During the period when Ma Ying-jeou was in charge of Taiwan, cross-strait trade ushered in unprecedented prosperity. Taiwan's early restrictions on Taiwanese businessmen's investment in the mainland were also lifted, and a large amount of capital exchanges were made between the Taiwan Strait, promoting social development between both sides. However, since Tsai Ing-wen came to power in 2016, cross-strait relations have deteriorated. Many people believe that the tension in the political situation will affect the economic and trade development between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait. However, Xie Jinhe, a famous celebrity on Taiwan’s island, believes that politics has no significant impact on trade. Moreover, since Tsai Ing-wen came to power, Taiwan has maintained a large surplus with the mainland, and has earned great benefits every year, and has also shown a trend of upward year by year. Xie Jinhe is a senior financial media person on Taiwan’s island. Although his ability is widely questioned, his judgment can also echo the recent speeches of Taiwanese semiconductor industry giants on both sides of the Taiwan Strait. I will tell you what the specific situation is.
Xie Jinhe
Xie Jinhe's history of success
Xie Jinhe was born in Xiluo Town, Yunlin County, Taiwan Province in 1958. It is a Fulao Hakka on the island of Taiwan. The Fula Hakka people refer to the descendants of the Taiwanese Hakka people who gave up Hakka dialect and used Minnan dialect. There are about hundreds of thousands of Fula Hakka people on the island, which is also a source of votes that cannot be underestimated. In the political arena on Taiwan, Lee Teng-hui, Tsai Ing-wen, You Xikun, and Jiang Qichen are all members of the Fula Hakka ethnic group. Xie Jinhe lived in Yunlin County for a long time. During his high school years, he entered the Affiliated High School of Taiwan Normal University in Taipei . After graduating from high school, Xie Jinhe was admitted to the Department of Corporate Management at the University of Political Science. After successfully graduating from the undergraduate degree, he studied in the degree from the Institute of East Asia at the University of Political Science. Shortly after leaving school, Xie Jinhe entered Taiwan's financial and press circles and served as the editor-in-chief of "Caixun Culture". , and his subordinates have gradually had a large number of famous people and commentators in the financial field. , the well-known " pickled vegetables " Huang Shicong is his subordinates. One of the most famous things about Huang Shicong is that mainlanders cannot afford pickled vegetables and are ridiculed by mainland netizens.
Huang Shicong
Hong Kong's ignorance and arrogance, Xie Jinhe is even more than that. Although Xie Jinhe has been deeply engaged in the financial field for a long time, his professional qualities have been questioned by the outside world. , especially his interpretation of the financial markets and other fields on the island, has certain deviations, so that some people mock him as the "beacon" on Taiwan's island. However, Xie Jinhe is at ease in the political and academic circles on Taiwan Island. He not only became an advisor to the Taipei Municipal Government after serving as mayor of Ke Wen-je. The recent Taipei mayoral election, Xie Jinhe also entered the camp of DPP candidate Chen Shizhong as policy adviser . Xie Jinhe also participated in the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Organization summit in 2016 and 2017. He is the leader and representative consultant of the Taiwan Provincial Team, which is also a very respected position. He is also an honorary professor at the CITIC Financial Management School in Tainan City and walked onto the three-foot podium. "This Weekly", which he serves as the publisher, is also a veteran financial publication that has been published since 1996, and has won awards in 2018 and 2019.
Xie Jinhe joined Chen Shizhong's campaign team
In addition to traditional paper media, Xie Jinhe's awareness is also very advanced and began to make arrangements in the field of TV media very early. He also personally hosted a TV program called "Lao Xie Watch the World". From a standpoint, Xie Jinhe is a famous vocalist and entrepreneur close to the DPP's green camp forces, but the DPP does not like him very much. He revealed that he had invited many economic officials within the Tsai Ing-wen government to serve as guests of the program, but no senior official responded. After 2020, Xie Jinhe began to constantly pour dirty water on the mainland, in an attempt to gain the attention of the top leaders of the DPP. Xie Jinhe not only constantly praises DPP Chen Shizhong on the issue of masks, but also does not forget to point the finger at the mainland and even deliberately create lies. Xie Jinhe has long been accustomed to lying, and he was once invited by the mainland to visit the automobile manufacturing plant.After returning to Taiwan after drinking and eating, he openly said in class: "The car skin in mainland China is very thin, and every press is one pit." 's remarks also caused laughter from the audience. As a result, these car companies became famous in the industry soon after, slapped Xie Jinhe in the face with their strength.
