market focused on the decision to make interest rate at the Fed FOMC announced on Wednesday. The consensus is expected to be the third consecutive rate hike at 75 basis points, but the possibility of a larger rate hike at 100 basis points remains 20%. The market's fantasy about the Fed's non-violent interest rate hike is completely shattered.
As mortgage loan interest rates "break 6" and doubled from the beginning of the year, the US real estate market cooled rapidly. In September, the confidence index of housing builders across the United States fell for the ninth consecutive month, with a boom and bust line of less than 50 and the lowest since May 2020, and the lowest since May 2014 after excluding the impact of the epidemic. The decline in housing value in the United States also hit the largest since August 2011.
Japan and the Bank of England will announce monetary policies on Thursday. The market generally expects Japan to maintain a super loose stance, and there are differences on whether the UK rate hikes by 50 or 75 basis points. Switzerland and South Africa Central Bank are expected to raise interest rates this week. In addition, the European Central Bank Management Committee De Cos said it tends to raise interest rates more gradually to avoid excessive impact on the economy.
Due to the presence of numerous public holidays, overseas stock market trading is light this week. The UK is closed on Monday, Australia is closed on Thursday, and Japan is closed on Monday and Friday, which may intensify price fluctuations.
According to CCTV, German natural gas suppliers have restarted booking for the first time in three weeks for the natural gas transported by Russia through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline. However, natural gas transportation on the "Beixi No. 1" pipeline has not yet recovered, and international oil prices have turned higher after falling by more than 3%.
Before the Federal Reserve's decision, US stocks stopped falling for two consecutive days, raw materials and optional consumption led the rise, Xiaopeng Motors rose more than 7% , European stocks fell for five consecutive days
html Monday, September 19, under the pressure of the Federal Reserve's violent interest rate hike and the 10-year US Treasury yield hit a new eleven-year high, US stocks opened lower collectively, Dow Jones and Nasdaq opened more than 100 points on opening , and oil stocks followed the decline in oil prices.The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by more than 260 points or 0.9%, Nasdaq fell by more than 110 points or 1%, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 fell by 0.9%, and Russell's small-cap stocks fell by more than 1%. Energy, biotech and medical ETFs fell about 2%, while cruise, travel and finance stocks rose.
opened for one hour and all US stocks turned up. They turned collectively in the afternoon. turned up again at at the end of the trading session, stopped falling for two consecutive days and closed near the daily high. Last week, due to unexpectedly higher than expected inflation data, U.S. stocks fell for the fourth week in five weeks and hovered around two-month lows:
S&P 500 closed up 26.56 points, or 0.69%, to 3899.89 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 197.26 points, or 0.64%, to 31,019.68 points, returning to above 31,000 points. The Nasdaq closed up 86.62 points, or 0.76%, to 11,535.02 points. The Nasdaq 100 index closed up 0.77%, while the Russell 2000 small-cap stock rose 0.8% and returned to above 1,800 points.
Before the Federal Reserve's major decision, US stocks fluctuated in trading, and collectively turned to decline at the beginning of the session, fluctuated in the afternoon, and rose again in the late trading, leaving the two-month low S&P
financial blog Zerohedge said that the key technical level of the S&P 500 index is less than the 200-day moving average has lasted for 110 days, the longest cycle since the bear market from 2008 to 2009 and 2000 to 2002.
analysis said that whether S&P can return to above the 200-day moving average is a key technical indicator of the future trend
Star Technology stock only Microsoft fell. " Yuan Universe " Meta has risen by more than 1%, rebounding from its lowest level since January 2019. Amazon turns nearly 1%, leaving the lowest in the past two months. Google's parent company Alphabet turned slightly, rebounding from a new low of one and a half years. Netflix turned 1.5%, rising for four consecutive days to a one-month high. Apple rose 2.5% from a low in the past two months. Well-known analyst Ming-Chi Kuo said that Apple will increase the shipment volume of iPhone 14 Pro in the fourth quarter by about 10%. Tesla rose nearly 2%. Media said that Tesla China has expanded production again and the Shanghai Super Factory production line optimization project has been completed. Microsoft closed down slightly after falling more than 1%, setting a new low since March last year.
chip stocks also rose. Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 0.6%, and then turned higher after falling to a two-month low in the intraday session.AMD turns 0.3% and breaks from the two-month low. Intel rose 0.7% to rebound from a low since 2016, while Nvidia rose 1.4% to rebound from a new low since March last year.
