The current situation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict
The Ukrainian army has suffered more than half of the military's strength since the start of war. In fact, Russia is not in a hurry to launch a counterattack and pushes the front significantly forward. There are several main reasons. One is that if you are eager to push forward, the casualties will be relatively large, which is not conducive to the protracted war. With the current situation of the war, it is obvious that it will not be possible to achieve a quick victory in a short period of time. Therefore, controlling the rhythm is conducive to reducing casualties and achieving final victory. The second is to help eliminate Ukraine's vital forces. According to Ukraine's own statistics, as of early July, tanks and armored vehicles lost 3,935, 3,102 cannons lost, 724 rocket launchers and 234 aircraft lost, 137 helicopters lost, 1,479 drones lost, 353 air defense missiles lost, and 4,064 trucks lost. It can be seen that Ukraine has lost most of its important technical combat weapons. It can be said that in the first few days of the war, the core backbone structure of the entire Ukrainian military power had been eliminated. At that time, air supremacy was lost. They were all fighting on their own, and even failed to organize a counterattack of regiment or above within the first two or three months.
The destroyed Himas rocket launcher
In fact, the total force of Ukraine before the Russian-Ukrainian conflict was about 300,000. This is a relatively fully trained force. Excluding logistics, border defense, civil service, etc., the number of people who can go to the battlefield may be around 250,000, and there are also about 510,000 foreign mercenaries. However, after more than half a year of fierce fighting, the loss of troops has been very large. As of early July, the Ukrainian army had lost 260,200 troops, of which 54,300 died. The proportion of the Ukrainian army's casualties is in line with the basic proportion of casualties on modern battlefields, that is, the ratio of the number of deaths to the total number of casualties is about 1:5, so these numbers are still relatively reliable. Judging from the total number of casualties, the casualties since the war in Ukraine have almost all the troops served. This takes into account the deaths, serious injuries and loss of combat capabilities and the captured and still being detained. The irreparable losses may have reached nearly 100,000. Moreover, the soldiers who were supplemented later had no rigorous training, and some of them were almost not trained, and those who were temporarily arrested were on the front line.
Ukrainian Navy basically no longer exists
At present, the surface combat ships of the Ukrainian Navy have basically been eliminated, and only a few gunboats are still active in the inland rivers. It can be said that the Ukrainian Navy has basically no more. The Ukrainian Air Force is also almost exhausted and has a serious lack of pilots. The U.S. brother is recruiting fleeing Afghan pilots to assist the Ukrainian Air Force in combat. According to Western countries' assessments, the number of casualties in the Ukrainian army is currently between 6,000 and 20,000 per month. The Russian army suffered serious losses, but studying the casualties of the Russian army is not very meaningful. Because the military strength of Russia and Ukraine is seriously unequal, Russia's total strength is about two million. Although many of them are not strong in combat, they still have an absolute advantage in terms of military strength. The Russian army currently has two military forces in the state of rest and recuperation. It will be almost October when the troops are replenished and recuperated. Recently, it has decided to expand its troops by 137,000 more, and there is also the Belarusian army as a strategic reserve. It can be said that the Russian army is still very sufficient in terms of military strength.
From the perspective of fighting will, the Ukrainian army is not inferior to the Russian army. There is almost no situation in the battlefields of various places where they cannot withstand pressure and have large-scale fleeing. If they lose their positions, they will soon organize a counterattack. This is actually very beneficial to the Russian army. It can fight a war of attrition with Ukraine on the current front, strive to maximize the consumption of Ukraine's vitality, and avoid too much casualties. If the front line is pushed too fast and too far, on the one hand, the logistics supply line will be lengthened and the supply is difficult, and on the other hand, the logistics is easily hit. The front line is not very far from the Russian border, which can reduce logistical pressure and ensure the Russian army's advantage in ammunition replenishment.
Russian army currently has an advantage in ground artillery firepower
According to various news, the Russian army can maintain firing 40,000 to 70,000 large-caliber artillery shells every day.The Russian army's combat readiness habits left by the Cold War were still retained, and the shell reserves were in units of tens of millions of rounds, so there would be no problem in fighting for another year. The Ukrainian army had exhausted Russian ammunition as early as June. The subsequent weapons and ammunition supply almost all depended on supply from Western countries. The large-caliber shells that can be fired are only a few thousand rounds a day. It can be said that the firepower intensity has long been at a disadvantage, and the direct consequence is that the number of casualties will continue to rise rapidly. Although the Ukrainian army obtained the Himas rocket launcher from the United States, it also achieved some results. But the number is too small and the results are limited. Because the US military own stock of only about 40,000 Himas rockets, which can give Ukraine up to 10,000 or 20,000. This amount is only enough for one or two months, so you have to save some money in the end. In addition, the Russian Aerospace Forces are also focusing on attacking Ukraine's ammunition depot, and oil depot. A considerable portion of the ammunition aided by the West was destroyed by the Russian army even in the ammunition depot.
