The swing in supply expectations is still the norm, and the prospect of Russian oil exports by sea is unclear.
html On August 9, the Russian Petroleum Pipeline Transportation Company stated that Ukraine has stopped transporting Russian oil transiting Ukraine through the southern route of the Friendship Pipeline to In Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic, market sources said the reason was the failure of Russian oil transport companies to pay for services due to EU sanctions. Judging from the actual impact, the conventional oil transportation volume of the southern line of the Friendship Pipeline is about 350,000 barrels per day, and the scale is relatively limited. However, for landlocked European countries such as Hungary, Russian pipeline oil is their main source of crude oil. This is also the reason why the EU exempted relevant countries from importing pipeline oil from Russia in the sixth round of sanctions against Russia. Currently, Russia and Hungary have stated that they are negotiating and studying solutions, and it is expected that there is a high probability of recovery in the short term. At the same time, it should also be noted that since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the quantity of Russian pipeline natural gas exported to Europe has continued to decline and the fluctuations have increased. This does not rule out the possibility of using energy as a tool for counter-sanctions. Although the oil market has not seen Russia actively cut off supply to Europe. , but the recent interruption of the Southern Line of Friendship has once again sounded the alarm for the stability of Russian oil exports under geopolitical conflicts. Recently, Russia's seaborne crude oil exports have remained relatively stable, but there has been no substantial progress in measures such as price restrictions on Russian oil exports in Europe and the United States. In the context of the later period when the EU's exemption period for Russia's seaborne oil sanctions is gradually approaching, fluctuations in supply expectations are still the norm. Under the baseline expectation, a decrease in Russian oil exports next year is expected to be inevitable.
In comparison, OPEC+’s production increase has slowed down, and may no longer be the main source of deviations in supply-side expectations in the future. Last week, OPEC+ held its 31st ministerial meeting and decided to increase agreed production in September by 100,000 barrels per day month-on-month. It also emphasized that the current remaining production capacity is limited and that production needs to be increased cautiously to cope with unexpected supply disruptions. Since the June meeting had brought forward the 432,000 barrels/day quota originally scheduled for September production increase to July and August, there were certain differences in the production market in September. After the meeting results were announced, oil prices briefly rose during the session, but it did not become a sustained trend. drive. OPEC+'s production target for September is 43.955 million barrels per day, which is about 1.5 million barrels per day away from its benchmark volume of 45.485 million barrels per day for this round of production increase. After excluding Russia's production increase space, only 1 million barrels per day are left, and production will increase slowly in the future. The probability is higher.
Demand is not strong during the peak season, but the marginal negative effects are limited
Long-term demand concerns caused by the expected recession at the macro level are still pressuring the oil market. At the micro level, EIA weekly data shows that the apparent weekly gasoline consumption in the United States fell from 9.245 million barrels per day. To 8.541 million barrels per day, there is a significant gap compared with the level of about 9.2 million barrels per day in the same period last year. However, from the perspective of the demand cycle of crude oil, since we are still in the recovery cycle of travel activities after the relaxation of global epidemic control measures, there is a certain mismatch with other industrial products. The current recovery trend of overseas jet fuel demand is still continuing. In 22-23, oil Annual demand growth rate is 2 million barrels /day is difficult to reverse. Short-term concerns are mainly reflected in the recurrence of epidemics and the negative feedback of high oil prices on European and American gasoline consumption. However, judging from the rapid decline in gasoline crack spreads, prices may have relatively fully responded to seasonal weak transactions. , the marginal disadvantages in the later period are relatively limited.
Market Outlook: There is no bearish trend, focus on the previous low support
In the long term, the downward trend of oil prices requires the supply of bad news to realize and then trade the inventory inflection point expectations. Judging from the persistence of recent negative factors, at the micro level, the gasoline peak season is less than expected and it is difficult to continue trading, while the expected trading on the prospects for the Iranian nuclear negotiations may continue to swing. Judging from the baseline expectations, there is no basis for a substantial accumulation of inventories in the second half of the year. The accumulation of U.S. commercial inventories is mainly driven by the release of strategic petroleum reserves. The overall low inventory of oil products does not support a bearish trend, and prices are still high and wide. Treated with a wide range of shocks.
This article comes from SDIC Anxin Futures Research Institute