Popular Chinese follow the U.S. stock market higher. Chinese ETF KWEB rose 1.5%, CQQQ rose 0.1%, and Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC) rose 1.6%. Among the four constituent stocks of Nasdaq 100, NetEase and Pinduoduo rose by more than 0.1%, while JD.com and Baidu rose by more than 2%. Among other stocks, Alibaba rose 1.6%, Bilibili rose 0.8%, Tencent ADR rose slightly, iQiyi rose 4.5%, "three fools in making cars" rose together, Xiaopeng Motors, which launched the first domestic mass-produced urban market scenario, rose more than 7%. Faraday Future fell 2.4%, sued by heavyweight shareholders, including the founder, and were asked to remove core executives. The battle for control is intensifying.
Other key stocks with large changes include:
Vaccine stocks fell. Moderna fell more than 7%, while BioNTech fell 8.6%, both reaching three-month lows. Novavax fell 6.5%, giving up the gains since May 2020, while Pfizer fell more than 1% to erase the gains in the month.
vaccine stocks fell, Moderna and BioNTech hit three-month lows, Pfizer erased the monthly gains Bluebird Bio rose more than 7% before the market, but turned more than 10% after opening to a six-week low, closing down more than 6% erased the monthly gains, The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved its Neurological gene therapy for children's rare and fatal brain loss disease.
Adobe fell 24% last week and then fell more than 1% on Monday, the lowest since April 2020. Wells Fargo lowered the rating from overweight to holding, saying that the acquisition of online design company Figma is a good product/strategic fit, but the $20 billion price lacks room for mistakes.
issued a profit warning, while , which fell 21% last Friday, turned more than 1%, still close to the lowest since July 2020. Last Friday, the largest single-day decline in startups' history also issued a pessimistic warning to the global economy of "significantly deteriorating".
Aggressive investor Starboard Value holds a 9% stake in web development platform company Wix, which rose nearly 16% to a five-month high.
American game company Take-Two Interactive's dozens of game scene videos were leaked by hackers, and are known as one of the biggest leaks in game history. The stock price fell by more than 3% and then rose by 0.7%, rebounding from the lowest level in a week.
"The first stock on the US cryptocurrency exchange" Coinbase fell by more than 9% at one point and gave up the increase since September 7. Bitcoin once lost $19,000, and South Korean prosecutors asked Interpol to issue a red wanted order to the founder of the stablecoin Terra.
investment bank KeyBanc directly raised the rating of US housing builders from "reduced holdings" to "increased holdings", with D.R. Horton and PulteGroup rising more than 3%. Lennar rose nearly 3%.
Pan-European Stoxx 600 index fell nearly 3% last week and fell slightly by 0.09% on Monday. The intraday turnover did not maintain its closing price, falling for five consecutive days to the lowest in the month. French and Russian national stock index closed lower, German and Italian stock index rose, and the UK closed for one day.
Some analysts said that any rebound before and after the Fed's FOMC decision this week should be regarded as an opportunity to take profits, and US stocks will further fall and the bear market low of less than 3,700 points in mid-June is measured. Concerns about the recession caused by hawkish interest rates hikes in central bank prompted investors to sell risky assets such as stocks again, which has been the new normal for Morgan Stanley in the near future.
Goldman Sachs lowered its 2023 GDP forecast, saying that hawkish interest rate hikes and tightening financial conditions mean that growth and employment prospects will deteriorate next year. It is expected that the unemployment rate will further rise in 2023 and 2024, and the possibility of a U.S. economic recession will increase to 35% in the next 12 months. The bank said that the Federal Reserve raised interest rates this year to 4%-4.25%, and will raise interest rates to a peak of 4.25%-4.5% next year and will not cut interest rates.
10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose above 3.5% intraday to an eleven-year high, and the two-year yield hit the highest in 2007 in 6 years
Hawks are about to raise interest rates, and U.S. Treasury yields for each term generally rose on Monday. The 10-year benchmark US Treasury yield jumped 7 basis points and rose by 3.52%, breaking through the 3.5% mark, the highest since April 2011. The intraday increase of US stocks narrowed and trading was 3.49%.
The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to monetary policy, once rose by more than 11 basis points to 3.97%, setting a new record of the highest since 2007. The intraday increase of US stocks narrowed and trading was 3.94%. The yield on 30-year long bonds rose by 5 basis points at one point, approaching the highest since 2014, which was set last week, and the U.S. stock market turned down during the session. One-year U.S. Treasury yields rose above 4%, and the key yield curve remained inverted, highlighting recession concerns.