Xie Jinhe has a lot of contact with the semiconductor field
Because of professional relations, Xie Jinhe has a lot of contact with high-tech companies on the island, especially TSMC, the leader in the Taiwan stock market. Xie Jinhe wrote a special article as early as 2017 to warn companies on the island to be vigilant against the mainland . He quoted the view of Navarro , an expert in the United States hawks who is also a "pioneer in anti-China": " Taiwan High-tech enterprises should be vigilant. Relying on cheap production bases in the mainland will only repeat the mistakes of General Dynamics in the United States. ” Xie Jinhe also claimed that the mainland should further increase the extent of concessions, and perhaps Taiwan will consider surrendering. This is naturally a mockery in it, a strategy of humiliating the mainland to benefit Taiwan. When the United States sanctions mainland companies on the grounds of information security, Xie Jinhe even slandered that there were eavesdropping devices in mainland China's domestic mobile phones and stole personal information of mobile phone users.
Navarro
Today, the United States wants to set off a "chip war" again, and the DPP also wants to follow. Xie Jinhe was busy jumping out and speaking:
"South Korea's trade situation deteriorated, and South Korea's semiconductor industry originally changed from a surplus to a deficit with China. Taiwan should learn from South Korea and strive to consolidate the competitiveness of the semiconductor industry. The semiconductor industry is Taiwan The lifeline of this is that if Taiwan’s semiconductor industry is lost and there is no need to fight between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, Taiwan will be defeated. ”
Taiwan is now a pawn placed by the United States in East Asia, specifically used to deal with the mainland. The famous vocalists and "monarchs" on the island naturally have to build momentum for this plan. Xie Jinhe's speech also contrasts with the recent speeches of TSMC Chairman Liu Deyin , Lianhua Electronics founder Cao Xingcheng, and Acer Group founder Shi Zhenrong . They all stood under the camp of the Democratic Progressive Party in Taiwan and shouted to the mainland, and at the same time they also emphasized the importance of the semiconductor technology industry. In the future, semiconductors and other technology fields are likely to join the grand strategy of the Sino-US game, and chips may even become weapons to play an important role in this war without gunpowder.
chip
Why is the deterioration of cross-strait relations not much impact on trade
Semiconductors are the most valuable industry on Taiwan's island and are also one of the bulk products imported by the mainland. They play the role of cross-strait trade in A key role. Xie Jinhe also wrote in a recent article saying:
"Cross-strait relations have deteriorated, but the impact of politics on economy and trade is not significant. Since Tsai Ing-wen came to power in 2016, cross-strait relations have not been better. However, Taiwan has always maintained a large surplus with the mainland. For example, $78.36 billion in 2017, $82.7 billion in 2018, $73.66 billion in 2019, $86.57 billion in 2020, $104.7 billion in 2021, $60.28 billion in the first seven months of this year. "
from Judging from the long-term development trend, Taiwan is making more and more profits from the mainland, and one of the main entities of cross-strait trade is semiconductor chip . Perhaps it is precisely because of this trade situation that the island's financial media people like TSMC, UMC, and even Xie Jinhe dare to shout and clamor towards the mainland. Most of Taiwan's major semiconductor companies invest in and set up factories in the mainland, and the mainland is their largest consumer market. We could have done business together to communicate with each other and develop together. But once the war in the semiconductor chip field really starts, will these companies become the "vanguard" on the front line to deal with the mainland? This question is worth our careful consideration.
TSMC's current chairman Liu Deyin
Although Xie Jinhe's professional qualities are questioned, his judgment and inference this time are thought-provoking. In fact, he and the major business tycoons on the island emphasize one thing, that is, the importance of Taiwan’s semiconductor industry. As businessmen, they are unwilling to give up such huge interests, and Taiwan’s Tsai Ing-wen is determined to follow the United States and implement a “chip war” together. So these people can only choose to put pressure on the mainland that has always been kind, with the purpose of making the mainland concessions. These people are actually making a big bet with Taiwan’s most valuable core assets, and what they are betting on is the kindness and patience of the mainland. Xie Jinhe mentioned the growing trade surplus between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, which is their biggest bargaining chip. They seem to have seen the mainland's trump card clearly and think they are sure to win. If there is no strong response from the mainland, then in the future, more senior officials in Taiwan's business circles will surrender to Tsai Ing-wen and turn against each other.
