded Crimea as its territory. Once the four Ukraine states successfully referendums to Russia, Russia will also legally confirm that these four states are their own territory and take further actions in the situation in Russia and Ukraine.
So what actions will Putin take after these four states referendums to Russia? It is generally believed that Putin is very likely to conduct a full-scale military mobilization in Russia, and Russia will also formally declare war on Ukraine.
As we all know, Russia has never admitted that this Russian-Ukrainian conflict is a foreign war. Putin once claimed that this is just a "special military operation" by Russia against Ukraine. It is also because of this conclusion that Russia has always dispatched militias and contract soldiers in this Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Its large-scale conscripts have basically not been sent to the frontlines of the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield to fight. This has also led to a serious shortage of Russian troops in the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield, which has directly slowed down the Russian army's advancement, and has even experienced serious military failures in the near future.
Once the four Ukrainian states referendum to Russia, Russia will legally confirm that these places are Russia's own territory. If Ukraine counterattacks against Russia, it will be regarded as "invasion" by Russia. By then, Putin can declare war on Ukraine legitimately and conduct a comprehensive military mobilization in Russia to send its large-scale conscripts to the frontlines of the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield to fight. It is reported that Putin has made a lot of preparations behind the scenes in order to promote the formation of this situation. For example, Professor of Renmin University of China and famous military expert Jin Canrong not long ago stated that Putin has carried out large-scale recruitment of in Russia and has initially planned to expand 130,000 people, and all of these people will be put on the battlefields of Russia and Ukraine. By then, the Russian army's military strength on the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield will be greatly enhanced, and Russia will no longer be restrained due to military strength issues.
In addition to this, it is more important that once the four states in Ukraine referendums to Russia, Putin can also legitimately use the nuclear weapon .
Putin has repeatedly stressed that Russia will not use nuclear weapons against Ukraine, but once Russia's national security is seriously threatened, Russia does not rule out the possibility of using nuclear weapons. Once the four Ukrainian states referendums to Russia and Ukraine launches a counterattack against Russia again, this practice can be regarded as an "invasion" in Russia's view, and what Putin once said, "Russia's national security is under serious threat" will be established. At that time, Russia will not rule out the possibility of using nuclear weapons against Ukraine. Although Russia's possibility of using nuclear weapons against Ukraine is very small, because Putin himself knows that once nuclear weapons are used, it will inevitably cause a global disaster, but once Ukraine realizes that Russia has the possibility of using nuclear weapons, it will inevitably create a serious psychological deterrence to the entire Ukrainian high-level, making them afraid to act rashly to avoid a catastrophe. This approach of attracting and not emitting can actually achieve better results.
Therefore, Putin's move to "referendum to Russia" can be said to directly demonstrate his strategic wisdom.If the "referendum to Russia" is successful, Russia can conduct comprehensive military mobilization on the one hand and send larger forces on the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield; on the other hand, Russia has also opened up the legal basis for the use of nuclear weapons, which can form a huge strategic deterrence on Ukraine. At that time, Russia will have more initiative and will most likely completely reverse the current adverse situation on the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield.