Beixi No. 1 natural gas pipeline has been completely closed
The Russian army has not launched a large-scale attack at present, but is actually waiting for the opportunity to drag and wait for change. Because Europe is about to enter winter, the cold weather in winter will affect both sides' military operations, but it is relatively more beneficial to the Russian army. Moreover, Russia and Europe are fighting to the death on energy issues, and the Nord Stream 1 natural gas pipeline has been completely closed. The entire European natural gas reserves are insufficient, and heating and cooking in winter are problems, which have a great impact on people's lives. The high energy prices are full of complaints from the people. The people of Czech have begun to protest, and there is a trend of spreading to other countries. These will further put pressure on European governments, making it more difficult for European countries to maintain sanctions on Russia.
But for Russia it is an energy exporter. Europe relies heavily on Russia's energy exports and cannot find alternative imports in a short period of time. Russia makes a lot of money by raising energy prices, and the ruble exchange rate is even strong. As long as the war is maintained, the heat of conflict is controlled and the total amount of energy put into the market is controlled, there is no fear of sanctions from Western countries. Not only are they not afraid of being able to differentiate and disintegrate Western sanctions, Hungary and Serbia stand on their own side to oppose sanctions against Russia. The bigger problem for the Americans and Europe is the economic crisis in the entire Western society and the financial crisis is imminent. High energy prices have a great impact on the economy, causing serious import inflation, and European and American inflation has hit new highs in 40 or 50 years. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the economic conditions of the United States and the West have already stood on the edge of a cliff. If they continue to fight, they will soon fall into a serious economic recession, the stock market and bond market collapse, and the financial market will experience a serious crisis.
Inflation in Europe and the United States hit a new high forty or fifty years
In this case, Russia doesn’t have to worry. Waiting for the winter of Western countries to enter the economic and financial crisis, they will launch a large-scale offensive and achieve a decisive victory in one fell swoop. By then, it will be even more difficult for Western countries to tighten sanctions on Russia. In turn, Russia can have an impact on the financial markets and economies of Western countries through the battlefield situation and energy markets. We can also take the opportunity to further promote de-dollarization. It can be said that Russia has great ideas about using this conflict to break the world's political, economic and military order currently controlled by the United States and Western countries. This is also a very good strategic opportunity for our country, and we can jointly create an external environment that is more beneficial to our country. Promote the internationalization of the RMB, gain time to achieve industrial upgrading, and break through the strategic industries such as semiconductors, software, and civil aircraft that are currently being thwarted.
It can be said that the strategic decisive battle of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict will be this winter. When the rest and recuperate Russian troops have finished rest and return to the battlefield, a large number of drones purchased from Iran are in place, after training is completed, and ammunition supply is sufficient, Russia can launch a strategic decisive battle. Ukraine is currently short of troops and has shortage of weapons and ammunition. In July, Western countries even completely stopped logistical and financial support for Ukraine. Moreover, Ukraine's sea and air supremacy have been lost, and the front line is now too long.If Russia launches a large-scale attack, it is very likely to quickly win Odessa and several states in central Ukraine. It is difficult for Ukrainian troops near Kharkov and Donbas to support Odessa. If the troops are divided, they will easily be eliminated on the road, and their original positions will be quickly lost. If the war is intensified, the Russian army can even use the strategic reserve team to launch a decisive assault from Belarus to Kiev .
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict was considered to launch an attack from Belarus to Kiev in the early days of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict
I believe that Russia will eventually win, successfully seize all coastal areas of Ukraine and all states in central Ukraine, and clear all Ukrainian troops in front of Kharkov and Donbas. As for whether the Russian army will take over the entire Ukraine, it depends on what Putin thinks about and . It is to leave several western states as buffer zones and then start negotiations to end the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Or take all of them to defeat Ukraine and completely block NATO outside Ukraine. This depends on Putin's judgment on the security situation in Europe as a whole. Let's wait and see if the Russian-Ukrainian conflict will come to an end this winter.
