Market research institution NPD DisplaySearch Vice President of Greater China Xie Qinyi pointed out that the panel market conditions should be pretty good (stable) by the first half of next year, because the demand for replacement of emerging markets and the amplification of average size drives the continued growth of demand area and is greater than the supply growth. However, since the gap in shipments between TV panels and TV units has exceeded 10% for two consecutive years, will this cause inventory adjustment problems in the second half of 2015? Worth observing.
According to NPD DisplaySearch survey, the global LCD panel production capacity increased by about 5% in 2013 and 2014, and the area demand increased by 4% and 11% respectively, resulting in a tight supply of LCD panels and a rising quotation in 2014. Panel capacity is estimated to increase by about 6% in 2015, but demand is still estimated to increase by 8%. Overall, panel supply and demand have not yet been imbalanced in 2015. As for the growth of panel demand from 2016 to 2018, it may gradually decrease, reappearing a situation of oversupply. In terms of the average size of
, according to statistics, in recent years, the global average shipment size of LCD TV panels has roughly increased by 1 inch per year. The main driving forces include the launch of new size products, the demand for mobile phone replacement in emerging markets, the decline in TV prices, the launch of thin and LED backlighting or 3D models, and now it has evolved to 4K, curved and smart TVs.
Xie Qinyi believes that based on the global LCD TV shipments in 2015, 255 million units, 267 million units in 2016, 273 million units in 2017, and 278 million units in 2018, and the average size has climbed from 39.5 inches to 41 inches, it is speculated that from 2015 to 2018, the world may need 18 8 generation lines and 30K/month production capacity per seat to meet it. However, since the average monthly films of the 8th generation line are more than 30,000, if we look at the average films of the 60,000, it is necessary to have about 9 seats of the 8th generation line to meet the global LCD TV panel needs.
Overall, Xie Qinyi said that in 2014, the global LCD panel industry showed a situation where demand was greater than supply, and it still seemed that it was short of it in the first half of next year. But in the medium and long term, inventory may be a focus of observation. Because the shipment volume of TV panels and TV complete machines has been more than 10% for two consecutive years, for example, for every 1.1 million TV panels shipped, and only 1 million TV complete machines shipped, this is mainly due to the active stocking of TV brand manufacturers, which hope to seize the market share, and 4K inventory is more. However, the shipment gap will generate inventory, and it is not ruled out that there will be a more obvious supply chain inventory adjustment problem in the second half of 2015.
(MoneyDJ News Reporter Xu Xiaojia Report)
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- Release date November 7, 2014
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