University Electronics founder Cao Xingcheng
From an international perspective, the United States has issued the "Chip Act" and is determined to set off a bloody storm in the chip field. , and Tsai Ing-wen is also destined to resist stubbornly with this point, and there have been long heard on the island that it is going to ban the delivery of chips to the mainland. Xie Jinhe also wrote an article in recent media to praise Malaysia Former Prime Minister rejecting the investment and construction of the mainland's "Belt and Road" initiative, which is to let the news from the side. However, the chip industry is complex and upstream and downstream enterprises can affect the whole body. If you are not careful in handling it, it will affect the economic lifeline of Taiwan Province. This is also one of the reasons why Tsai Ing-wen has been holding back, but in the future, once the United States puts strong pressure on Taiwan, it will even directly and ruthlessly transfer TSMC's core unit to the United States. Then it is not ruled out that Tsai Ing-wen will take a desperate bet and become a pawn of the United States. We must also make plans for this. If the United States wants to set off a new " Cold War " pattern around the world, it will inevitably be full of tricks and tricks in the future. We must not only have the weapons to charge, but also always tie the fences at our doorstep to avoid the disaster of the wall.
TSMC
In recent years, the trade surplus between the mainland and Taiwan has indeed increased, and the outside world's perception is indeed not very good. Because Taiwan Island has also been continuously increasing the amount of military equipment purchased from the United States in recent years, and its defense budget has set new highs year by year. The amount of US arms sales to Taiwan that has been accumulated by is as high as US$14 billion. The island's defense budget in 2023 reached NT$586.3 billion . This figure has increased by 71.6 billion yuan compared with 2022, an increase of 13.9%, accounting for 13.9%, The ratio of GDP in Taiwan is about 2.4%. A considerable part of comes from trade profits, which is indeed worrying after thinking about it. Now our power has broken through the so-called "middle line of the strait", and has penetrated into Taiwan's coastal areas like a sharp knife. military exercises around Taiwan can also be regarded as a "outpost battle" of a war of unification, but Taiwan's island is still singing and dancing. In their own words, it is "horse running, dancing, dancing, dancing, dancing, and dancing", and it is still very arrogant. Essence The fundamental reason is that Taiwan still has enough golden support and economic savings are enough to support the Tsai Ing-wen administration.
PLA enters the waters of Hualien
1995-1996 The Taiwan Strait crisis shocked the entire island because we are determined to bring the economy and finance on the island at any cost. Confidence in the domain collapsed, the golden vein was loose, and a large amount of funds Flight caused a plunge in Taiwan's stock market. Only after the golden vein of was cut off, did the people experience obvious panic. In this way, while military exercises around Taiwan must also cut off Taiwan's golden veins and cause turmoil in the island's economic market. The DPP has always liked to throw dirty water on the mainland, and we gave Li Huitai to them as "intentional bribery." We have established commercial cooperation with all walks of life in Taiwan to open up markets and labor resources. The DPP said we are "raising condoms and killing". No matter what kind of goodwill we release, it will be maliciously interpreted by the Democratic Progressive Party on Taiwan Island. , then we might as well do it all the time and let the DPP authorities suffer the consequences. Even if we hurt one thousand enemies and eight hundred of them, we should show our determination and courage. If the Taiwan issue can lead to a new turning point, the price is also worth it.
Tsai Ing-wen colluded with external forces
The essence of merchants is profit-seeking. Liu Deyin of TSMC and Cao Xingcheng of Lianhua Electronics have both made huge commercial profits in the mainland. They are clamoring wildly now, it is nothing more than that of their interests and gains today, and they are still under pressure from the Americans. But they got the wrong target of venting. All the storms were not initiated by the mainland, and the culprits should be the United States and Tsai Ing-wen. The relationship between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait should have been a cooperative relationship. If we have to go to the level of competition and even confrontation, then the future outcome is destined to be a tragedy. Therefore, whether the mainland can completely solve the Taiwan issue becomes the key. Once this core is solved, the other problems will naturally be solved. I believe that relying on the wisdom of the Chinese people will definitely find a way to break the deadlock and let the external hegemony such as the United States completely leave the land of China.