Euro bond yields also rose. The yield on the 10-year German bond, as the euro zone benchmark, rose nearly 5 basis points to 1.80%, setting a new high since mid-June, with the two-year German bond yield hitting an eleven-year high of 1.62%. The 10-year Italian bond yield rose nearly 3 basis points to 4.07%, and the interest rate spread with German bonds remained about 227 basis points before the September 25 election.
Oil prices fell more than 3% and turned higher. U.S. oil returned to 85 USD 6 USD 90 USD 6, and European natural gas fell more than 6% to a two-month low
Oil prices stopped falling and turned higher. WTI October crude oil futures closed up $0.62, or 0.73%, at $85.73 per barrel. Brent 1 crude oil futures closed up $0.65, or 0.71%, at $92.00 per barrel.
The U.S. oil WTI, which is about to expire, fell by $3 or 3.5%, and fell by $82. The November futures, which are more active in trading, also fell by $3 or 3.5%, and fell by $82 on the day's low. The oil price of the U.S. stock market turned up and rose above $85 during the session. International Brent fell by $2.83 or 3.1%, losing at $89 for a time, and then returned to above $90 after turning higher.
analysis pointed out that oil fell due to demand concerns caused by the global economic downturn, the United Arab Emirates' plan to accelerate its oil production capacity, and the dollar's strengthening hovered at a 20-year high. The sanctions for Europe's comprehensive embargo on Russian oil before the end of the year have limited supply, and the transportation of "North Stream 1" has not yet recovered, all supporting oil prices.
European and American natural gas fell. ICE UK natural gas futures fell more than 6% and fell below 272p /kcal. European benchmark TTF Dutch natural gas futures also fell 6.4%. At the beginning of the European market, it fell nearly 8% to a two-month low since July 25, and rose to 340 euros on August 26. Germany, which is also a European benchmark, also fell by nearly 3% in the next year, while EU carbon tax futures fell by nearly 4%. NYMEX October U.S. natural gas futures closed down 0.15% at $7.7520 per million British thermal units.
USD fell at the end of the trading day and still hovered at the 20-year high. Bitcoin once fell below 1.9 0,000 USD to a two-year low
A basket of USD index DXY, which measures against six major currencies, rose 0.4% and rose above the 110 mark, approaching the highest since 2002 hit by 110.79 on September 7. US stocks fell at the end of the trading day and still traded at 109.60 to close to the 20-year high.
Euro barely stood firm against the US dollar, the pound turned higher against the US dollar and returned to above the 1.14 mark, hitting the 37-year low of 1.135 last week. The dollar stood firm above 143 against the yen, hitting a 24-year high of 145 last week. commodity currency AUD fell more than 1% against the US dollar at one point, and offshore RMB against the US dollar was less than 7 mark, maintaining a two-year low.
The Federal Reserve hawkish interest rate hike is imminent, investors sell risky assets, and the encrypted digital currency , which is closely linked to technology stocks, generally fell. Bitcoin, the leader with the largest market value, once fell below the integer of $19,000 to its two-year low, falling more than 7% in September, and is about to fall for two consecutive months. The second largest Ethereum once fell below $1,300 and hit a two-month low, falling 17% in September, which will be the worst performance in three months.
Spot gold fell nearly 1% at one point fell below 1660 USD, demand suppressed London metals, and London tin returned to the 20-month low
USD and US Treasury yields rose together to suppress gold prices. COMEX December gold futures closed down 0.3% at $1678.20 per ounce, not far from the low since April 2020. Spot gold fell by nearly $16 or 0.9%, once falling below $1,660.
analysis said that the world's largest physical gold trade center London gold market closed on Monday, making overall trading light. If the Federal Reserve confirms violent interest rate hikes this week, gold may push $1,600 down, and the impact of the US dollar is greater than the risk aversion demand for geopolitical conflicts and economic risks.
Demand outlook and a stronger dollar have caused London metals to fall. London copper fell slightly to $7,754, returning to its lowest since September 7.Lun Aluminum fell more than 1%, while Lun Tin fell 0.9% and fell below $21,000, returning to a 20-month low. Lun Zinc fell by more than 1% during the session and fell by half, and both Lun Lead fell for three consecutive days. But Lunnier, which led the rise last Friday and rose by more than $1,000, rose by another $345, or 1.4%.
ICE cotton futures fell more than 3% for the second consecutive trading day, hitting a six-week low since early August due to concerns about a global economic slowdown and a strengthening US dollar. CBOT US wheat futures fell by more than 4.5% during the session, and the strong US dollar may threaten US exports.
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